I'm not sure how the likelihood of the GOP losing that seat is a big problem for the GOP. They are going to lose it whether or not Kirk runs. However, of the potential field to date, he is the only one in the GOP who can make a respectable run against Sen. Durbin.
It is similar to the situation that Sen. Edwards had in 2000. He was not going to hold his Senate seat, so he tried to take the next step up.
grand old partisan
· 2 years ago
I agree that Kirk would have been the best candidate against Durbin. But I think he's got a much better chance of keeping his current seat than many of the Democrats think right now. I'd put his vulernability somewhere just above Melissa Bean's. He can be beaten, but it's nowhere near a sure thing. In fact, I suspect that Kirk's voting record will start looking more and more like Bean's from her first term. He's free from the pressure of holding the hard party line in order to move things through, and can focus on his moderate, "Main Street" suburban agenda. It will be much tougher for a Democratic challenger in 2008 to paint him as an extremist, and the general backlash against all candidates with an (R) next to their name will diminish as the Democratic Congress is forced to share the credit/blame for what happens in the next two years.
I'm not sure who is the next best for taking down Durbin. I still maintain that he's vulnerable enough, and the right candidate could unseat him. But I'm not sure if the right candidate will want to take the chance on it.
Snark
· 2 years ago
I guess this would be the right time to bring this up, I've been missing Alan Keyes.
Wumpus
· 2 years ago
Dan Seals may actually have the time to move into district by then. Kirk is safe, why risk it all? Durbin, despite being Durbin seems safe.
George Ryan's Cellmate
· 2 years ago
Smart move by Kirk. As the incumbent, Kirk barely won relection with 53% against a first time candidate with no name recognition and little money. The DCCC was focused on Duckworth and gave Seals a relatively paltry $75K, so if/when Dan Seals runs again in 2008, expect him to get alot more cash and a lot more support, because the guy earned another shot.
As for the Senate, Kirk probably couldn't make it out of the primary and his candidacy would more likely draw a right-winger into the primary, ala Kustra-Salvi in 1996 and Diedrickson-Fitzgerald in 1998.
True Observer
· 2 years ago
Cowardice appears to be a character trait of Illinois politicians.
In 2004, a sitting US Senator decided not to run for reelection because he might lose.
Of 19 sitting Congressmen, not one ran for the Senate.
The elected office holders who did run were all in the middle of their terms and did not risk giving up their office.
As of now, the Republican nomination is Oberweis's for the asking.
Strange things happen in politics.
No one could have predicted the Democratic wave of 2006 6 months ago.
One surprise from the terrorists, and all bets will be off.
Limerick
· 2 years ago
Obie can never come back, 'Til he ends his alliance with Jack. It’s fine to have zest, But those folks are obsessed. They make Jimbo look like a whack.
Scoot
· 2 years ago
On deck: Ron Gidwitz?
fedup dem
· 2 years ago
Kirk is foolish not to run for Durbin's Senate seat. The trends clearly show that he would lose a rematch to Seals.
In 2008, Seals won't have to fend off the albatross of Rod "Sleazy" Blagojevich on the ballot, which probably cost him about 3% this time. Nor will Seals have to deal with the embarrassment of being on the same ticket in the Cook County portion of the district as "Toddler" Stroger, which probably shave another point or two from his totals in November. And 2008 will be a Presidential election year, which means higher turnout, and in the 10th District that wouldn't help Kirk at all.
If Kirk runs for the Senate and loses (either in a primary or gets whipped by Durbin in the general election) he will still have a political career. Just look at Jim Durkin. But if he stays put and loses a re-election bid, what does Kirk do... run for Township Supervisor in 2009?
Ravenswood Right Winger
· 2 years ago
Gidwitz definitely has the cash money to run. So does Oberweis.
Ilrino
· 2 years ago
Bill Brady stands ready. No, I'm not kidding.
Some Guy
· 2 years ago
Gidwitz had the same money in last year'r primary run for governor. He came in fourth in a four-way race. That's gotta sting. I can't see him running again, and I certainly can't see him winning after that.
Skeeter
· 2 years ago
- Ilrino - Thursday, Jan 4, 07 @ 1:45 pm:
"Bill Brady stands ready. No, I’m not kidding."
If Brady would get the nomination, it would show that the ILGOP has not learned a thing. He would be absolutely crushed by Sen. Durbin.
the januaryist
· 2 years ago
Gidwitz should gear up to run against Todd. In fact, he should have run last time. Despite his last effort and ego no one knows him outside Cook. Kirk will again be tough to beat because he’ll have the opportunity to vote with the Democrats on some issue. Rahm needs to make sure he doesn’t bring any cash home to the district so Seals can make the case that being a member of the majority is much better for voters. Too bad the voters in DuPage didn’t realize that when they elected Roskam the Hun. That guys in a double minority in Congress. He’s a right-wing Republican whose reign has ended.
