DISQUS

GOTV · 10 months ago

I love the smell of a fresh thread on election day.

Speaking of disasters, hey Laborguy - Fritchey and Quigley could really use you out there knocking doors for your gal Sara. All that crazy being spewed on her ID'd doorsteps will be excellent voter suppression. Go get em!

Scooby · 10 months ago

=== Hey Scooby, you want to know how to apply a spindle count to a special election. It is easy. The best indication of future bwehavior is past behavior. There may be fewer voters today but general voting patterns should remain consistent. If they aren’t then we have learned something. You have to work off of some kind of projection. How would you do it? You have something more scientific? ===

I don't, that's why I was asking.

Pat collins · 10 months ago

Melrose Park Mayor Ron Serpico has flipped and is now with Rep. Sara Feigehnoltz

Kind of late for that, isn't it? I mean, the time to have gone was when it could have done her some good.

Now he gets little credit, and PO's off anyone else who might win.

Lakeview conservative · 10 months ago

Just voted in the 45th of 44th and I was number 27. I saw 2 young Quigley workers walking the precinct. Signs for Feigenhnotz and Oconner at polling place which was crawling with poll watchers precinct workers. If I get one more robo call about Feigenhnotz I will scream. EVen if I were inclined to vote for her (which I am not because I know what a do nothing pol she is) I would vote for someone else because of the annoying daily calls I get on her behalf .

OneMan · 10 months ago

Kind of curious if the calls are starting to tick people off, they did sure seem to at the end in the 14th...?

Alex · 10 months ago

Just voted 2 minutes ago in my 47th ward precinct, only about 7% turnout so far.

Scott R · 10 months ago

I also voted this morning and was surprised by how many Quigley people were out and about. He got my vote because of his efforts to stop higher taxes in Cook County.

babs · 10 months ago

Rich, not sure what you mean exactly by "changing a voting structure"? Forys is getting machine voters (Regular Democrats) who always come out and vote - they voted for Rosty and Puchinski and Banks, Allen, etc. but now have one of their own, again, to vote for. If you're out on the northwest side, it's hard not to see this. I don't know if he did any ID and/or has any GOTV effort. If he does, he can win this and if he doesn't, he's just taking away votes from Fritchey & O'Connor.

wordslinger · 10 months ago

--Melrose Park Mayor Ron Serpico has flipped...--

Madon! Rich, that's not a verb they like to use in Melrose -- people could get the wrong idea. I'm sure Mayor Serpico would say he changed his support to....

Thomas Westgard · 10 months ago

I have a view on one precinct, which is headed for 65 votes, maybe 70 tops. Very low turnout for this relatively high-turnout precinct.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

wordslinger, good point, but I think I'll let it stand as is. lol

VOL for Sara · 10 months ago

I wish I could be out there, but real job calls.

While making phone calls, the response was overall extremely positive at their targeted voters. Yes, there were a few that have become annoyed.

Anyone heading to Sara's election party? See you there!

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

When voters get annoyed at contact levels, you know the contact levels are just about right.

Scott R · 10 months ago

Quigley will win. The Endorsements from the Trib and Sun Times mean a lot in a low Turnout Election.

Quigley's anti tax stance worked well with the Moderate voters here in Lincoln Park.

Anonymous · 10 months ago

Serpico didn't flip, he never committed anywhere else and was expected to go with Sara for the last couple weeks.

VOL for Sara · 10 months ago

Very true! Annoyed = a lot of contacts! I do not know however how many "+" were identified throughout the campaign. I would ask my friends on the campaign, but right now is not the best time! :-)

Laborguy · 10 months ago

You guys want to know why Serpico "flipped"? We have been getting numbers back from the suburbs for two weeks showing Sara winning. He knew where things were going and wanted to be on the right side.

Prairie Sage · 10 months ago

Where are the election night events? I wanna go drown sorrows with the 8 friends who can't win, given the lunatic # of candidates in this thing.

anon from chicago · 10 months ago

If Al Ronen is behind Sara it was a very good bet Serpico was in lock step. Not that I am always on the same page as our own lobbyist when it comes to campaigns but I think Al's relationships and clients such as Melrose have a different kind of bond.

