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I owe you an apology. Yesterday I wrote that there was no chance that voter turnout would reach your prediction of 50,000. This morning, the Chicago Board of Elections web site shows TO of 49,753.
I tip my hat to you, sir. You were right and I was wrong.
2) I am laughing at my alderman, the vaunted Gene Schulter of the 47th Ward. He endorsed Fritchey and yet the ward went to Quigley. Hey Gene, you've alienated a lot of folks with your eminent domain/development shenanigans on Western Avenue.
And let's hope that more voters join in the reform
movement. Lots of elections coming up in 2010; plenty of opportunities to come out for reform. Let's home the reform-minded haven't exhausted themselves around this one little election. After all the Machine has probably only begun to fight.
SEIU does not regret our expenditure. We made a principled endorsement of Sara. She had been a champion for our members in Springfield and we felt she would have been a strong voice for healthcare reform in DC. There are no other races this year, so it is not as if we could better spend that money elsewhere. You obviously can't win all of the time but we think it is important to make principled endorsements and make sure our endorsement means something. Win or lose, we want candidates to know that when SEIU endorses we are going to do all we can for them. Obviously, it is much more difficult to have an impact on federal races. That said, SEIU thinks Mike Quigley will make a wonderful congressman. We have a very good relationship with Mike and we'll do all we can to support him. The big lessons from this election are that the upcoming election cylce will be difficult for incumbents. There is a great deal of voter anger out there over the Blago, Burris, Stroger scandals and some current office holders will probably pay the price. Second, the Democratic Machine is dead and buried. They delivered nothing for John Fritchey. So, look for independent candidates to do well for the next election or two and don't worry about getting the Party's endorsement. It won't help anyway.
Why could Alvarez make the only-female-in-the-race formula work and Feigenholtz couldn't?
Quigley running against Todd Stroger seemed like a goofy message to get votes to go to Congress. Do voters hate Stroger so much they wanted to send a message? Do voters think Congress and the federal government are the same kind of rip-off as the county board and county gov't?
Does a Quiqley victory mean newspaper endorsements are more relevant?
What's it say about organized labor that neither organized labor candidate won?
How important was it that the timeline was so short? Is it possible that candidates like Fritchey and Feigenholtz were able to get their name ID up, but that there's a lag between when the voters know a candidate's name and when the voters become comfortable electing the candidate?
Are ward organizations waning in influence? Why?
What role did the economy play?
FYI O'Conner lost, Quigley won. Who cares about a single ward
I think another factor in this election is the strong dislike of John Fritchey. Something about him rubs a lot of people the wrong way. And it could be any of many factors. This is initially evident by the fact that Fritchey could not clear the field-- a lot of Feigenholtz and O'Connor voters would have gone for him. It is now clear that all of his "organization" support could not overcome a likely negative response to Fritchey climbing up the greasy pole. He fought for years to gain control of the 32nd Ward organization and the result for him there were decidedly underwhelming. When your neighbors don't even support you, what does that say?
I talked to several Polish voters who expressed these feeling too me-even though they expected the good doctor to not win.
Every ward organization cares about their performance in their sphere of influence, their ward. They couldn't control what happened in other places but they showed that they are a powerful force in their ward by having one of the best turnouts and carrying their endorsed candidate even though he ran a flawed campaign overall.
The vaunted 39th ward organization is anything but dead and they don't like bussed in. out of district, paid for "volunteer" workers invading their turf. Candidates discount the 39th reg dems at their own risk!
Good point. I was not trying to diminish the 39th's performance...and they should be proud of their efforts, but just wanted to point out that carrying a ward is not winning anything. Or maybe a better way to say it is they won a battle but were slaughtered in the war.
Now if you want to say that BOTH O'Connor and Forys spoiled the election for Fritchey and that he could have found a 2,275 vote advantage among those 12,500 votes, I'd be much more likely to agree with you but it's still not for sure.
Overall I think this race confirms that voters are fed up with Todd Stroger and Mike Quigley won because he's been fighting against him for years.
- Because Feigenholtz was not a down-the-ticket candidate. The only-female-in-the-race, vote splitting, etc. only work effectively when people are not familiar with the candidates. I believe that the vast majority of people who voted in this election specifically cared about **this** race OR did enough research to make an educated choice.