Goldielocks
· 2 years ago
I'm incredibly dissapointed that Kirk didn't make a run at Durbin, but I am glad that his head is in the right place. Although he would have been the GOPs best chance to unseat Durbin, he rightfully should focus on continuing to do what's best for the 10th district.
Illinoisian
· 2 years ago
I'm incredibly dissapointed that Kirk didn't make a run at Durbin, but I am glad that his head is in the right place. Although he would have been the GOPs best chance to unseat Durbin, he rightfully should focus on continuing to do what's best for the 10th district.
Illinoisian
· 2 years ago
sorry it got posted twice!
Sango Dem
· 2 years ago
If the GOP can't beat Blagojevich, how the hell are they going to beat Durbin? At least Durbin will do better than 30% in Central Illinois, which is more than you can say for Rod. Kirk has some basic political sense.
Reddbyrd
· 2 years ago
Kirk will be lucky to hold onto the 8th. He is pretty much an empty suit by most accounts. Few accomplishments and even less expected a member of the minority. It would have been an easy race for Durbin
Way Northsider
· 2 years ago
Kirk will lose in the 10th and he would lose if he ran against Durbin. He is between a rock and a hard place and that is exactly where he deserves to be for saying one thing in his district and doing another in Washington. He is done.
Lovie's Leather
· 2 years ago
In the biggest democratic sweep of Congress in a very, very long time, Kirk still won by 6 points. Not a chance Kirk will lose. I said I would vote for Hillary Clinton if Kirk lost, and he won. And he will keep winning no matter the demographics of the district. But Kirk saying he is not going to run for senate is non-news right now. He wouldn't speculate even if he was going to run. Ask John McCain if he is running for president right now and what would the answer be? "I am considering it."
MIDSTATE
· 2 years ago
Someone needs to run against Durbin. He does not represent the values of Illinois anymore, if he ever did. He acts like he represents N.Y. or Cal.
Mr. Luxury Yacht
· 2 years ago
Actually, Midstate, someone needs to tell the Illinois Republican Party that THEY do not represent the values of Illinois anymore. As evidenced by...well, the voters of Illinois.
In case you've missed it, the Chicago area continues to increase its share of the state's population. Even though R's still get votes in many suburbs, many that recently were reliably R have flipped or will soon, because of any number of factors; growth in the Hispanic population, energy costs (which make that Let's Live As Far Away As Possible From Chicago idea decidedly less appealing), general education levels (statisticatlly, the more book learnin' ya git, the more likely you are to vote Democratic), etc.
Point? Durbin acts like he represents NY or CA because IL is more like NY or CA all the time. And despite national trends that have us all moving to Arizona, here in IL that trend ain't changin' anytime soon. The IRP needs to pull back from the insane right edge (cf Keyes, Brady, Oberweis, Roesser, etc.) or it needs to find something else that it can actually do.
Why Seals?
· 2 years ago
I agree that the district is leaning more Democratic, but Seals isn't entitled. If he couldn't win in this environment, maybe he should step aside for someone who can beat Kirk.
Loyal Whig
· 2 years ago
The Republican Party is so weak satewide, Kirk is smart to run in a race he can win. Stay in the House, why deal with the litmus test all Repubs face in statewide primary races. Only a repub with his positions can win in the tenth district. A repub with those views is doomed in a repub primary statewide.
Anon
· 2 years ago
Latest FEC figures are out for the full 2005-2006 election cycle.
Two notable bits:
1) Dan Seals raised a total of $1.9 million. Mighty impressive. He has $50k left.
2) Kirk spent $3.5 million, raised $3.2 million. To eke out his victory he had to blow through almost all of his cash--only $104k left!
No wonder Kirk won't run for the Senate. He had to use his stockpile to save his seat.
Sage
· 2 years ago
With a moderate image combined with personal depth, Kirk could give Durbin the race of his life. Kirk is smart and good on the issues for a statewide run. Durbin has made comments that like it or not, will haunt him in an election if he has a challenger with gravitas. Durbin has plenty aspects of his record severely out of sync with the majority of mainstream IL voters that COULD be exploited if a Republican campaign is smart enough.
That said, the notion that Kirk can be beat in the 10th is fantasy. In the year of the Perfect Storm for Democrats, Kirk bottomed out at 53%. 55% is generallly considered a landslide. Lake County is flipping. But good Republicans can win in strong Democrat districts. Watch, wait and learn.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
As long as no one wants to redefine Durbin in a way to beat him, he can't be defeated.
There is so much to not like about Durbin, but nothing big or personal. Any candidate will need to take all his negatives and spin a narrative that explains Durbin in a negative way and in a way that fits within voter's perception of him. That will be a very difficult thing to do because at the same time, Durbin's opponent will need to inflate their resume and credentials.
All office holders mold their opposition. Durbin is so spineless and so shallow, he hasn't molded anyone. That is Durbin's weakness as a national leader, but his strength as a candidate. Illinois has the worst of both worlds in Durbin.
As long as Dick continues his sweet spineless ways, there will not be enough vinegar to remove his corroding blandness.
