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Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Liberal in 10th — Sat, 30 Sep 2006 16:05:04 -0000

I know this thread is old, but I stumbled upon it while doing some research. If anyone is still looking, check out http://www.kirkfacts.com/ to see how much farther left Mark Kirk could go. And due to the very glossy flyers I have been getting in the mail that I didn't get two or four years ago, I think this race is in play.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

NorthShoreDad — Sun, 24 Sep 2006 16:00:50 -0000

Let's review ... Kirk is endorsed by lefties at Planned Parenthood, the lefties at the National Education Association, the anti-2nd amendment Brady Campaign. Kirk wants to prohibit drilling in ANWR for a new source for domestic oil. In fact, it's darn hard to find a domestic issue where he doesn't sound like a leftie himself. Now why on earth would anyone thing that someone much farther to the left has a chance against Kirk?

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Highland Park observer — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 20:27:03 -0000

Seals has no shot at all...the man's clawing for every vote here in his home base of highland park. there are a lot of 'democrats for kirk' around here--and any traction Seals may have gotten has dissipated over the last few days because of some comments he made in Buffalo Grove that called for an immediate ceasefire in Israel and an examination of the "underlying causes" of the conflict. add to that Kirk's endorsements by Planned Parenthood, Human Rights Campaign, Brady Campaign and a 100% rating from NARAL, Seals will be trying to convince Democrats to vote for him through November.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Publius — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 15:54:42 -0000

dylan's distortions are quite amusing. the truth is that Congressman Kirk's membership on the Appropriations Committee enabled him to secure $43 million to open up a North Chicago veterans hospital and improve the Great Lakes Naval Training Center. These facts show Kirk's committment to improving the business communities of Waukegan and North Chicago. Any concerned and educated citizen who has access to the Chicago Tribune would have discovered this information by now.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Ed — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 10:34:41 -0000

"Has Kirk visited a local VA hospital, and explained to the patients why he voted to slash veteransÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ benefits and pensions? And heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a Navy vet. Shame on him."

He could go visit the North Chicago VA Medical Center and explain how he kept it from being closed down.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Cap — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 10:26:45 -0000

I've noticed that all the anti Mark Kirk people are long on rhetoric and short on facts. Can you back up any of what you are saying with some actual evidence?

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Ed — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 10:24:57 -0000

"Has Kirk visited a local VA hospital, and explained to the patients why he voted to slash veteransÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ benefits and pensions? And heÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a Navy vet. Shame on him.

Has he visited a seniorsÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ facility and explained why he voted for a drug plan that has made their necessary medicine financially beyond their means, to the overwhelming benefit of the multi-billion-dollar pharmaceutical industry?

Can he explain how he can call himself a moderate, when he has voted 85% of the time with the most conservative legislators in Congress, like Tom DeLay?

And no, Ed, IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢m not a staffer; IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢m a concerned citizen in the Tenth District who is ready for a representative in Congress who truly & fairly represents all the constituents in our district with dignity, honesty, & respect. IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ve lived here long enough to see that Kirk is NOT that kind of representative. "

Do you think the people in planned parenthood and all the other moderate/liberal organizations are stupid? That they would be fooled by this so-called smokescreen? They are focused on their single issue and they will know if a candidate says one thing and does another. The fact that Mark Kirk has won these endorsements goes to show that he means what he says.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Vote Counter — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 03:44:58 -0000

All elections depend on who comes out to vote, and looking the situation of this election indicates that any number of "long-shot" candidates could make an unexpected win in November.

The important thing is to remember what other names are going to be on the ballot. In Illinois the only other race that matters much at all to most people is the Governor's race. I think it's more than likely there won't be a governor's race by October--if Blagojevich is not indicted he will crush Topinka. Further, even under competetive circumstances, Topinka certainly isn't one who inspires Republicans to go to the polls.

So who's going to show up to vote November 7th? Well, some people show up pretty much always, but the vast majority only go when they have some interest in what or who is being voted on. With the wave of anti-congress and anti-Republican sentiment that seems to be ongoing, there is little to motivate conservative voters to the polls in Illinois, while many liberals and independents may go to the polls looking to change the current power structure. A significant voter push in Waukegan and other Democratic areas may be all it takes to topple Kirk. The mentality of peopel such as "Ed" may be the best thing that Seals has going for him--much like what happened to Phil Crane in 2004, Kirk may be rudely surprised when an unexpected mix of voters goes to the polls.

