CapitolFax.com - Latest Comments in Early 5th District thread

Re: Early 5th District thread

babs — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:14:21 -0000

The early voters in 41 look alot more like Forys voters than Capparelli or Fritchey - at least one out of three. I wouldn't be counting on women voters on the northwest side to be looking for women candidates, that's not where these women are coming from. There's far too much "east of Ashland" thinking going on around here. 41 may be where O'Connor picks up votes outside of his own. Who gets the least # of votes on Dem side? I'm gonna say Annunzio.

Re: Early 5th District thread

anonymous — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:12:22 -0000

hey labor guy... how did they all get there... maybe via trademark seiu transport. Btw.. isn't it your trademark to pay workers...

Re: Early 5th District thread

George — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:11:54 -0000

I think some precinct workers may have gotten a little confused by the special election process. Don't know if they have all the ballots set up right.

I was voter #32 in my precinct today. Thought it was strange, but I proudly pulled the lever for Rostenkowski.

Re: Early 5th District thread

ElectMike — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:10:10 -0000

Dope? Obviously you have no idea. Follow the money. She got support and alittle money out of 36 for her and her army of 5 drunk dummies. Otherwise she's have nothing.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:06:32 -0000

Hey Scooby, you want to know how to apply a spindle count to a special election. It is easy. The best indication of future bwehavior is past behavior. There may be fewer voters today but general voting patterns should remain consistent. If they aren't then we have learned something. You have to work off of some kind of projection. How would you do it? You have something more scientific?

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:03:23 -0000

Hey John, I mean Bill, want to know how many volunteers SEIU just sent out for Sara in Allen's ward? We just finished sending off 115 walkers. Many Polish and Spanish speakers. None of them paid or doing member to member like your folks. Good luck boys.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Anonymous — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 13:01:41 -0000

Mary O'connor was never with them you dope. Know what you're talking about before posting.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Scooby — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:55:49 -0000

How do you even apply a spindle count theory in a special? If you don't even know who's coming out, how do you know when they vote or how to interpret how many people have voted by 10, 12 and 5?

Re: Early 5th District thread

Polyethelene — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:51:11 -0000

Fritchey ftw!

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:46:43 -0000

Typically, there are about 600 to 700 precincts per congressional district in Illinois. Perhaps someone has the actual number here and can tell us precisely. One hundred votes per precinct would get you to 60,000 or 70,000 votes cast. In a typical primary you would be looking at 25% to 30% turnout. Special elections are much lower than that. There are currently 300,000 registered voters in the 5th CD. You fold in your polling data and plus counts and can usually make a pretty guess at the turnout. It is much more difficult in a special election though. Many years ago when Jesse Jack Jr. won his special election for his South Side congressional district turnout was right at 100,000 votes. Early voting is another indication. With 4,000 early votes, typically in the 7% to 10% range of total votes cast, you can further enhance your turnout projections. If Turnout is at or near 50 votes by midday today you are probably looking at final countst of 70 to 80 votes per precinct which will get you to about 46,000 turnout. Most professionals would ackowledge that higer turnout favors the candidate that has dominated communications and that would be Sara. Lower turonout favors Quigley and very low turnout favors Fritchey.

Re: Early 5th District thread

ElectMike — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:35:15 -0000

Bet you Banks and De Leo wishes they didn't screw Capparelli Sr. now. Mary O'Connor is now pulling same same back stab deal on them. How ironic.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Lou Grant — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:31:47 -0000

Bill and LG, especially LG, can you take your purse swinging somewhere other than here?

One palm passer for Fritchey in W47, 16 P, which shares a voting place with another precinct. At 10 AM less than 35 voters. No one at the Amvets hall, across Western, no one at Welles Park. Some Fritchey and Whellan signs on Western.

As far as IDing voters, I was greeted by the Democratic poll watcher with a "YOU live in my area?" Yep, for almost 20 years at the same address. And a relatively reliable voter too for about 10. Maybe they should walk around a bit more?

Note: I've never seen a GOP poll watcher, though I've seen Green poll watchers.

Re: Early 5th District thread

To Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:24:28 -0000

As I'm not too familiar with number of precincts and wards that are in the 5th, can you explain to readers (at least me) how you come up with your projected total vote?

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:19:16 -0000

If Pete is right, and he often is, that kind of turnout precludes a Fritchey victory. This is between Sara and Mike. Probably favors Sara though.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:16:55 -0000

Hey John, I'll let Tom know you think he is dumb. You had better win today buddy.

Re: Early 5th District thread

ElectMike — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:08:34 -0000

Mary O'Connor is non-existent in 41. Capparelli will win his base. The name is still popular up here.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Pete Giangreco — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:08:06 -0000

Mine are all out pounding doors or are on the phones. Bill is for your friend Fritchey.

I think turnout is headed to about 46,000 but I need to see more turnout counts to really see.

Headed back out...

Re: Early 5th District thread

Concerned Observer — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:06:48 -0000

Having read enough of these threads on CapFax over the last few days, I must say that -- as someone who doesn't live in the district -- I can not WAIT for the damned polls to close, so some of the childish back-and-forth among all parties will end.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:02:25 -0000

Hey Pete, who is this Bill guy? He says he feels bullied by me. Is he one of yours?

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 12:00:50 -0000

Bill, if you are such a pro tell me which races you have run over the years. Let's compare records or at least client lists. How many federal races have you run? I will post my candidate list for the last 15 years. Why don't you do the same? Good luck to you too Bill.

Re: Early 5th District thread

60657 — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:59:01 -0000

"The republican nominee will be Rosanna Pulido . . . Sheâ€™ll win the general election."

lolololololololololol

Charlie Cook rates the 5th as D +18. Good luck winning there with the most knee-jerk reactionary Republican of them all.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Pete Giangreco — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:58:55 -0000

anyone else have turnout numbers? I was in 5 pcts in 47 and turnout was higher than 44 and 43 by about 150%.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:58:27 -0000

Actually, I found hundreds of people dumb enough to pay me over the years. How about you Bill?

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:57:11 -0000

Bullying and dirty tricks? Have you got any examples of this? Trash talking maybe.

Re: Early 5th District thread

Laborguy — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:55:52 -0000

Bill, I asked for specific races you have RUN.