Anon · 10 months ago

I voted at noon at my 32nd ward precinct. I was the 45th. No poll workers there. O'Connor and Fritchey signs present, but plenty of Forys signs. Looks like Rosty's old organization is out for Dr. Forys.

lincoln street · 10 months ago

In a turnout of 35,000, you don't have to change the structure of a voting population. You just turn out the normal number of voters from your target demographic, or even half the normal number, and watch the other demographics wilt and die.

Forys needs 7,000 votes, and I think he starts with 1,000 early votes; 600 mail-in absentees. I'm not predicting he gets to 7,000, but I think it's within the realm of possibility. I don't think Fritchey or O'Connor can stay with him. If I knew a bookie, I'd have my money on Quigley, Forys and Feigenholtz in that order, with the others also-rans. I think 8,000 votes wins it, and I think that's Quigley. The newspapers should encourage more candidates in every contest -- the 12% they can actually give someone is a big deal in a split race like this.

VOL for Sara · 10 months ago

Prairie Sage - Sara's is at The Metro on Clark, just North of Wrigley!

Bunch of women, LGBT supporters, SEIU, and progressives!

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Here is an important note for all to remember. The spindle count everyone is referring to is not the final count. There are 4,000 early votes and 3,000 absintee ballots that will be added toi the total at the end of the night. The judges don't know how many there are becasue they are sealed. That is 7,000 additional votes on top of the final spindle count. So, add 10 to 15 votes to the final spindle count in every precinct and you get the count. If only 60 people are counted on the spindle at the end of the night that means 70 or 75 votes. A significant difference.

To Laborguy · 10 months ago

Just a thought Laborguy, the spindle count counts ALL VOTERS not just Democratic, correct?

Scott R · 10 months ago

VOL, Why did the Progressive Paper, the Sun Times, endorse Quigley? Because Sara did not nothing in Springfield but collect a Paycheck.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

Just remember, people, this thing is over today. Go overboard in comments today and you could be ridiculed tomorrow.

Everybody, try to calm down a bit.

Amy · 10 months ago

friends report the Sara doorhangers are going out as reminders to vote. they feature a pix of her with Obama. they also list endorsers, Hynes, Shiller, Mendoza, Hamos, orgs, unions. that Shiller thing might not work so well everywhere.

ConservativeVeteran · 10 months ago

Scott, you said that the Sun-Times is progressive, but I disagree. The definition of "progressive" is determined by each person's opinion, depending upon each person's definition of "progress." I think that conservative ideas cause progress and that liberal ideas would be harmful.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Spindle count counts all votes, correct.

Scott R · 10 months ago

Veteran, as Compared to the Tribune would be better said.

Moderate voters are the swing in this crowded Special Election, and they have had enough of high taxes in Cook County and the City.

Sara is a tax and spend liberal, while Quigley is a low tax liberal.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

The republican/green ballots will probably eat up about half of the 7,000 additional votes we talked about earlier. Good pick-up. I always forget about those guys. I am just guessing at this stuff btw.

Ghost · 10 months ago

I suggest "as the spindle turns" for your lede.

lincoln street · 10 months ago

Laborguy,

The GOP and Green ballots were only eating up about 1/20th of the early votes.

Stuck with Sen. CPA · 10 months ago

The Sun-Times is now the 'progressive' paper in town? Puh-lease.

Phil Huckelberry · 10 months ago

The word I heard yesterday was that some campaign workers in the 47th were not only being told by voters that they were undecided (as opposed to leaning toward the workers' preferred candidate), but even that they were undecided as to whether they could be counted on to pull a Democratic ballot. That could mean a lot of different things, of course.

I've heard nothing from the field today. I expected a new wave of voter disenfranchisement but maybe the city has that under better control this time. Stranger things have happened.

Belden Ave. · 10 months ago

T-minus 4 hours 45 mins until the "liberal-progressive-reformers" go back into their hole!Amen...

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

lol

lincoln street · 10 months ago

Belden Ave.,

I'd stake my address against yours that you're wrong.

- Lincoln St.
(not Lincoln Ave.)

GOTV · 10 months ago

Good call, Belden. I'm heading north now to skate back to my precinct on that frozen river of merlot.

Five Thousand West · 10 months ago

Fourth voter at 620 this morning in my 38 ward precinct. Out on the doors in 45 all day. The only campaigns dropping lit are Forys and Bryar. Good support for Fritchey on the doors.