This analysis also hints at other Republican vulnerabilities in the state. If Republicans don't motivate their voters (it's been pretty tough for us in Illinois) then Democratic victories may happen not only in the 8th, 6th, and 10th, but in some other longshot congressional races, such as IL-11 and IL-15. Time after time I have heard fellow Republicans unenthusiastic about their elections, and absent being given some enthusiasm by the lackluster Kirk (or Johnson, or Weller) or Topinka, then I fear there may be many Republican casualties in Illinois this November.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Michael — Sat, 29 Jul 2006 01:49:56 -0000

dylan's distortions are quite amusing. Obviously, if dylan did his homework he would have learned that as a member of the Appropriations Committee Kirk helped secure $43 million to expand a veterans hospital in North Chicago and upgrade a Great Lakes Naval Training Center. These actions coincide with Kirk's devotion to improving the business communities of both Waukegan and North Chicago. This information is available from the Chicago Tribune and any concerned and educated citizen from the 10th district would have discovered it by now.

And as usual this blog continues the distortions on Iraq. BOTH houses of Congress, BOTH Republicans AND Democrats, overwhelming authorized Bush's use of military force in Iraq based on intelligence that even Bill Clinton had used when he bombed Iraq in 1998. But this is again, besides the point. After Persian Gulf I, Hussein was kept in power only on the condition that he would be forthright and honest with weapons inspectors. 17 UN resolutions later he still wasn't honest with the inspectors even though the burden of proof was on him--by his own agreement in 1991! Bush had to take action and the majority of the country and Congress supported him. Even if you were against the war then and now, don't you think we need to win this war today to prevent Iraq from becoming an Al Qaeda base tomorrow? Shouldn't we try to finish the job and help the Iraqi people who were oppressed for so many years? All the Dem's can do is point fingers and advocate withdrawal. Some plan! Instead of working constructively to help the Iraqi people and the region in general, the Dem's are playing the familiar blame game. I think 10th District voters will be smart enough to expose this sham for what it really is. If we don't stand united in this War on Terror, we risk a future not even worth contemplating.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Morris — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 22:58:35 -0000

Kirk is no moderate. Just a neo-con with a Madison Avenue happy talk campaign. He counts on voters believing the surface cliche punditry and not taking the time to look at the real substance of his votes and activism. Kirk's problem now is that there is a spotlight on him because of his early, consistent and unquestioning support for the Iraq War and now loud activism for a very difficult road in Lebanon. Parents in this family-oriented and educated district, the bulk of them relatively wealthy, but not wealthy enough to avoid all of real life, do not want to send their sons to war, and have perked up and started to pay attention. Kirk is in trouble unless there is a huge success in Lebanon for eventual Middle East peace which is unlikely in the short term before the election.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Lucky Mom — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 21:54:30 -0000

Mark Kirk is who he is -- he is the assistant majority whip. He's a great staffer for the republican right -- he's just voted twice this week to oppose raising the minimum wage. Now, the Republicans want to get cute by offering a raise in the minimum wage but only if there is a further tax cut (which America cannot afford).

Kirk is a talented politician, but he is a terrible governor. Just like the rest of the party. The Republicans get what makes folk tick -- fear, fear of terrorists, fear of pedophiles, fear of governments taking one's hard earned money -- but they are so focused on reaping the benefits of power that they just can't get it together to fight a war, to help the victims of disaster, to prepare for future natural or other disasters.

Throw 'em out and get some grownups. I am tired of listening to pretty words and seeing the world fall to pieces.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

dylan — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 20:52:01 -0000

Has Kirk visited a local VA hospital, and explained to the patients why he voted to slash veteransÃ¢â‚¬â„¢ benefits and pensions? And he's a Navy vet. Shame on him.

Can he explain how he can call himself a moderate, when he has voted 85% of the time with the most conservative legislators in Congress, like Tom DeLay?

And no, Ed, I'm not a staffer; I'm a concerned citizen in the Tenth District who is ready for a representative in Congress who truly & fairly represents all the constituents in our district with dignity, honesty, & respect. I've lived here long enough to see that Kirk is NOT that kind of representative.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Another country heard from — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 19:59:54 -0000

Dan Seals can definitely win if he can educate the voters of the tenth- Kirk's rating with the LCV is 39%; NOW rates him 50%; amd the National Parent-Teacher Assoc, 8 %. His so called suburban agenda is a smokescreen and diversion from his record on federal issues. Kissing puppies and phoning it in instead of holding Townhall meetings is not going to fool the tenth. He has more money on hand because he started out with over a million in the bank and because the incumbent can get out his message on taxpayers' dollars. (How do you like those nauseating four color brochures now?) I'd guess he didn't have to pay for his townhall phone call; he can pretend that it's part of his job, in much the same way as he did 'business' at a synagogue. He doesn't have to spend the money he's gotten from the likes of Tom DeLay, Abramoff and Duke Cunningham.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

anonymous 2 — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 19:36:12 -0000

i support seals but that kirk with the dogs video is lame and may hurt the cause.
and didn't goodman have a "pets for goodman" on his campaign web page?
kirk's a chameleon, which means in this congress he's been no moderate, and his choice record sux ~ but perception is all and the man on the street still thinks he's moderate. how DOES he do it? by only calling on people from arlington heights in his town-a-thons?

