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However, these poll results are pretty useless unless Rasmussen is going to start including Rich Whitney. The guy is going to be on the ballot, and while most people assume he'll take votes away from Blagojevich, he might actually pick up Democrats that were leaving Blagojevich anyway and take them away from Topinka.
Without Whitney, these results are meaningless.
Whatever the case, he is not over 50% in either poll which obviously is usually a bad sign but she is so low that it might be ok.
Meanwhile despite Judy Bore's phantom plans and whining about debate she is still losing.
and another month has gone by
Tic Toc
Blago's bigest lead is behind him. The challenge is whether Judy and her campaign staff can make this happen. An open question . . .
It’s probably more like, Judy-34, Rod-47.
Just my humble opinion.
No one really likes the incumbant.
No one really likes the challenger.
I don't see how this can be good for Topinka. On election day folks will be asking themselves, why should I trade one bum for another.
I still think her saying that she would raise our Income taxes has alot to do with her polling so low. I don't think she can change that because the hard working people of Illinois want and need to keep their hard earned money and when they go to the polls they won't vote for someone who wants to raise their taxes.
corvax, sad democrat reading the glowing statement of support of Paul Vallas from U.S. Congressman Chaka Fattah as PV's contract in Philly comes up for extension
These results look bad for Rod, slightly better than poor for Judy and awful for Illinois. Bring on the debates, lets get some real meat into this race.
As long as the checks keep coming, let Rome burn.
What happens after Labor Day will be telling. If Rod can bury her in September, when people start thinking about elections, it's over. But if Judy can start raising her profile with the general public--read that people who have lives outside of politics and who don't hang around these blogs--then she could be in the game.
They've polled this every month but one since January. In that time, the numbers have flipped, from Topinka up eleven, to Blagojevich up eight. By my math, that's a nineteen-point swing.
How exactly do you define success. By party, I'm guessing.
The number in the Rasmussen poll this week are probably closer to reality than Blago's own wishful polling. I attended a very successful Judy fundraiser downstate. What surprised me was the number of locally prominent Dems in our area who showed up at the Judy event, some with (large) checks.
The anger at Blago in this part of the state rivals the anger at Bush up north.
I would safely say that if the Protect Marriage Referendum doesn't get on the ballot, that conservatives don't really have a reason to come out on election day. This could be a bad sign for ALL republican races in the state.
I know several conservatives that have tried to get in contact with the Topinka Campaign, end up having to leave a message and calls aren't returned. When it comes to getting support (especially this early in the game), I'd say it's best to call these people back (hire interns if you must!). It's not like they are running TV Ads, doing Literature Blitzs, Parades everyday, etc etc... I'd say someone in the top of the Topinka campaign could return some phone calls even if it's just doing it to be respectful.
The Topinka campaign can't afford to alienate ANYONE especially a large portion of her own party.
Rod's numbers show he is cornered. It will take more time yet to see if Topinka's zombie will catch up by November. As soon as they start spending what little money they have - it should.
Oh, and by the way, in that movie - as soon as Rod runs out of bullets - Fitzgerald's mummy hand appears from behind Rod and grabs him by the head as Blagojevich screams.
More popcorn anyone?
She really hasn't started yet. If Blago couldn't build up a 30+ lead with millions of dollars, than he is going to have problems in the homestretch.
Ashur Odishoo
Candidate
State Representative 11th District
It has to be all the speculation about indictments.
Whitney still has to get on the ballot for Rasmussen, or any other pollster, to appear with Rod and Judy. And the Dems aren't behaving in a way that I would consider very fair or democratic (and those cynics who say that's just the hardball nature of politics -- screw that -- it shows a lack of confidence, class, trust and integrity in the system). The Dems have chosen to tie up things for the Greens at the State Board of Elections, which will likely set back the Greens until the end of August, when the Board has to make their decision.
Even then, assuming Whitney (or anybody else) is included on a poll, they still need to reach a 5 to 10 percent polling threshold to be invited to a debate, according to at least two sponsor guidelines of which I'm aware. A recent SurveyUSA poll (released on 7/25) found that 17 percent of those polled put "other" as an alternative to Rod and Judy. It would be really interesting to see how an actual name, such as Whitney's, would register in a poll. Even then, look what happened to Cal Skinner in 2002. Ryan and Blago refused to be in a League of Women Voter's debate because they invited him to the table. What kind of message does that send to debate sponsors, not to mention voters? And still some wonder why people are fed up with politics and politicians ...
