This might be really scary IF there were a real strong alternative to rival the Mayor.
His numbers might end up looking weak against an unspecified generic opponent, but would probably look much greater against any specific person who might step forward to challenge.
People are unhappy, and that translates to poor general numbers for the people in office. But elections are contests between two (or more) real people, and the challengers will all have heir own baggage.
Ghost
· 8 months ago
It would have been interesting to ask if they urrent dis satisfaction was tied to the tax rates, parking meter sale, or just failure to make repairs in roads etc.
Why are chicagoans disatisfied; and should the Mayor stop saying to them, let them eat cake.
anon
· 8 months ago
I dont buy it. SEIU is one of the Mayor's biggest foes, and they commissioned the poll. I believe that the people of Chicago still love the Mayor because he gets things done and has kept the city moving forward through good times and bad.
wordslinger
· 8 months ago
Daley's fortunate that in the past year he's had other officials attracting most of the attention: Obama, in a largely positive way; plus Blago, Stroger and Burris in negative ways.
Still, you can't beat somebody with nobody. At this point, I think only Fitz could pry Daley out of office against his will.
What's interesting from the survey responses is that it appears people don't know or have forgotten that Chicago is a Strong Council/Weak Mayor system. They can already tell him what to do and how to collect and spend the money. They've just chosen not to do so.
Those are the benefits of an absurdly large city council and vacancy appointment power, among other things.
fedup dem
· 8 months ago
This poll bodes well for one man who might want to make a run for Mayor in 2011 and who has currently has a position of importance that he might be willing to give up at that time... White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.
Wumpus
· 8 months ago
Only Barack Obama can beat the Mayor. Maybe Rod could run?
VanillaMan
· 8 months ago
No polls sponsored by SEIU about Daley is going to be honest.
The Doc
· 8 months ago
===I believe that the people of Chicago still love the Mayor because he gets things done and has kept the city moving forward through good times and bad.===
Anon, that argument would've flown several years back, but certainly not anymore. Not sure what you consider "getting things done" and "moving the city forward".
I see a demoralized police force, endemic fraud in city hiring practices, crumbling streets and mass transit, a failing school system, a multimillion dollar budget deficit, a litany of oppressive fines, fees, & taxes, hocking major city assets for pennies on the dollar, and a dangerous Olympic obsession.
So tell me again how he's moving the city forward and getting things done?
Anonymous45
· 8 months ago
I agree that the poll results should be taken with a grain of salt, however, big US cities in general are in a state of decline and are crumbling with massive debt...privatization of muni assets are an issue for me...what does he do with all that money? Where does it say the alderpersons shouldn't share in the financial windfall in their wards?
What about block 37 and the State Street subway station? Why dump all that money there and not distribute it throughout the ancient CTA system?
What about crowding in Latino Chicago Public Schools? The Huberman appointment?
Demographics may be against Daley in the next election, but as others have mentioned, who can best him?
wordslinger
· 8 months ago
--Maybe Rod could run?--
Wumpus, that's occurred to me, as well. At this point, who can say what's too crazy?
Steve
· 8 months ago
It's difficult to believe these poll numbers because there's been no real opposition to high taxes and spending.The people who live in Chicago don't mind paying higher taxes for bad public schools.They don't mind paying the highest sales tax in the nation.They don't mind a lot of things.Chicago voters also,could care less about corruption.
paddyrollingstone
· 8 months ago
I look on these numbers with great skepticism as it was a poll commishioned by a group which is opposed to Daley. Moreover, I bet very few Governors or Mayors (notwithstanding those just elected) are polling well nowadays with the economy firmly in the dumps. And as someone above so aptly said, "you can't beat somebody wiht nobody."
Maggie
· 8 months ago
“important to have a progressive voice at the table when important issues are being discussed in Chicago,â€
I think I'm going to barf. God I hate that over used tired word. Progressive. It's 2009.
paddyrollingstone
· 8 months ago
Commishioned? sorry I meant "commissioned."
huh?
· 8 months ago
There has got to be an end to the Daley era sometime right? Now more then ever, I do truly think that we are starting to move closer to the light at the end of the tunnel. As posters above have already stated, CPD's moral is at subterranean levels, and corruption throughout the city is rampant. With all of the fed's running around Chicago and the state at large, I wonder if they do not have him in their sights as the end goal...? Food for thought.
Either way, these numbers, while not good, and the condition of Chicago while also being not good, hopefully is a sign that people are starting to wise up about the thoroughly corrupt and inept government that is in place in the city. But as I like to say..."Expect the worst, Hope for the best".
L.S.
· 8 months ago
This reminds me of those polls blago used to commission on health care: "90% of respondents said they would vote for a member of the General Assembly if they gave them better health care" No kidding. Offering verbal support of a vague, postive sounding one-line message does not reflect a broad consensous. I think any office holder with any kind of profile outside Obama is going to take a hit in the polls.
Brennan
· 8 months ago
Perhaps Capitol Fax Blog readers can help.
The SEIU-Illinois council paid for this poll. The SEIU-Illinois council has used the poll data to stage a demonstration in Daley Plaza. The SEIU-Illinois council is the sole sponsor of the Progress Illinois blog. The SEIU-Illinois commissioned a Democratic polling outfit to conduct the poll.
