DISQUS

Anonymous · 10 months ago

Low turnout could benefit Fritchey and/or maybe O'Connor.
Fritchey has 36, 45, 47, and 33 with him and Mell has troops in 39 and the Latino areas.
Floating armies formerly with the Mayor are with Fritchey in 38 and 41. Most of the Western Suburbs have endorsed Fritchey and some have machine like control.

If it is low turnout it is a precinct captains election.

O'Connor has 41 (the new committeeman with the same name, 40 obviously, 39, plus Slick Degnan, Skinny Sheehan, Rod McCullogh, tons of operatives from the Mayor, the 11th ward and the 19th ward. Fritchey has more operatives from the 5th District.

Problem for Fritchey is too many candidates and guys like Forys have been quitely working his Polish base and now Capparelli is really consolidating the conservative side. But can they get the Polish or Conservative Dem voters out?

Low turnout usually favors the machine.
But the question is where is the vote coming from?
eg if it is from the East end it favors Quigley and Sarah Fiegenholtz.

Most polls show Quigley leading but that is due to name recognition and also the anti-Stroger feel. Fiegenholtz can we if she gets 40% of the female vote and 5% of the male vote. The female thing could pull it out. The question again is WHO IS COMING TO THE POLLS?

Our Time Has Passed · 10 months ago

I was the 11th voter in my precinct at 7:15 am in th 45th Ward.

Anon · 10 months ago

I was passing palm cards for Fritchey outside a double precinct in Roscoe Village (32nd ward) between 6 and 7. A brief flurry of about 10 voters right at 6:00, and then nobody for the next 30 minutes. Then a trickle started, one every few minutes.

NO workers or signs for any other candidate - I was pretty surprised. I heard that this was the case elsewhere. And this was in the eastern part of the district.

Critical Dune · 10 months ago

#3 voter at 6:15 am in my eastern precinct. Only one hapless Fritchey worker posting (likely illegal) signs outside the polling place. Poll workers outnumbered voters. Think my precinct is either for Quigley (my choice) or Feigenholz.

R.P. McMurphy · 10 months ago

I was number 4 in my polling place at 7:00. Only an O'Connor person outside. Interesting use of his resources, as the polling place is about three blocks from Sara's condo on one side, and three blocks from Quigley's house on the other.

Honest Abe · 10 months ago

Annunzio!

AP Anon · 10 months ago

I was the 5th voter in my precinct in the 33rd Ward...and surprisingly, they tried to make me show my ID in order to vote. They claimed that voters have always had to show IDs, even though I know I didn't in November.

BandarBush · 10 months ago

I'm an attorney and poll watcher for Fritchey. I'm at Racine and Fullerton. 2.5 hours in and we have 19 ballots cast. I've seen more dogs than voters. If this keeps up, Sara is toast.

R.P. McMurphy · 10 months ago

East-enders rarely vote early.

Bill · 10 months ago

East-enders rarely vote.

R.P. McMurphy · 10 months ago

Too true, but even when they do, it's a rush at the end of the day.

Oakparker · 10 months ago

Fritchey and O'Connor seem to have the ground troops. I presume that Feigenholz (and maybe Quigley) is/are relying on phone banks which won't kick in until the late morning and afternoon. It'll be interesting to see if/when the voters start coming in.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

I have been to 6 Northwest side polling places. TO is light but steady. Lots of women voting and old.

Fritchey supporter · 10 months ago

Dear Fritchey volunteers:

Less posting to CapFax, more palmcards and door knocking.

Love,

Fritchey supporters who can't be out working this morning

Been There · 10 months ago

I was suppose to be passing lit at a poll in River Grove for Fritchey. Except there was no one to pass it to. No other candidates signs except for his. After an hour, at 7:00, ZERO voters. At 7:05 the first voter came in. But he didn't really count because he was the local area Fritchey guy who I am helping out. Then at 7:30ish the second voter came in. No one else when I told the guy I was helping that I was heading to the office to get some work done so I could come back later to help him drag voters out of their houses. This Leyden township area is for Fritchey but unless someone, anyone, shows up its not going to help.