"You can’t win the election without winning downstate..."
Lee, how do you figure that? How do you explain Kerry's IL win, for starters? It sure as heck didn't come from downstate.
But the debates will clinch it for Blago when Topinka's wackiness is on public display again. Her own mouth is her own worst enemy. She's not up to the job and it's pretty obvious to anyone but the most frothy Blago haters.
At least when I listen to Judy she sounds sincere. I can't say the same thing for Rod. Rod always sounds disingenuous and will change his story as it suits him.
If this lifelong Dem votes for Rod, the only reason will be so the Dems can have a clear shot at the 2010 remap. That's it.
All former staffers know he never was interested in policy. Only himself. That's not totally bad, but this guy takes it to such a level that it makes me sick. Its all about him. Rod and no one else. No loyality. Its all Rod's ego. That'w why he has not been able to move up in the polls.
She is showing herself to be quite prudent in her conservation of funds until closer to the election when all of those dippy undecided voters (how much corruption from the incumbent do you NEED to make up your mind?) will start paying some real attention.
Think about it. You know your GOP base will back you, and you know that centrist Democrats aren't thrilled with Blago being known as "Public Official A," so who's left? The undecided voters.
Not an expert on this stuff at all, but it would seem wise for her to work smarter and not harder by conserving her money to get her message out closer to election time. Meanwhile, Rod has wasted money on the same negative attack ads that kept running over and over, ad nauseam, and he could very well have saved some of that money for later in the campaign. He's got plenty! Why waste it just because it is there? Not very prudent of him in my opinion.
I think the gap will close and Judy will take the lead when all of the female voters who are still swooning over the pretty-guy's perfect hair wake up and realize that this specimen of so-called "testicular virility" needs to pay more attention to the books and not his looks when it comes to the Illinois economy.
The redhead is coming to get ya, Rod.
And come on Angie, get real. Women are more likely to be the most embarrassed by Topinka.
Topinka's biggest weakness is that she thinks what people want in a Governor is a "genuine person" who gruffly says the first think that comes into her brain, doesn't care if everybody knows she shops at the Salvation Army, and has a lasse faire attitude toward her appearance.
If judy would tone down the clown hair and make-up, stick to her campaign's talking points, and try to smile for a few months, she might make up ground.
They won't admit it, but 30% of voters pick the candidate they least mind listening to on the radio or seeing on t.v. That killed Gore, Kerry, Dole and Bush 41.
/www.nwherald.com/MainSection/374396540421475.php
So hold your nose and vote for her anyways. Rod has appointed people connected to Nation of Islam's head bigot, for crying out loud. The nice Minister (yes, I'm being sarcastic) once went on a global tour to visit all of the sitting dictators of the world.
You don't like Judy for "hypocricy" (check the spelling on that, lest you appear to have graduated from a Chicago Public School), but Rod is appointing people who were top aides to dictator-loving lunatics to his hate crimes panel.
"And come on Angie, get real. Women are more likely to be the most embarrassed by Topinka."
I'd do something else with the hair, to be honest (like grow it already), but I want Rod OUT. He's screwed up Illinois too much. Just get him out out out.
Re: "Topinka’s biggest weakness is that she thinks what people want in a Governor is a 'genuine person' who gruffly says the first think that comes into her brain, doesn’t care if everybody knows she shops at the Salvation Army, and has a lasse faire attitude toward her appearance."
Personally, she looks like someone who might care more about Illinois than her hair (unlike Rod, who must fuss over his more than Bon Jovi does his).
"If judy would tone down the clown hair and make-up, stick to her campaign’s talking points, and try to smile for a few months, she might make up ground."
I agree she needs a serious makeover, but thank God this isn't Helen Thomas running (I'm still laughing at Tony Snow telling Thomas to stop "heckling the teacher" here).
"They won’t admit it, but 30% of voters pick the candidate they least mind listening to on the radio or seeing on t.v. That killed Gore, Kerry, Dole and Bush 41."
30% of voters are idiots? No, I agree that it does make you cringe when you have to look upon Kerry. He reminds me of Lurch from the Addams Family...even after the Botox.
But please! Let's all get over vanity and realize that Rod, who got all chummy with a top aide to the head bigot of the Nation of Islam, is just behaving like a reckless, lax about security, well-dressed pretty boy who cares more about his hair than the sorry state of the Illinois economy.