I wish John Stroger good health. But, whether he lives or dies, the Great Democrat Machine could care less. They will extract the precinct vote and elect John and/or appoint a replacement in the General Election. Someone trustworthy and loyal to the machine. Not Mr. Claypool.
DOWNSTATE
· 3 years ago
Too much up in the air for anyone ,no matter how good their track record is, to predict this election.
Skeeter
· 3 years ago
I am willing to bet that the predications are completely accurate, with the exception of state treasurer. There has been too much bad publicity for Alexi. Plus, he has a long foreign name. Illinois still doesn't like long names. If Alexi wins, it will be in a squeaker.
grand old partisan
· 3 years ago
um, skeeter....one word for you: 'Blagojevich'
Just Observing
· 3 years ago
Here's why Mangieri will win... while Alexi is beating Mangieri in the Trib's recent poll (something like 31% to 18%), it is not by a very large margin and certainly nowhere close to the 50% plus 1 needed to win. So, all the undecideds are going to cast their votes on a whim and Mangieri has the machine field operation to push him over the top on election day. Alexi has no field operation and minimal elected officials with field organizations supporting him -- couple that with Alexi's bad press (although I think that will have a minimal impact).
Skeeter
· 3 years ago
GOP,
One word: RYAN.
Anyone can beat a Republican named Ryan in Illinois.
Overall, my point stands. People like to talk about how open-minded they are, but they will vote for a guy named "Paul" any day over a guy named "Alexi." From personal experience, I can tell you that most people can't tell a Greek name from a Saudi name, and those same people just don't like foreigners.
Stavros Popodopolis
· 3 years ago
What's a radical arctivist?
zatoichi
· 3 years ago
How do I become a member of the "radical acrtivists"? Great band name.
VanillaMan
· 3 years ago
Rich, your predictions are only correct from March's perspective. But thats only fair. You will probably need to revive your November predictions by about 5%. It isn't much, but considering what we are seeing in March, your predictions ain't bad!
VanillaMan
· 3 years ago
OOOps! I meant Don's predictions!
Marta Elena
· 3 years ago
I love his Don's bio. I admire people who can work on both sides of partisan politics.
Rich,
Can we get a list of those radical activists? BTW - thanks for the cig.
Rich Miller
· 3 years ago
You're welcome. But it was two cigs.
Schiznitz
· 3 years ago
Nobody knows nor cares about Treasurer. Giannoulodopoulousias bought a ton of billboards and press in Chicago. People will vote on recognition alone. Sad, but true.
Marta Elena
· 3 years ago
My bad.
grand old partisan
· 3 years ago
skeeter, point taken, but didn't Rod Blagojevich beat a guy named "Paul" in the 2002 Primary? Didn't a guy whose name sounds much more Arab/Saudi than Alexi’s beat out a guy named “Dan Hynes†in the 2004 Primary?
I don't think you are giving the voters of this state much credit.
North of I-80
· 3 years ago
How accurate are Don Rose predictions? The prospect of Rod re-elected by 3 points ruined my day.
LaMont Cranston
· 3 years ago
The Shadow knows that some of the radical activists Don Rose has worked for include Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Tom Hayden, Dick Gregory and Barry Commoner. Some of them even qualify as "arctivists." Mario Cuomo probably doesn't count as an arctivist.
Mr. Anon
· 3 years ago
Didn't Mr. Independent collect most of his $ cash from state agencies under direction from Blinky Jim Edgar? He is right Brickett being a drag on the GOP ticket. Statewide mail, radio and ground troops will be enough to send ALexi bank to the bank to wait for the Feds to show up with quetions about all the loans to "Jaws" Stroget tops Forest cuase they did not stay negative. Wonder how the dream team will do with Duckworth. Kinda funny the trib did not poll there
DC
· 3 years ago
Rich is corrrect (Rich I think I heard that stement somewhere earlier from a very smart guy.) about it being Madigan's field vs. Barack's star power through the media. People will vote for Paul because of someone they know connected with the state party or because they know he's a downstater. They'll vote for Alexi because they know Barack is behind him or because he's from Chicago. Again, this is the primary and tose who vote in primaries tend to have their minds made up for them by someone else or on their own, but I don't think they pick a random name as much as you might see in the general election. Maybe I'm wrong on that....
Bubs
· 3 years ago
As a Republican, I look forward to Alexi winning the Democratic primary!
Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid.
SenorAnon.