From what I hear the Polish guy has some real traction. Even some of the regular captains that are Polish in the Chicago Wards have snuck over.

This low turnout is making me re-think we need a special election for Burris.

John M · 10 months ago

My wife and I were votes 5&6 at 7:15 this morning. There wasn't a soul outside of our polling place (on Addison near Leavitt).

Laborguy · 10 months ago

We all knew TO would be light. Let's not rush to judgement on this. Remember,only 100 votes per preinct is TO of 60,000. We know it won't be that high, so we will see. If by midday we have 30 votes per precinct that is just fine for Sara.

Ravenswood Right Winger · 10 months ago

I was #3 in the GOP Primary at my polling place in the 47th Ward. No one handing stuff out at my polling place, just a bunch of signs.

Bill · 10 months ago

==If by midday we have 30 votes per precinct that is just fine for Sara.==

LOL

Ravenswood · 10 months ago

No other voters in my precinct at 8:30 (Irving Park Rd. & Ashland)

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bill, DO you know anything about elections? Anything at all? Anything that might indicate you have a clue? Is anyone home up there?

Bill · 10 months ago

A runoff???Bite your tongue Oddsie!

Bill · 10 months ago

We'll see who has a clue, Jerry. You better start sprucing up the ol' resume.

Phil K. · 10 months ago

I voted in the 44th (Southport and Addison) this morning at 7:45, prime before-work voting time. There was one other voter in the gym.

Windy Cityzen · 10 months ago

===No one will get 50% anyway, so we’ll have run-off, most likely, Itchy Fritchey and Sara===

No one needs 50% of the vote. If one person gets 9% and everyone else gets less, that person wins the primary...

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

That comment was deleted for a reason.

surprised · 10 months ago

Hey, Bill and Laborguy, what if a freakish victory/concession party leads to the creation of a mutant Fritchenholtzley who is awarded the nomination? Will you guys be friends then?

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

I think we have more comments than actual votes. lol

ANON · 10 months ago

Double precinct in 32nd Ward. At 8:30 this morning, one had 20 votes and the other 16 votes. Pretty light.

Pat collins · 10 months ago

Was there early voting for this election?

That is becoming a higher percentage of the vote each time.

dave · 10 months ago

Yes... there was early voting for this election.

ChicagoGreen · 10 months ago

Ran around to 15 or 20 precincts this morning with Matt Reichel Green Party credentials for poll watching. Saw at most one or two voters per precinct. This was between 6 and 7:30. Just love that poll workers still point to the green colored Democratic ballots when I ask where the Green Party ballots are. Who doesn't love the smell of democracy in the morning?

kj · 10 months ago

this is great news for JOHN MCCAIN

SE Lakeview · 10 months ago

I voted at 8:00 in Southeast Lakeview. I was the 12th voter in the precinct. This is very low turnout. I don't remember ever seeing it this low. This area should be strong for Fiegenholz and Quigley, so this is not good sign for them.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

SE Lakeview, did you see any workers at that precinct polling place or elsewhere in your precinct?

soccermom · 10 months ago

anybody got final numbers on the early voting count?

Obamarama · 10 months ago

Out of the 48,000 suburban voters in the 5th CD, roughly 300 voted. I'm not sure about the City though. I think it was something like 3,400

Obamarama · 10 months ago

4090 early votes in Chicago.

Northshore Blue Dog · 10 months ago

Knowing both the campaign managers for Sara and Quigley, a previous poster is absolutly correct in that they will depend heavely on phone banks that will not kick in until 10am. Quigley's manager has first hand experience with Special Election's but my money is on John F. and his ground game. These multi-candidate races are usually won on the ground and John has the troops to push his GOTV effort over the top.

