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The last significant earned media Seals got was his gas stunt, which most people agree was a flop, if not worse. Meanwhile, Kirk seems to make news on a weekly basis, even getting a mention in the Wall Street Journal. Seals, on the other hand, seems to have given up the media war and is willing to bet on the DCCC coming in to fund negative ads, like the "rubber stamp" ad--but DCCC will have to do a lot better than generic "Kirk=Bush" stuff to have a chance in the 10th.
Kirk's stellar favorables are there for a reason--most voters in the 10th know and like Kirk--and truly believe that he's a independent thinker. What's more, they like what he thinks, by and large.
If Seals' big strategy is to use out-of-district money to push down Kirk's favorables, Kirk has a lot of ground to give way, and Seals doesn't seem to have a plan to sell himself, which he'll have to do in order to have a shot. The luster of Obama has tarnished enough lately that riding the anointed one's coattails doesn't seem to be much of a plan anymore, either.
(Full disclosure: I interned for Seals, but my last statement remains true; virtually every undecided or Kirk Democrat that I know of who has met Dan has come away with a positive impression of him. And Dan's own polling from last cycle at this time showed him with a ten-point lead among people who knew of both candidates.)
http://www.pollster.com/polls/il/06-il-10.php
I also wonder what the Palin effect will be given that it's not a district where a pro-life evangelical will play well.
Starting 20 points behind in Sep. 2008 doesn't equate to 20 points behind in Sep. 2006. Seals is not quite the unknown quantity he was 2 years ago, and if he can't even keep his numbers up from where he started in Nov 2006 (especially given the awful climate for the GOP back then--and which I would argue is largely looking up now), where are all these mystery voters you refer to going to come from???
I predict that he will lose by a larger margin than he did in 2006 because he continues, like most Democrats, not to stand for anything.
By successfully denying ballot access for Green Party candidate and veteran Dave Kalbfleisch, Seals has insured that he will have nobody to blame when he loses.
Hopefully the 2010 Dem candidate won't be another carpetbagger.
Sorry Seals, but being an also-ran just isn't good enough for most voters. You have a launching pad, but you needed new fuel in that rocket to get anyone excited over you again. You seem to be "the other guy", not an alternative.
http://www.kirkforcongress.com/
Given Kirk's huge amount of funds on hand, and assuming DCCC's bankrolling of Seals continues, we can probably expect this tennis match of ads to continue until Nov.
http://kirkforcongress.com/?q=contentview&c...
That's gotta be some kind of record for response time. Anyone who thought Kirk would be caught sleeping this time around is sorely mistaken.
I would suggest introducing the wimp factor ala the original George Bush. Too wimpy to vote against the war, to wimpy to go against big oil ect. Whether true or not he comes across kinda wimpy and voters need a reason to oust an incumbant. Probably too late, but he needs to brand the guy otherwise-by by.