· 3 years ago
First off, folks, "Mangieri" isn't exactly "Smith." And on the ballot, he's listed as "Alexander," a name I'm pretty sure most have heard.
Second, the Tribune negatives came a little late in the game - and I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest people downstate couldn't care less what the Chicago Tribune has to say - and people in the Chicago area aren't going to be swayed by two articles that the overwhelming majority won't have read or heard about.
Third, even a really good field operation - when backed only by a sporadic, sundry mail program, will have a tough time beating three weeks of TV.
Don't think Glenn Poshard 1998 - because there were three other candidates to carve up the Chicago-area vote, and it was top of the ticket.
SenorAnon.
· 3 years ago
"Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid."
How do you figure? Obama isn't some township committeeman or village trustee. He is -for everything that is right and wrong with this- BARACK OBAMA.
Is Tom Dart not going to be Sheriff? Are we checking the voting history of Senator Hynes?
No doubt he's powerful...but he's hardly omnipotent (though as a Republican, you can be forgiven for thinking so - because he does own your party).
Bubs
· 3 years ago
“Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid.â€Â
"How do you figure? Obama isn’t some township committeeman or village trustee. He is -for everything that is right and wrong with this- BARACK OBAMA."
Becasue:
1. Alexi is going to look like swiss cheese after the investigative reporters are done with him. They already view him as utterly inept in handling the press, which is just the way they want it. Plus, I hear there is more there than a gun shop.
2. Madigan never forgets.
Anonymous
· 3 years ago
Don Rose was washed up 20 years ago. Birkett will be a big asset for the ticket. He will hammer away at Rod and force the Mighty Quinn out of his bunker and force him to defend the massive corruption of Rocket Rod. Can't wait to hear Quinn explain all those federal investigations away. Topinka and Birkett will campaign a lot in Cook County and both have strong pockets of support in the inner suburbs.
HeKnowsBarack
· 3 years ago
And remember even after Alexander blames all the bank stuff on others he can start explaining why he needed to take some cash from Kevin Flynn of Emerald Casino fame
Realist
· 3 years ago
Madigan is powerful and could have some effect on most normal politicians in Illinois. But Obama is way beyond him now. In any case, Madigan is not going to cross swords with the second most admired politician in America (just behind Rudy and just ahead of McCain, according to a recent poll) because he happened to be on the other side in one fairly minor primary campaign.
ClosetedSkeleton
· 3 years ago
You go anon. Birkett work to execute his strategy at any cost...evidence be damned! He'll hold hold him to the fire like an estranged spouse you just can't take anymore...
the Patriot
· 3 years ago
The polls and predictions will be shown to be off in the republican races for several reasons. JBT may win, but margin will be alarming. Still have hopes of the Obe ones coming to their senses and finding Bill Brady.
Regardless, the polls, both the Trib and Post dispatch weigh heavily in Chicago. This skews a bit in a normal year but when the gov has nailed down state for 3 years there is an uncalculatable X factor on whether those extra downstaters will go to the polls.
For both elections you have to consider the state employee factor. There are almost 100k of them plus family and friends puts about 250+ votes which do not show on the polls. They do not poll their true voice out of fear and they won't vote in a primary because they have seen friends disappear in a Stalin like elimination of political enimies of the state. The state employees won't vote on March 21, but their friends and family members will. X factor unknown.
In Nov, they will vote, and for anybody but Blago. Those are 250K extra votes that are in the republican bag even if the candidate is Alan Keyes. Blago's fear tactics may backfire for poll considerations. The state emplyees may say they will vote for him if called, but they will not period, end of story.
EE wins plus 30% south of I 80, maybe close to 40% which will really show a chink in the armor for the gov if Madigan cuts him off and doesn't let him dole out the grants for the next 7 mo.
B Hicks
· 3 years ago
Patroit: That sensimilla is some good stuff, isn't it?
Minion
· 3 years ago
all this talk of Obama vs. Madigan is silly. Once this election is over it will all be forgotten pretty quickly. Now, if Barack were putting someone up against Lisa, that would be a problem. Besides, I think Rodogno looks really good to win. Naturally, she will have to introduce herself to voters who know next to nothing about her, but I think she will be very difficult to defeat.
Bill Baar
· 3 years ago
Rodogno makes a very good impression... No one talks about her much but she has a great story.. and very smart.
E ticket
· 3 years ago
You will see state workers come out bigger than usual because a vote for Eisendrath gives them a stealthy way to stick it to Milorad, while still appearing to be loyal dems. Look for Eisendrath to surpass otherwise low expectations in central and southern parts of the state due to this factor.