But, its still anyone's game. Should be interesting to hear the spin after the ballots are cast. I wish I still lived in the District just to be part of the fun.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bill, my resume is plenty spruced. I turn down job offers all the time. I don't think I'm getting fired if Sara loses, Sparky. Gook luck today. I'm going to run some votes.

Paul Richardson · 10 months ago

I'm in SE Lakeview as well. I got in about 8:30AM, and was voter number 9. Two Feigenholtz yard signs at the 150 yard from the door mark, but not a single breathing worker from any campaign.

High hopes · 10 months ago

If it could possibly be lighter than expected, it seems that way. Going out to work the ground game in a bit.

This is anyones game.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Guys, why don't you all stop looking for workers. If you see a worker at the polling place today they aren't doing their job. What is the point of passing a palmcard in a special election? Do you think people are coming out to vote not knowing who they are going to vote for? There is only one race on the ballot. Running votes is the name if the game today and that will start later, as will the phones. This will be a late vote. No reason for people to get out early to vote. They knew they wouldn't have to wait in line. They will get to it after work. Mark my words. And Bill, do something constructive.

Sucker in Daleyland · 10 months ago

There are campaign workers, probably from Fritchey (they were standing next to fresh Fritchey signs), on Damen near Roscoe.

Anonymous ZZZ · 10 months ago

Overslept this morning so didn't get a chance to vote before work. Definitely voting after work, though (44th ward, precinct 36). If I see anything interesting, I'll let y'all know.

SE Lakeview · 10 months ago

I didn't see any campaign workers at my voting place which included 2 precincts. I didn't see any yard or window signs over the past week that I can remember. I did receive fliers in the mail for Quigley, Feigenholz, O'Connor, and Fritchey.

ZC · 10 months ago

18 votes in my 40th ward precinct as of 7:30 a.m. No poll workers, but an O'Connor sign outside the polling place and somebody had taped instructions on my apartment door with directions and encouragement to vote O'Connor.

orb · 10 months ago

My wife and I were voters 8 and 9 in 47th Ward, 42nd P. at 8:30 am. Normally, Welles Park is blanketed with signs. This time, a couple Fritchey signs. But the 47th Ward guy was diligently marking his poll sheet. (No palm carders, which is very odd. There are usually 3 or 4.)

Even though, after voting in every election for 7 years as a Democrat, they've never knocked on my door.

60657 · 10 months ago

I voted in the 44th Ward/44th Precinct (Belmont and LSD) around 8:45 this morning. I was the 27th voter, which was surprising because there were 3 other people in there with me. Can't imagine that the low vote counts in practically the epicenter of lakefront liberals are good for Feigenholtz. Nor is the fact that at least one of those 27 was a Fritchey vote. =)

As for workers, I saw a Feigenholtz guy putting up signs at the Bal Harbour building (420 W. Belmont -- not a polling location, but close to 2 or 3 others), and a Fritchey guy passing out info cards outside the Belmont L station. Must be trying to get people to vote later tonight -- at 9am, everyone there is heading downtown.

jbstyle · 10 months ago

I voted at 9:00 in my 43rd ward precinct -- was number 35. Didn't see any campaign workers.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Based on early reports, TO should be in the 42,000 to 46,000 range. Fritchey needs TO to be 32,000 or lower to win. Looks like it is Quigley or Sara.

Bill · 10 months ago

Haven't seen any purple people eaters at all today. Oh, that's right. They don't work the polling places. They are all on the phones...all 3 of them. Its easier that way plus they don't really care who wins. The vaunted army of "volunteers" is a figment of some wild imaginations.

Peanut gallery · 10 months ago

To all of you wondering about the lack of poll workers and signs and palm cards - it's the only race on the ballot folks. The workers are knocking doors and calling IDs. If someone is walking into a polling place, he or she already knows who they're voting for. It's a waste of resources to put people at the polls.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

=== If someone is walking into a polling place, he or she already knows who they’re voting for===

A very dangerous assumption. There are a lot of folks who consider it their patriotic duty to vote, but not to learn much about the candidates.