1) Please ask the SEIU to release ALL the raw data for this poll. 2) Is anyone else concerned about the ethical boundaries the SEIU and Progress Illinois tip toe along to get their message out?
Call me crazy, but the SEIU-Illinois council has paid for a poll and the reporting outfit that is the only press source that has seen the raw data and these concerns are raised generically in only one reader reply thus far.
Brennan
· 8 months ago
==This reminds me of those polls blago used to commission on health care: “90% of respondents said they would vote for a member of the General Assembly if they gave them better health care†No kidding.==
Do the research? Might be the same polling outfit. Might even be paid by the SEIU-Illinois. The SEIU-Illinois was and is a major supporter of Governor Blagojevich and perhaps most of the former Governor's ambitious healthcare increases without raising income taxes. Without their support his 2006 re-election caucus looks pretty weak.
Scooby
· 8 months ago
I get that tinfoil hats are in season, but who would pay $20 - 30 grand for a poll that has cooked data? What's the point? Every pollster has a methodology bias, but the results are likely within the margin of error.
Al Swearengen
· 8 months ago
Brennan, You are dead on about this. Progress Illinois’ status as a puppet state for SEIU really doesn’t matter much, as the blogosphere is not where the rest of America lives. Just ask President Dean and Congressman Geoghegan.
And let's not forget that Bennett, Petts is not exactly one of the best polling firms around. Sampling more African-Americans than whites in a poll of all of Chicago? And 500 people is not a big sample at all.
I know SEIU has enjoyed having alderman in satellite republic wards this time around (Fioretti, Dixon, Thompson, etc.) But beating Rich Daley is a whole different story than taking out Madeline Haithcock and Mike Chandler. So for all the glee that the janitors union puts forth on this, they still know in their hearts that Chicagoans still like their Mayor a lot.
Brennan
· 8 months ago
==So tell me again how he’s moving the city forward and getting things done?==
About the only way he's getting his measures supported by the City Council is through the trading of racial favors. The Mayor's opposition rolls over and plays dead pretty easily with some carrots and sticks in the form of guaranteed capital quotas for women, minority, and handicapped owned commercial organizations.
The basic, and perhaps only way, that Alderman retain their seats is through the TIFs the Mayor's office creates. It forces them to play ball with the Mayor's initiatives and hope they score just enough runs for their campaign supporters to keep their seats and improve their wards at a trickle pace.
Yesterday the City Council pass the TIF Sunlight Ordinance 48-0. Just a few weeks ago the same ordinance was brought before the council for a vote and they deferred. They tabled the motion.
What changed?
The SEIU-Illinois commissioned a poll. They released the data on the one blog they sponsor. They organized a demonstration in Daley Plaza pushing the poll data.
Really, what else happened in that few week time period? Perhaps the most well known elected TIF critic Quigley was elected? We learned a little more about the Republic Windows & Doors TIF debacle, but really no more than what we knew before the same ordinance last came up for a vote.
ZC
· 8 months ago
Brennan,
The other thing that changed is that people continued to be pissed about the parking meters. I think that was much more significant than SEIU-Illinois.
I agree with you however about taking this poll with a grain of salt unless the precise questions, the question ordering and the crosstabs are made public.
When a poll is sponsored by a special interest group, the results magically reflect the expectation of the special interest group.
To me it is just an advertisement since we do not know the questions or the raw numbers of the answers.
Lots of smoke, but no certainty of a fire for the Daley administration.
Not Quite Broke, But Plenty An
· 8 months ago
The poll is tainted by virtue of it having been commissioned by SEIU.
There is no overestimating the disdain felt for Daley by blacks and whites in Chicago. Following the demise of HDO, the Hispanics may join that list, too.
Daley has always been good at playing one side off the other, but that only works for so long. Many commentators focus on the 71% of the vote he received two years ago, but they shouldn't overlook that only 17.5% of all registered voters cast ballots for Daley.
It has long been observed that blacks in Chicago could elect another mayor if only they'd turn out and vote, which they haven't done since Harold Washington. The only other time they came together as a voting bloc was, of course, for Barack Obama as president.
But Daley was successful in co-opting sufficient numbers of black "leaders" that they never rallied their followers to support an opposition candidate.
In the meantime, Daley kept the support of whites by beautifying the city, maintaining its infrastructure, putting a lid on crime, keeping taxes relatively reasonable, and keeping corruption from boiling over to the point of flagrancy.
Today, blacks no longer believe a word out of Daley's mouth, Jesse Jackson Sr's mouth, nor Jesse Jackson Jr's mouth. Rather than rally in protest, they simply stay home on Election Day.
White property owners who don't work for the city also have abandoned Daley. He lost his credibility when corruption exploded, infrastructure collapsed, public school kids started getting shot, and taxes soared. All the while he purports to wash his hands of all responsibility and pleads poor mouth or ignorance. Plus, whites are still angry he inflicted the whole John Stroger/Todd Stroger debacle on the electorate.