==Quigley running against Todd Stroger seemed like a goofy message to get votes to go to Congress. Do voters hate Stroger so much they wanted to send a message? Do voters think Congress and the federal government are the same kind of rip-off as the county board and county gov’t?==
I don't think it is about running against Stroger, however, it is about proving you have taken principled & consistent stands. If you believe past behavior is a good predictor for the future, then Quigley standing up against Stroger is very relevant.
==Does a Quiqley victory mean newspaper endorsements are more relevant?==
In this race I think they were extremely important. With a compressed cycle & not a ton of mainstream press, I think it provided some good research to push voters over the edge.
==Are ward organizations waning in influence? Why?==
I think ward organizations influence is inversely proportional to:
- The number of voters who were raised in the suburbs, but now live in the city.
They are very simply not used to being pushed to vote a certain way -- they think it is offensive.
- Higher Education. This is a very simple generalization, however, if you look at the neighborhoods were the machine was not successful they are nicely matched with 'hot' or gentrifying areas, i.e. 'newcomers' buying 500K houses.
Just my opinion
What is the real story on how Quigley's replacement will be choosen? I have heard it will be the other County Commissioneres, I have heard it will be Todd, I have heard it will be the Democratic Ward Committeeman -- which is true?
Secondly, the commentor who said that O'connor was in the race to split up the the Irish vote and defeat Quigley is mistaken. The Daleys grew up thinking that for the most part, going to Congress in a lateral transfer, if not a demotion for local office-holding pols, a means of getting trouble-makers out of the way. (After all, how many jobs does a Congressman control?) Getting that ninth vote on the County Board (without having to cater to the whims of the Republicans or a total jerkhead like Larry "the Lobbyist" Suffredin) was well worth giving Quigley a few years at playing Congressman, at least until Rahm Emanuel comes back to reclaim the job (which he will now almost certainly will come 2012).
Don't be shocked if Pat O'Connor, who has far more of his 40th Ward in Quigley's County Board District than in the 5th congressional district, is selected by the party bosses as Quigley's County Board replacement. That way, the Daleys can reward O'connor for playing the Spoiler in Tuesday's election while letting the independents and reformers know just how big a bunch of chumps they are.
And with "no other races" to spend on and pulling out all the stops and $300k+, a third place showing--behind a fraction of the Machine--is not good.
How can you say your endorsement was principled? You said yourself this was about "anybody but Fritchey" in your "debates" with Bill.
Count this Republican as one more vote for Quigley (not that he'll need it)
There you go again. You don't have to end every comment with a personal attack.
If your "leaders" don't care about you wasting over $300k on a fringe candidate then your outfit is being run even worse than I thought. Give it a rest, loser.
Better yet try spending some of that money to negotiate a decent contract for a change.Hire less hacks and more experts. Your rank and file might be more effective if you could get them better than minimum wage. The newly "organized" members are going to make less money than they are now after you make them pay dues.
He can cause problems for the Daley and Stroger patronage armies and he brings awareness of Daley's slush fund to the public.
Quigley won't be making any noise about TIF's or sales tax rates or any of these other things anymore. He's at the bottom of the seniority pool in a body of 435 people.
He's no longer an annoying gadfly for the powers that be in Chicago.
I don't think it is quite accurate to say the machine is dead. Or at least, it is no more accurate than saying big labor is dead. The AFL-CIO backed Fritchey and the SEIU backed Sara and both lost. It's just as easy to say big labor couldn't deliver for those two as it is to say the machine couldn't.
Also, just like big labor, the "machine" was split with some backing O'Connor and some Fritchey.
It seems this election is a good example of confirmation bias. Whatever you thought before the election is what came true, no matter what. When someone wins with as few votes/percent as Mike, and in an election with so many candidates, I don't think it is wise to draw many, if any, lessons from it.
I was a 47th ward judge. There were people who came to vote for Quigley who didn’t know which party he belonged to. (They had to know that before they could take a ballot and we got to help them figure it out. And then, as I have pointed out before, we judges get to see how you vote as your ballot goes in the scanner.)
The April election will be fascinating. We will now see every voter who is there because the ward "boss" told them to vote. Who else is going to bother?
(Sara looked haggard in her commercials. Looks count; there’s loads of research on it. Wasn’t Alvarez both the only woman and the only Hispanic on the ticket?)