Mr. Know-it-All · 10 months ago

Laborguy is spot-on regarding poll workers today - as many commenters have reported, there's too few voters to make it worthwhile to pass palm cards outside, and besides, nobody's showing up today without already knowing who they're voting for.

At western end of 44th ward, my wife was #6 at 7 am. A friend in 32nd ward (Belmont/Leavitt) was #4 at 6:40 am.

Bill · 10 months ago

Forget it, Rich. You are talking to experts here. A ground game is not important because they don't have one. I'll take the precinct captains at the polling places any day over some bussed in phone volunteers reading to voice mails all day.

dave · 10 months ago

I wouldn't say that a ground game is handing out lit at the polls in a one-race election.

A ground game is making sure your id'd voters show up at the polls.

Scott Summers · 10 months ago

Windy Cityzen writes: "If one person gets 9% and everyone else gets less, that person wins the primary."

Sad, but true.

Which is why, someday over the rainbow, we should move to IRV -- Instant Runoff Voting.

In a nutshell: "IRV is a voting system for single-winner elections that guarantees majority winners in a single round of voting. IRV allows voters to vote their hopes instead of their fears by ranking candidates in order of preference without worrying about spoiler dynamics or wasted votes." -- www.InstantRunoff.com

So -- who else but goo-goos support IRV?

Well, during the 92nd session of the General Assembly, we had Senate Bill 1789. Didn't go anywhere. http://www.fairvote.org/?page=2188

The sponsors, you ask? Oh, a couple of obscure back-bench guys. John Cullerton. Barack Obama.

SE Lakeview · 10 months ago

I must admit I had a really hard time voting on this race. I was turned off by Feigenholz negative ads and the fact I view her as mediocre. I don't like Quigley's association with Bernie Hanson and his slam related to CTA sales tax hike. I don't trust Fritchey because of the Banks connections and I don't know much about him. I can't think of anything O'Connor has ever accomplished. I didn't think Goeghgan would be effective. I ended up voting for Forys, because I think having someone with a health care background will be important in light of all the pending health care reform and because he is Polish and represents an underrepresented group. I wasn't excited about my vote and have apprehension that I don't know enough about him, but from what I know he won't be any worse than the rest.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bill, I am an expert. No professional campaigner would have people at a polling place today. I don't have the time to explain it to you but you wouldn't understand anyway. How many campaigns have you run Bill? I would love to hear about your extensive campaign experience. Get a clue, buddy. And Rich, you are wrong yet again.

Mr. Know-it-All · 10 months ago

==There are a lot of folks who consider it their patriotic duty to vote, but not to learn much about the candidates==

Rich, I agree...but I suspect that this is less of an impact in a special election with only one race and on a day on which people aren't accustomed to voting.

To the extent this phenomenon does occur, who do you think it favors? I'd say it favors O'Connor in his ward and nearby wards, Monteguado in the Latino precincts, Forys in the Polish areas, and Sara generally with women. I don't know that pollworkers will sway many of these less-informed patriots, do you?

George · 10 months ago

And its Forys by a nose!

Northshore Blue Dog · 10 months ago

I just got off the phone with a Union friend of mine who is doing field work for Fritchey on the City's NW side and she said that turnout is non-exisistent and she is the only one there in 3 precincts working for a candidate. Noted that the only poll dressings were that of Fritchey.

Well, I guess there is the lunch hour rush and after work crowds.

42nd Voter · 10 months ago

I voted in the 42nd at 9:10, was #46. Signs all up Western next to Welles park - mostly Fritchey - and 2 Fritchey and one Wheelan sign stuck in the planter next to the American Legion. I can't imagine a more boring day for the election judges...

Peanut gallery · 10 months ago

Rich, point taken. A few folks might patriotically meander in and vote for the palm card, absolutely. But, I think the real focus has to be GOTV today.