Still have absolutely no inkling which way this is gonna go. Neither does anybody else. Good luck to all Democrats. Except Quigley.

Honest Abe · 10 months ago

Maybe the district will soon have an actual resident as its US Representative: Rod Blagojevich chose to live in Logan Square for most of his tenure in Congress (in the 4th Congressional District) and Northshore Rahm "The Life Long Chicago Resident" managed to spend most of his life in New Trier Township before moving into grad Blago's open seat in 2002 as Rod's candidate.

Amy · 10 months ago

hope someone has the definitive list of which electeds supported which candidates cause the list of winners and losers is going to be real interesting in the post election thread!

Laborguy · 10 months ago

After looking at afternoon reports I am revising my turnout project up to the 47,000 to 50,000 range. I have got to believe that is good for Sara, but no way of knowing for sure. NW Side wards are performing decent. The Lakefront should pick-up soon. Fritchey guys at every polling place passing literature. A complete waste of time.

The Doc · 10 months ago

My 32nd ward precinct had 70 total votes (according to the voting machine) as of 2:15 this afternoon. The area around the polling place had at least a half-dozen Fritchey campaign signs, and no others.

Modern Math · 10 months ago

Laborguy,

50,000 votes? Not a chance.

In one of the historically most active precincts in the 47th Ward, turnout is barely touching 10%.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Modern Math, You are citing turnout at one of nearly 600 precincts. I am seeing moderate turnout at a majority of precincts. Remember, there had been over 10,000 ballots cast before the doors opened this morning. I agree, 50,000 is at the high end but 46,000, 47,000 or even 48,000 is very doable at this point. It all hinges on the late vote in the eastern end of the district.

ac · 10 months ago

Do you think today's results are a good predictor of the political importance (or lack thereof) of the regular democratic organizations (ward orgs / "the machine")? If State Rep Fritchey looses and from what I understand he has the vast majority of organizational support-- doesn't that imply that none of the ward orgs were successful in dragging out their pluses? Conversely, if he wins - the ground game has to get a ton of credit, because nobody (besides russ stewart) is talking about him pulling this off.

Northshore Blue Dog · 10 months ago

I think this is funny that the turn out is so low. The 2008 Special General Election in IL 14th took in over 98,000 votes. Granted, it was not a Special General Primary Election, but it was, like this election, not on a normal Election Day.

HLV · 10 months ago

32nd Ward precinct. Only had Bedell and Fritchey workers this morning. About 10 voters by 9:30 am.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

===he has the vast majority of organizational support===

Somewhat less than half.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

===Remember, there had been over 10,000 ballots cast before the doors opened this morning===

Huh?

OneMan · 10 months ago

== Just remember, people, this thing is over today. Go overboard in comments today and you could be ridiculed tomorrow. ==

Or stop getting invites to your opponent's Porky Picnic

OneMan · 10 months ago

== ===Remember, there had been over 10,000 ballots cast before the doors opened this morning===

Huh? ==

Well
In total, there were 5,060 absentee and early voting ballots filed, including 4,698 Democratic, 310 Republican and 52 Green.

So using the classic vote twice in Chicago joke what do you get?

5,120

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

Those are city. There are county, but it's not another 5K

ac · 10 months ago

===Somewhat less than half. ===
He has less than half of the committeeman votes, however, I don't think that is a good representation of the size and power of the ward organizations backing him -- Mell, Banks, Schulter, and maybe more. Are any major ward organziations backing Feigenholtz or Quigley?

47th Ward · 10 months ago

The 3:00 turnout in precinct 17 was 67 in person (both touch screen and paper) with another 6 early votes plus an additional 6 absentee votes. The judge was optimistic that they'd get close to 100 before the polls closed.

There are roughly 600 voters in the precinct. Pathetic.

A Fritchey passer was present, and weirdly, there were tons of Bryar signs. No visible presence from any other candidates.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

It is about 8,000 votes cast already. I had a wrong number on absintees. Mnay of the precincts are coming in at 80% or 90% of my projected TO. Everyone has a story about a lousy precinct or two but this TO is going to surpass 46,000 easily.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

All this talk of ballots cast nearing 100 votes per precinct. Remember 100 votes per precinct equates to a TO of 60,000. It obviously won't hit that, but a TO in the mid to upper 40's is probable.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Do the math fellas. 200 precincts at 100 votes each is 20,000. Another 200 precincts at 75 votes is 15,000 votes. Another 200 precincts at 50 votes is 10,000 votes. That is 45,000 votes on a very crude, conservative model. It isn't hard to get to the upper 40's or even 50,000 today. And a model similar to this would explain the wide variance in reports we are hearing.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

do you agree or no?

babs · 10 months ago

Rich,
City total of early votes is 4090.