Bill- We can all disagree without being uncivil. This thread is about the IL05 election, not SEIU's competence as a union. Calling LaborGuy a "loser" after chiding him for a personal attack is hardly fair.
This is over, hatchet buried, done and done.
There is a vehemently ignorant and intolerant person running against Mike right now on the Republican side.
The bickering in the comments does nothing to move the ball forward.
Good for SEIU for putting their foot forward, they care about things that really matter to people and they fight. Win, lose or draw, you can't ever take that away from them.
AFL, and I say this as a former Laborer, has done more for working people, wages, health care and government than pretty much any organization across the country.
Commissioner Quigley has set the example that open arms are to be extended.
Both he and I would appreciate it if people come back together and we follow the example our president has set. Let the clenched fists go, open your hands and reach back out.
We have a really big mess out there in government and the economy, as Rich covers today, and we really need everybody to pitch in and fix things.
BOWEN
You know I have been pounding her ringers on this site for their sanctimonoius support of "Saint Sara". The voters saw though her and opted for a guy who has stood out on his own, dropped out of the Cook Cty. President race for Claypool, and has bashed the Todder over and over again in public! Yay! Sometimes the god guy wins!
I believe that Quigley entered the race with built-in advantages, and the collapsed schedule leading to the special primary created extreme difficulty for any candidate to change that dynamic.
For example Quigley had the most constituents in the district. He had by far the highest name recognition and support in initial polling. He had the strong endorsements of both papers. And though two candidates outspent him he had plenty of money.
Those built in advantages in this race looked like the advantages of an incumbent. The very tight schedule, tuned out voters and skimpy media coverage, made it easier for Quigley to preserve those advantages. He did not have to build, just to hold what he started with.
This is to take nothing away from the candidate and his campaign. It's just to say that while I wish there was a real, abiding and deep current of support for reform and independence - as Quigley and some observers are now claiming - I don't think this race offers much if any evidence that there is.
And the other big winner last night was the Strategy Group who not only did the Quigley mail, but had alumns Tom Bowen (campaign manager) and Billy Weinberg (Communications) in key positions.
Sara will still be fighting for us in Springfield, and will probably have more influence/power in Springfield vs. D.C.
The difference between Sara and Mike is small and I believe endorsements by both papers did have an influence.
It was an INTERESTING race no doubt.
Spoke with Sara and she is ready to head back to the "budget" battle in Springfield. :-)
Tom Bowen did not win the Special Election for Foster last year. A very good, polite and much more organized individual from Pen. came in, treated local elected officials and volunteers with respect, ran a good ground game and won the race. Moreover, he gave the credit to the volunteers and the workers.
Bowen screwed the pooch on Super Tuesday when he wasted over $2 million against an opponent who spent $100k and only won by 300+ votes. While a win is a win is a win it proved that Tom had a lot to learn about respect and field organizing.
Obviously Tom learned something from that as we should all do in live - learn by our mistakes. The proof is in the pudding with his extraordinary work on the Quigley race. For that he deserves a LOT of respect.
Ditto and congratulations again.
She did relatively better in the lakefront highrises, than the less dense areas to the west.
Maybe some loyalty for his fealty on the city council. No doubt also an attempt to hurt Quigley, who Daley loathes.
In either event, it didn't accomplish much. People have had it with business-as-usual insiders, and that worked to Quigley's advantage.
Geez, don't pull your punches now, chief! So, if someone breaks into your home & steals your stuff, are you "vehemently ignorant and intolerant" if you take issue with it and call the police? Or, is THAT type of criminal not covered under your political correctness policy?
We were sent up to help Fritchey. Maybe others were sent up to help O'Connor but not our guys.
This race was over all of our paygrades when it came to predicting. I don't think the Daley's cared but were just sending in troops because they were asked by a loyal soldier. Or maybe they really did want Quigley up and out.
This was said before the final outcome was known so I suspect she was reacting to the poor showing by Fritchey in a ward that was dominated by Schulter's people doing GOTV all day.
We just ran a campaign that stayed true to Mike. And Bowen (as well as Anna Valenica and crew) made every dollar work, and every hour mean something. Great team.
As with Barack, winning is a heck of a lot easier when you have the best candidate in the race.