ConservativeVeteran · 10 months ago

Windy Cityzen and Scott Summers are close. With 13 democrat candidates, someone could win the primary with 8%. 100 divided by 13 = 7.69. Six Republicans are running, so one of them can win the primary with 17%. The republican nominee will be Rosanna Pulido, with 25%-30%. She'll win the general election. Many of the district's voters think that their last two congressmen, Emanuel and Blaogjevich, were corrupt and liberal. To show that they support a big change, the voters will elect the conservative. In 1994, few people thought that a Republican could win, but Rostinkowski, an 18-term incumbent lost.

jerry 101 · 10 months ago

i have a funny feeling that fritchey, feigenholtz, and quigley are going to destruct each other, with geoghegan peeling off the most liberal votes.

The goofy looking polish doctor wins.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Point Taken Rich, but you are still wrong. TO, with the 4,000 early votes looks to be about 42,000. Very hard to believe that favors Fritchey. I could be wrong. These specials are vebry hard to gauge. Dick Mell says it is between Fritchey and Quigley. He doesn't see anything for Sara. Of course Mell is on quite a losing streak. Lost to SEIU in the aldermanics and the state senate race recently. I think the Old Gringo has lost his touch.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

WE have seen lines at several polling places in 38 and 45. Not sure who it favors. Maybe it is a Forys vote. Can't really tell. Lots of little old ladies though. Maybe Sara.

State Sen. Clay Davis · 10 months ago

GOTV is great, but how many solid pluses do any of them even have at this point? If any of them have more than 1,000 I'd be surprised. Crapshoot!

Bill · 10 months ago

Well, Jerry, Ive won a lot more than you and we're gonna get this one today. Politics is more than a lot of money and a big mouth. Your childish attempt at dirty tricks, your constant bragging about yourself instead of your candidate, your feeble attempt at bullying, your stupid threats, and your general demeanor show that you are just another wannabe amateur even though you found someone dumb enough to pay you. If you keep on lying maybe someone will believe you.
Good Luck today.

Anonymous ZZZ · 10 months ago

ConservativeVeteran - that kind of delusional thinking is one reason Republicans have been faring badly the last few election cycles. They don't have a grip on reality. The 5th congressional district would never elect a Republican in a general election.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bill, I asked for specific races you have RUN.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bullying and dirty tricks? Have you got any examples of this? Trash talking maybe.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Actually, I found hundreds of people dumb enough to pay me over the years. How about you Bill?

Pete Giangreco · 10 months ago

anyone else have turnout numbers? I was in 5 pcts in 47 and turnout was higher than 44 and 43 by about 150%.

60657 · 10 months ago

"The republican nominee will be Rosanna Pulido . . . She’ll win the general election."

lolololololololololol

Charlie Cook rates the 5th as D +18. Good luck winning there with the most knee-jerk reactionary Republican of them all.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bill, if you are such a pro tell me which races you have run over the years. Let's compare records or at least client lists. How many federal races have you run? I will post my candidate list for the last 15 years. Why don't you do the same? Good luck to you too Bill.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Hey Pete, who is this Bill guy? He says he feels bullied by me. Is he one of yours?

Concerned Observer · 10 months ago

Having read enough of these threads on CapFax over the last few days, I must say that -- as someone who doesn't live in the district -- I can not WAIT for the damned polls to close, so some of the childish back-and-forth among all parties will end.

Pete Giangreco · 10 months ago

Mine are all out pounding doors or are on the phones. Bill is for your friend Fritchey.

I think turnout is headed to about 46,000 but I need to see more turnout counts to really see.

Headed back out...

ElectMike · 10 months ago

Mary O'Connor is non-existent in 41. Capparelli will win his base. The name is still popular up here.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Hey John, I'll let Tom know you think he is dumb. You had better win today buddy.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

If Pete is right, and he often is, that kind of turnout precludes a Fritchey victory. This is between Sara and Mike. Probably favors Sara though.