EmptySuitParade · 10 months ago

anybody check the 'burbs...I bet Skip is really turning out GOP votes.....could be the next Flannagan

Scooby · 10 months ago

It's strange that the House was in session today with two of the members on the ballot while the Senate was not. I guess the people's business must go on but it wouldn't have surprised me if they had cancelled today.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

I have been in over 20 precincts today and all of them were on pace to hit 100 votes cast. I am heading east in a moment to see how they compare.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

Cook County suburban early votes: 311. Less than ten absentees received so far.

I still don't know where you're getting 8K.

Anonymous · 10 months ago

Aside from the obvious close-ties to north(west) side ward bosses, I've been somewhat surprised by the lack of "bossism" charges against John Fritchey in this campaign.

Fritchey's the Democratic Ward Committeeman for the 32nd Ward. This is the same job convicted felon and former Congressman Dan Rostenkowski held onto for decades.

Reformer? Give us a break! Fritchey may be "personally honest" in the Richard J. Daley mold, but he's just as power hungry as RJD.

Also, Fritchey's campaign ads have a great message: 'Barack Obama...blah blah blah...I have no agenda but I'm honest...blah blah blah...Barack Obama...vote for me...and in case you didn't hear me before, Barack Obama.'

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

===I’ve been somewhat surprised by the lack of “bossism” charges against John Fritchey in this campaign.===

Then you haven't been reading the Tribune.

GOTV · 10 months ago

Just heard someone doorhanging on my porch. I opened the door and the SEIU volunteer (walk sheet of women in hand) asked if I had voted. He pointed to the doorhanger in my hand but couldn't pronounce Sara's last name if his life depended on it.

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Rich, you are ocd-ing over this absintee/early vote issue. From what I have seen it was a little over 4,000 early votes cast anf a little under 4,000 absintee ballots. They are seperate and distinct things. I an confirm this by the 12 to 15 names on a seperate list I have seen in each precincts. Ten names per precinct gets you to 6,000 addidtional votes. Fifteen names per precinct vgets you to 9,000 additional votes. It is going to be somewhere in-between those numbers. Get it yet?

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Bro, tell me you understand. I was merely rounding up to 10,000 earlier for discussion purposes. It will more likely be about 8,000 early/absintee votes.

Wordsmif · 10 months ago

What's an antonym for "droves"?

lincoln street · 10 months ago

smidges

Amy · 10 months ago

report from pal's after school with kids in van... her pct. had 78 voters total, signs for Caparelli, Annunzio and O'Connor. Two pcts. driven by, one signs for O'Connor, Bryar, Wheelan,Forys, the other had those plus Fritchey and Geoghan. these are 45 and 41. Quigley signs up on corners and fences. No Feigenholtz viz anywhere.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

Yes

Laborguy · 10 months ago

Fritchey's guys are taking down Sara's signs allover the district. I have caught several of them. Nothing we can do about unless we want to watch them all day long. Typical Machine crap. It won't have an impact on the outcome. We just keep running votes.

I gotta say · 10 months ago

Way to go GOTV, make fun of the low wage worker that took a day off to try to get you off your bum and participate in the civic process. Sometimes I mess up a candidates name after I haven't talked to someone in awhile.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

Take it easy. Sending out workers who can't pronounce a candidate's name is fair game. Plus, that person already voted.

Amy · 10 months ago

here's hoping that some of this energy on the Dem side can be translated into helping elect some Dems in the township races. to the one who wins, go help someone. to those who lose, you will feel better if you help grow more dems who can help you in the future. the time is ripe for change in the burbs.

oneman · 10 months ago

Laborguy
It's always the other guy taking your signs down. It's never any of your guys taking the other guys signs down.

Mr. Know-it-All · 10 months ago

Amy - let's not forget that this is a weird election calendar, and we in the 5th CD can't let our guard down for the general on 4/7. Can't let another Flanagan happen. Let's put down our swords (even you, Bill and Jerry) and band together and keep this seat Blue!