RAI
· 2 years ago
I have 2 words for you Durbin guys Tom Dachel. Nice moderate at home flaming liberal nationally. Sound familiar? Senator Thune raised millions from across the country because of Dachel's leadership position the same can be done with Durbin but more so, Dachel pretended to be a nice guy, Durbin has never tried to hide his partisanship.
Lux Yacht None of the right edge people you named were elected officials. The IL GOP cannot be separated from the IL Democrats they have the same tax raiser, big government, center to liberal positions. It was the Regan revolution that got allot of us to become Republicans and it is finally time for the change to take place and offer the voters of Illinois a choice. Remember this 1994 the GOP held all of the power in Illinois the votes are there if you know what the voters want.
All Comments
It is similar to the situation that Sen. Edwards had in 2000. He was not going to hold his Senate seat, so he tried to take the next step up.
I'm not sure who is the next best for taking down Durbin. I still maintain that he's vulnerable enough, and the right candidate could unseat him. But I'm not sure if the right candidate will want to take the chance on it.
As for the Senate, Kirk probably couldn't make it out of the primary and his candidacy would more likely draw a right-winger into the primary, ala Kustra-Salvi in 1996 and Diedrickson-Fitzgerald in 1998.
In 2004, a sitting US Senator decided not to run for reelection because he might lose.
Of 19 sitting Congressmen, not one ran for the Senate.
The elected office holders who did run were all in the middle of their terms and did not risk giving up their office.
As of now, the Republican nomination is Oberweis's for the asking.
Strange things happen in politics.
No one could have predicted the Democratic wave of 2006 6 months ago.
One surprise from the terrorists, and all bets will be off.
'Til he ends his alliance with Jack.
It’s fine to have zest,
But those folks are obsessed.
They make Jimbo look like a whack.
In 2008, Seals won't have to fend off the albatross of Rod "Sleazy" Blagojevich on the ballot, which probably cost him about 3% this time. Nor will Seals have to deal with the embarrassment of being on the same ticket in the Cook County portion of the district as "Toddler" Stroger, which probably shave another point or two from his totals in November. And 2008 will be a Presidential election year, which means higher turnout, and in the 10th District that wouldn't help Kirk at all.
If Kirk runs for the Senate and loses (either in a primary or gets whipped by Durbin in the general election) he will still have a political career. Just look at Jim Durkin. But if he stays put and loses a re-election bid, what does Kirk do... run for Township Supervisor in 2009?
"Bill Brady stands ready. No, I’m not kidding."
If Brady would get the nomination, it would show that the ILGOP has not learned a thing. He would be absolutely crushed by Sen. Durbin.
In case you've missed it, the Chicago area continues to increase its share of the state's population. Even though R's still get votes in many suburbs, many that recently were reliably R have flipped or will soon, because of any number of factors; growth in the Hispanic population, energy costs (which make that Let's Live As Far Away As Possible From Chicago idea decidedly less appealing), general education levels (statisticatlly, the more book learnin' ya git, the more likely you are to vote Democratic), etc.
Point? Durbin acts like he represents NY or CA because IL is more like NY or CA all the time. And despite national trends that have us all moving to Arizona, here in IL that trend ain't changin' anytime soon. The IRP needs to pull back from the insane right edge (cf Keyes, Brady, Oberweis, Roesser, etc.) or it needs to find something else that it can actually do.
Two notable bits:
1) Dan Seals raised a total of $1.9 million. Mighty impressive. He has $50k left.
2) Kirk spent $3.5 million, raised $3.2 million. To eke out his victory he had to blow through almost all of his cash--only $104k left!
No wonder Kirk won't run for the Senate. He had to use his stockpile to save his seat.
That said, the notion that Kirk can be beat in the 10th is fantasy. In the year of the Perfect Storm for Democrats, Kirk bottomed out at 53%. 55% is generallly considered a landslide. Lake County is flipping. But good Republicans can win in strong Democrat districts. Watch, wait and learn.
There is so much to not like about Durbin, but nothing big or personal. Any candidate will need to take all his negatives and spin a narrative that explains Durbin in a negative way and in a way that fits within voter's perception of him. That will be a very difficult thing to do because at the same time, Durbin's opponent will need to inflate their resume and credentials.
All office holders mold their opposition. Durbin is so spineless and so shallow, he hasn't molded anyone. That is Durbin's weakness as a national leader, but his strength as a candidate. Illinois has the worst of both worlds in Durbin.
As long as Dick continues his sweet spineless ways, there will not be enough vinegar to remove his corroding blandness.
Lux Yacht
None of the right edge people you named were elected officials. The IL GOP cannot be separated from the IL Democrats they have the same tax raiser, big government, center to liberal positions. It was the Regan revolution that got allot of us to become Republicans and it is finally time for the change to take place and offer the voters of Illinois a choice.
Remember this 1994 the GOP held all of the power in Illinois the votes are there if you know what the voters want.