I encourage the republican state workers to come across for the primary and join the fun and vote for Edwin as well: Judy's already a lock on your side, so those guys don't need your vote, and if you fear retaliation from Blago's people, you'll look like a loyal Democrat to them on paper, and you can go back and vote for Judy in the general later, no problem. I think the state wins either way in an Eisendrath-Topinka race. If Rod lost the primary in an upset, I think the world would be a better place. If he leaves it won, but wounded, well, I'll return you Republicans the favor and vote for your gal in the general.
HOPEFUL
· 3 years ago
EDWIN EISENDRATH PRESENTS "THE HONEST CHOICE TOUR"
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT EISENDRATH2006 WEBSITE
Papa Legba
· 3 years ago
Patriot - With EE in the race, state workers can pull a democratic primary ballot. They can keep up the appearance they are "team" players and vote against Blagozo. I will bet that will happen quite a bit. If Blago gets back in, how can it be proved who the workers voted for if they voted democrat? It will spare them the wrath of Blago's Brown Shirts if and when their voting records get pulled.
Anon
· 3 years ago
Patriot, AFSCME endorsed Topinka so you can pull a GOP ballot, nothing says you have to vote for her after you go into the booth.
John 3:16
· 3 years ago
It is actually pretty amusing to read so many experts on this site predict that the Feds are going to start looking into Alexi. Maybe you all are just so focused on Springfield and the laissez-faire way our government in Illinois is regulated, you don't understand that the banking industry is the most heavily regulated industry in the United States. Feds look at Broadway Bank's -- as well as LaSalle's, Shore Bank's, etc. -- loans every day. It is telling that the great investigative reporters in Illinois (who couldn't turn up anything on Hired Trucks for 8 years) haven't reported a single violation imposed or single investigation initiated by the Feds into Broadway Bank.
Several bankers -- including apparently Norm Bobbins -- have written letters of editors to Crain's to tell them how off-base that article was.
As for Mangieri's great "field operation" -- what field operation? Just because he is listed on palm cards? You should hear what Aldermen who have been forced to endorse him say (even the day he was at City Council: the "Manchurian Candidate", "he looks like the guy from Deuce Bigalow", "he's kind of a goof, but I owe Madigan".)
Even look at his "supporters". Frank Zuccarelli declared his support for Mangieri "because he has been coming to events (i.e., kissing my rear) for over a year." Not one, NOT ONE, of the DPI mailers gives a positive reason for voting for Mangieri, and even the Trib's endorsement didn't call him qualified for the job.
Alexi is being trashed not because he is unqualified, or unethical, or young, it is because he "violated" the cardinal rule of Illinois' business as usual -- he wasn't someone that somebody "sent". They are still smarting that Obama beat their golden boy Hynes in 2004, that Claypool beat Teddy (who is seeking revenge by making his glorified clerk of a son a judge) and could now unseat Stroger, and that a private sector Democrat would dare challenge a party minion. This isn't only an attack on Alexi, it is an attack on a movement.
Emily Booth
· 3 years ago
I don't know any State employee in Chicago voting for Rod Blagoyevich. We're all Dems and we're all voting for Judy Baar.
cynically anonymous
· 3 years ago
Amen to those astute observations about state employees. And let's not overlook the thinking portion of the state's population who can see through "political puffery" and publicity stunts and feel good programs that are being talked about as if they are a done deal, when the reality is that until there's a budget for the next fiscal year, there are no programs.
babs
· 3 years ago
When the wagonloads of voters from the south side of Chicago are being handed their "sample" ballots, they will vote for Stroger and Mangieri. Obama will not count in this race, just like when he ran against Bobby Rush. And, the party machine will be turning out voters for Stroger like crazy. I wish Forrest would pull it out, but the forces against him are overwhelming.
All Comments
One word: RYAN.
Anyone can beat a Republican named Ryan in Illinois.
Overall, my point stands. People like to talk about how open-minded they are, but they will vote for a guy named "Paul" any day over a guy named "Alexi." From personal experience, I can tell you that most people can't tell a Greek name from a Saudi name, and those same people just don't like foreigners.
Rich,
Can we get a list of those radical activists? BTW - thanks for the cig.
I don't think you are giving the voters of this state much credit.
He is right Brickett being a drag on the GOP ticket.
Statewide mail, radio and ground troops will be enough to send ALexi bank to the bank to wait for the Feds to show up with quetions about all the loans to "Jaws"
Stroget tops Forest cuase they did not stay negative.