To Laborguy · 10 months ago

As I'm not too familiar with number of precincts and wards that are in the 5th, can you explain to readers (at least me) how you come up with your projected total vote?

Lou Grant · 10 months ago

Bill and LG, especially LG, can you take your purse swinging somewhere other than here?

One palm passer for Fritchey in W47, 16 P, which shares a voting place with another precinct. At 10 AM less than 35 voters. No one at the Amvets hall, across Western, no one at Welles Park. Some Fritchey and Whellan signs on Western.

As far as IDing voters, I was greeted by the Democratic poll watcher with a "YOU live in my area?" Yep, for almost 20 years at the same address. And a relatively reliable voter too for about 10. Maybe they should walk around a bit more?

Note: I've never seen a GOP poll watcher, though I've seen Green poll watchers.

ElectMike · 10 months ago

Bet you Banks and De Leo wishes they didn't screw Capparelli Sr. now. Mary O'Connor is now pulling same same back stab deal on them. How ironic.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Typically, there are about 600 to 700 precincts per congressional district in Illinois. Perhaps someone has the actual number here and can tell us precisely. One hundred votes per precinct would get you to 60,000 or 70,000 votes cast. In a typical primary you would be looking at 25% to 30% turnout. Special elections are much lower than that. There are currently 300,000 registered voters in the 5th CD. You fold in your polling data and plus counts and can usually make a pretty guess at the turnout. It is much more difficult in a special election though. Many years ago when Jesse Jack Jr. won his special election for his South Side congressional district turnout was right at 100,000 votes. Early voting is another indication. With 4,000 early votes, typically in the 7% to 10% range of total votes cast, you can further enhance your turnout projections. If Turnout is at or near 50 votes by midday today you are probably looking at final countst of 70 to 80 votes per precinct which will get you to about 46,000 turnout. Most professionals would ackowledge that higer turnout favors the candidate that has dominated communications and that would be Sara. Lower turonout favors Quigley and very low turnout favors Fritchey.

Polyethelene · 10 months ago

Fritchey ftw!

Scooby · 10 months ago

How do you even apply a spindle count theory in a special? If you don't even know who's coming out, how do you know when they vote or how to interpret how many people have voted by 10, 12 and 5?

Anonymous · 10 months ago

Mary O'connor was never with them you dope. Know what you're talking about before posting.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Hey John, I mean Bill, want to know how many volunteers SEIU just sent out for Sara in Allen's ward? We just finished sending off 115 walkers. Many Polish and Spanish speakers. None of them paid or doing member to member like your folks. Good luck boys.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Hey Scooby, you want to know how to apply a spindle count to a special election. It is easy. The best indication of future bwehavior is past behavior. There may be fewer voters today but general voting patterns should remain consistent. If they aren't then we have learned something. You have to work off of some kind of projection. How would you do it? You have something more scientific?

ElectMike · 10 months ago

Dope? Obviously you have no idea. Follow the money. She got support and alittle money out of 36 for her and her army of 5 drunk dummies. Otherwise she's have nothing.

George · 10 months ago

I think some precinct workers may have gotten a little confused by the special election process. Don't know if they have all the ballots set up right.

I was voter #32 in my precinct today. Thought it was strange, but I proudly pulled the lever for Rostenkowski.

anonymous · 10 months ago

hey labor guy... how did they all get there... maybe via trademark seiu transport. Btw.. isn't it your trademark to pay workers...

babs · 10 months ago

The early voters in 41 look alot more like Forys voters than Capparelli or Fritchey - at least one out of three. I wouldn't be counting on women voters on the northwest side to be looking for women candidates, that's not where these women are coming from. There's far too much "east of Ashland" thinking going on around here. 41 may be where O'Connor picks up votes outside of his own. Who gets the least # of votes on Dem side? I'm gonna say Annunzio.