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Jonah — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:54:52 -0000

Facts of Life, it is obvious that you are a staffer or volunteer for Seals, which is fine. But pipe dreams about defeating Mark Kirk are not going to happen. We heard this spin about Goodman in 2004, and it was just a phony war. Kirk is a moderate pro choice Republican who will keep the seat for 20 years like his GOP mentor John Porter. Good luck to you.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

The Facts of Life — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:45:44 -0000

Ed,

I'm glad your so confident, if that's the official line, it will make Kirk that much easeir to beat. And it's not that voters will confuse Kirk for Bush, they will punush Kirk who being pro-Bush. Has Kirk ever criticized the adminstration? When it comes down to it, his money advantage will be neutralized, he'll be recognized as a Republican, the anti-incumbency mood across the country is huge right now, especially if you happen to be Republican, a voting record that cynically attempts to take moderate votes while kotowing the unmoderate adminstration and leadership, and a few endorsements that typically would have gone to a Dem. He's definetley got an advantage, but then again, so did Phil Crane. As for Red to Blue, just wait and see.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

bored now — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:28:04 -0000

lurker, you're right, that's the next step. if seals can't get listed there, then he can't count on dccc help in the fall. there are metrics that every dem campaign must meet, and -- so far -- seals has worked his way through his checklist. the red-to-blue designation is an important one to watch...

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

lurker — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:22:39 -0000

I have a question for the Seal's fans out there. If Dan Seal's is so competitive and Mark Kirk is so weak, then why hasn't the Democratic Congressional Committee listed the 10th as one of their targeted "Red to Blue" campaigns? And it's not like they're trying to keep the list small or something
https://www2.dccc.org/contr...

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Ed — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:11:12 -0000

"Seals has consistently been raising money, and will continue to do so. Why is it so hard for you to admit that Kirk is going to have to campaign? If I was a die hard Kirk supporter, I wouldnÃ¢â‚¬â„¢t want him to have to defend his record either."

Kirk would campaign no matter what. Hell, he campaigned when Lee Goodman was running against him. It's only prudent. But the fact that Kirk is and will continue to campaign does not change the fact that he is hugely popular in the 10th district.

So let's just run down the checklist here. In Kirk's favor we have:

Massive money advantage
Massive name recognition advantage
Incumbency
A voting record that is largely in line with the feelings in the district
More endorsements than you can count

In Dan Seal's favor we have:........ummmm.....wait wait, i'm getting something....OH YEAH, some people might confuse Mark Kirk with George Bush.

Yeah, i'm really worried about Kirk's prospects.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Jonah — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 16:10:46 -0000

Kirk's 2000 opponent Lauren Beth Gash raised over 2 Million , and was a local state Senator with strong Support from Emily's list. She was a strong DEM CANDIDATE in a Dem Leaning Open Seat district and still lost to Mark Kirk. Seals has never held elective office. He is toast.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

The Facts of Life — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:48:05 -0000

Perrit raised less than 500K total, Seals has raised close to 800k, and Seals had a primary. It's not going to be easy for him to close the gap, but luckily for all of us, the winner of campaign isn't always the one with the most money, otherwise we'd be stuck with Blair Hull and Jim Oberweis.

Seals has consistently been raising money, and will continue to do so. Why is it so hard for you to admit that Kirk is going to have to campaign? If I was a die hard Kirk supporter, I wouldn't want him to have to defend his record either.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Just Observing — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:45:18 -0000

Dan Seals has about a 5 percent chance of winning -- his only shot is if the district is fed up with Bush and the GOP and overwhelmingly vote Democratic -- but one on one Seals is toast.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

bored now — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:43:00 -0000

while Seals has raised more money than Mark KirkÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s previous opponents, his available funds are nothing compared to what Kirk has raised. That sends a clearer signal about how the race is going than anything else.

that's debatable. there is an argument out there that incumbents raise loads of money to intimidate challengers and their contributors, but that once challengers reach a certain threshold that enables them to get their message across to voters in their districts, the incumbent's money advantage is thence irrelevant. while i don't know if seals meets this standard (yet), i certainly buy into this argument. i'm guessing kirk does, too, since he's working hard to win *this* election. yes, the 10th is in play, if you only look at kirk's activity (and how much money he's spent thus far)...

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Jonah — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:42:09 -0000

Kirk's support of the war does not hurt him in the very Pro-Israel 10th district. He also is a pilot in the National Guard and expert on Military Matters. I was downtown when Mark Kirk spoke at the Pro Israel rally and was loudly cheered and respected.

Re: Is the 10th District in play?

Jonah — Fri, 28 Jul 2006 15:35:05 -0000

Facts, 55% to 45% is still a double digit win. Considering Kirk won his first term against Gish by 51 to 49, that is pretty good. Lauren Beth Gish was a strong candidate with big $$$$ in a Democratic leaning open seat. Kirk won because of Jon Porter's endorsement. Seals is not a serious candidate sorry. He has no buzz or traction.