WindyCityGardener · 10 months ago

I must have gotten 5 calls this weekend for Sara. I kept saying no but they still called. A couple of callers barely spoke English. I could not understand them at all. But they did know how to say Sarah.
I just got home from work and Sara's people are knocking on my door. It seems like desperation to me. Please stop.

WindyCityGardener · 10 months ago

Mr. Know-it-All
Can't let another Flanagan happen ? Oh you are so right. Blagojevich did so much for Illinois when he had that seat. LOL

Northshore Blue Dog · 10 months ago

Well, I usually takethe signs down at 3am while I'm dressing the polls.... then i take a whole bunch of my own candidate's signs and throw them in the dumpster outside the opposition's HQ and call the cops :)

Amy · 10 months ago

Mr. Know-it-All....to be sure. but we have to expand to really change things. i'm sure it won't be easy, and I don't have a horse in the 5th CD race, but time to get together after to get that done and move on to the burbs.

GOTV · 10 months ago

"I gotta say" - my post wasn't making fun of anyone, rather pointing out that Sara's canvassers aren't terribly effective at engaging voters. You, however, found the need to insult me in your post. And yes, as Rich said, I have already gotten "off my bum" and done my civic duty. So yeah, take it easy.

WindyCityGardener · 10 months ago

Amy and Mr. Know-it-All
So sorry I forgot. We don't want to remind voters it was the DEMOCRAT Blagojevich who held that seat and turned it over to Rahm and the Daley DEMOCRATS. Silence is golden.
What a dirty primary that was. Poor Nancy Kazak. She had no clue what was coming her way. THE MACHINE.

Amy · 10 months ago

funny, when I think of the dems i think of FDR, JFK, Obama and when I think of Republicans i think of Hoover, Nixon and Bush....the Mission Accomplished Bush. i'll take my side despite some faults. and today's winner might just be a reformer. ya never know.

I gotta say · 10 months ago

I don't think I was insulting you GOTV as the purpose of GOTV is to get you off your bum. Unlike Forys, Feigenholtz is pronouced as read. And to you and your big brother Miller, I don't particulary agree that volunteers are fair game--unless instructed to do something illegal or unethical or not instructed to participate in illegal or unethical behavior. Volunteers, god love 'em.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

===Poor Nancy Kazak. She had no clue what was coming her way. ===

She knew. She lost the race twice. First to RRB, then to Rahmbo. If she didn't know, she was clueless. Don't cry for her, Argentina.

Rich Miller · 10 months ago

I gotta say, I gotta advise you to take a tranquilizer or do a shot or something. Enough.

Anonymous ZZZ · 10 months ago

Just got back from voting in the 44th ward, precinct 36. I voted around 6 p.m. and according to the pollworkers, I was number 57. Turnout was only at about 5 percent.

Sara's people were out in full force: Rep. Schoenberg shoved a Sara flier in my face as soon as I exited the train station, Sara herself was about 10 feet away greeting people, and as I crossed the street to go to the polling place, I was handed another piece of Sara literature. None of the other candidates had people out there.

wordslinger · 10 months ago

--Turnout was only at about 5 percent.--

I know it's just one precinct, but with just an hour before closing, that's incredible.

Anonymous ZZZ · 10 months ago

wordslinger - I know, I was shocked. She's my State Rep, I would have expected a better turnout in my precinct.

lincoln street · 10 months ago

Anonymous ZZZ said
>Just got back from voting in the 44th ward, precinct 36. I voted around 6 p.m. and according to the pollworkers, I was number 57. Turnout was only at about 5 percent.

Then Wordslinger said:
>I know it’s just one precinct, but with just an hour before closing, that’s incredible.

It IS incredible. For that to be 5%, they'd have to have 1,140 voters in that precinct. That's possible, but I doubt it. My guess is that 57 voters is closer to 10%, given the normal size of city precincts.

south of 74 · 10 months ago

Being removed from the fray and reading all the posts here - I predict it is going to be the Polish guy in what the papers are going to call a real shocker.

Ramsin · 10 months ago

If south of 74 is right, I have to admit it'd be pretty awesome to have all the political types talking about "that polish guy" for the next year.