Wonder how the dream team will do with Duckworth. Kinda funny the trib did not poll there
Obama will rue the day he crossed Madigan and went with that kid.
Second, the Tribune negatives came a little late in the game - and I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest people downstate couldn't care less what the Chicago Tribune has to say - and people in the Chicago area aren't going to be swayed by two articles that the overwhelming majority won't have read or heard about.
Third, even a really good field operation - when backed only by a sporadic, sundry mail program, will have a tough time beating three weeks of TV.
Don't think Glenn Poshard 1998 - because there were three other candidates to carve up the Chicago-area vote, and it was top of the ticket.
How do you figure? Obama isn't some township committeeman or village trustee. He is -for everything that is right and wrong with this- BARACK OBAMA.
Is Tom Dart not going to be Sheriff? Are we checking the voting history of Senator Hynes?
No doubt he's powerful...but he's hardly omnipotent (though as a Republican, you can be forgiven for thinking so - because he does own your party).
"How do you figure? Obama isn’t some township committeeman or village trustee. He is -for everything that is right and wrong with this- BARACK OBAMA."
Becasue:
1. Alexi is going to look like swiss cheese after the investigative reporters are done with him. They already view him as utterly inept in handling the press, which is just the way they want it. Plus, I hear there is more there than a gun shop.
2. Madigan never forgets.
Birkett will be a big asset for the ticket. He will hammer away at Rod and force the Mighty Quinn out of his bunker and force him to defend the massive corruption of Rocket Rod. Can't wait to hear Quinn explain all those federal investigations away.
Topinka and Birkett will campaign a lot in Cook County and both have strong pockets of support in the inner suburbs.
Regardless, the polls, both the Trib and Post dispatch weigh heavily in Chicago. This skews a bit in a normal year but when the gov has nailed down state for 3 years there is an uncalculatable X factor on whether those extra downstaters will go to the polls.
For both elections you have to consider the state employee factor. There are almost 100k of them plus family and friends puts about 250+ votes which do not show on the polls. They do not poll their true voice out of fear and they won't vote in a primary because they have seen friends disappear in a Stalin like elimination of political enimies of the state. The state employees won't vote on March 21, but their friends and family members will. X factor unknown.
In Nov, they will vote, and for anybody but Blago. Those are 250K extra votes that are in the republican bag even if the candidate is Alan Keyes. Blago's fear tactics may backfire for poll considerations. The state emplyees may say they will vote for him if called, but they will not period, end of story.
EE wins plus 30% south of I 80, maybe close to 40% which will really show a chink in the armor for the gov if Madigan cuts him off and doesn't let him dole out the grants for the next 7 mo.
I encourage the republican state workers to come across for the primary and join the fun and vote for Edwin as well: Judy's already a lock on your side, so those guys don't need your vote, and if you fear retaliation from Blago's people, you'll look like a loyal Democrat to them on paper, and you can go back and vote for Judy in the general later, no problem. I think the state wins either way in an Eisendrath-Topinka race. If Rod lost the primary in an upset, I think the world would be a better place. If he leaves it won, but wounded, well, I'll return you Republicans the favor and vote for your gal in the general.
FOR DETAILS, PLEASE VISIT EISENDRATH2006 WEBSITE
Several bankers -- including apparently Norm Bobbins -- have written letters of editors to Crain's to tell them how off-base that article was.
As for Mangieri's great "field operation" -- what field operation? Just because he is listed on palm cards? You should hear what Aldermen who have been forced to endorse him say (even the day he was at City Council: the "Manchurian Candidate", "he looks like the guy from Deuce Bigalow", "he's kind of a goof, but I owe Madigan".)
Even look at his "supporters". Frank Zuccarelli declared his support for Mangieri "because he has been coming to events (i.e., kissing my rear) for over a year." Not one, NOT ONE, of the DPI mailers gives a positive reason for voting for Mangieri, and even the Trib's endorsement didn't call him qualified for the job.
Alexi is being trashed not because he is unqualified, or unethical, or young, it is because he "violated" the cardinal rule of Illinois' business as usual -- he wasn't someone that somebody "sent". They are still smarting that Obama beat their golden boy Hynes in 2004, that Claypool beat Teddy (who is seeking revenge by making his glorified clerk of a son a judge) and could now unseat Stroger, and that a private sector Democrat would dare challenge a party minion. This isn't only an attack on Alexi, it is an attack on a movement.