And with Al Sanchez and the HDO abandoned, Latinos don't trust him either.
All of this is compounded by the tanked economy and Daley's unrelenting arrogance.
He has, quite literally, lost the consent of the governed.
What boggles the mind is how tone-deaf the City Council is right now. Like the city's registered black voters, they could snatch the city out of Daley's grasp if only they'd stop letting themselves be co-opted by the crumbs he and Ed Burke occasionally toss their way.
Ghost
· 8 months ago
Word, I beleive Rod's impeachment bars him from elected office in Illinois.
Lakefront Liberal
· 8 months ago
Campaigns commission polls which they release through their campaigns (sometimes on their campaign-sponsored blog) along with talking points favorable to their goal (which is to elet their candidate) all the time and no one asks about the "ethical boundaries". SEIU is bascially an ongoing campaign on behalf of their members/organizational goals. They commissioned a poll, they released it via a blog they sponsor in a post that explicity discloses this relationship (in case anyone didn't already know), and they included talking points favorable to their point of view. This is exactly what campaigns do. Where is the problem?
Acutally, in answer to my own question, I think the main problem is that we have such a moribund political scene in this state, one that is dominated by the same corrupt clans decade after decade with barely a peep to be said about it, that when someone DOES mount an opposition it is such a shock we think they must be doing something bad.
I have had the experience, and I know others have as well, of being told I am "threatening" or "blackmailing" an elected official when I tell them that if they don't vote a certain way I will work on the campaign of any opponent that will vote the way I want in the next election. This is not blackmail, it is democracy! But they are so un-used to being challenged or even questioned in anyway that they are certain that you are doing something nefarious.
So no, I don't see a conspiracy or an ethical problem, I see a smart campaign operation on behalf of SEIU.
wordslinger
· 8 months ago
Ghost, you're right, I thought it was state office.
Anonymous in Chicago
· 8 months ago
SEIU may have commissioned the poll but it was conducted by one of the very top Democratic polling firms in the country.
It makes sense. Voters have been willing to overlook corruption, service problems, higher taxes and fees--as long as the economy was humming along and their home values and incomes were rising.
Now that the economy has soured, and people are feeling the pinch, they're far less forgiving.
BannedForLife
· 8 months ago
"The basic, and perhaps only way, that Alderman retain their seats is through the TIFs the Mayor’s office creates."
A portion of every TIF dollar expended by the City makes its way into aldermanic campaign coffers. But a much more significant incumbency tool for aldermen is the good old fashioned traditional selling of zoning changes.
HV in HP
· 8 months ago
RMD would have to be caught with a live boy or a dead girl in order to lose reelection.
Brennan
· 8 months ago
Lakefront Liberal: Would you provide an assist and make a formal request to the SEIU-Illinois to publicly disclose the full raw data of the poll they commissioned?
Disclosure in support of fostering the public discourse appears to me to present the ideal pivot in raising awareness in public opinion and creating a healthy environment for discussing our political system.
Take It Easy
· 8 months ago
Fedup Dem . . . Rahm Emanuel . . . are you serious?
That guy stutters almost as badly as Daley.
Al Swearengen
· 8 months ago
Lakefront Liberal – You are absolutely right that that there is no “ethical problem†at play here. SEIU or any other special interest group has the right to disseminate whatever they want. Just as I have the right to not believe a word of it.
The Doc
· 8 months ago
Rahm Emanuel is a well-documented product off the Machine assembly line. There's perhaps no one less likely to mount a mayoral challenge to Daley.
Yellow Dog Democrat
· 8 months ago
=== No polls sponsored by SEIU about Daley is going to be honest. ===
et al:
Don't blame the messenger. You think the poll is cooked? Show us the flaw, or conduct your own poll.
Atleast give us some qualitative reason why you think more than 41% of Chicagoans SHOULD think that Daley is doing a good job or more than 34% SHOULD think the city is headed in the right direction.
Frankly, I think Daley should be thrilled that 2 in 5 Chicagoans think he's doing a good job, especially when only 1 in 3 think the city is headed in the right direction.
Lost in this analysis is the fact that many people are relatively new to the city. If you've only been following Daley for the last 10 years, and don't remember what Chicago was like when he took over, you have a very different opinion.
I'm guessing that's why he does better among 18-44 y.o.'s (born here) and 60+ (lived whole life here) than middle-aged folks.
That crosstab would have been useful.
As for the political implications:
Its simply too early to tell. Getting rid of Daley always seems like a great idea to about 40% of voters, until they really start examining the alternative.
But if Daley isn't freaked out by the lack of support among seniors, he should be.
As for the City Council polling, that number is pretty useless. Without knowing specific ward data (the sample size is too small for that) or atleast regional crosstabs, and how voters feel about their own alderman, it doesn't tell us much about 2011, except that any tools in the toolbox shouldn't be counting on Daley's coattails to carry them.
Yellow Dog Democrat
· 8 months ago
P.S. If you want to ignore the SEIU poll, go ahead and do so: ignorance is bliss.
But if you want the rest of us to ignore it, the Daley lovers should just chip in $500 a piece and commission your own poll.
I look forward to seeing the results.
JonShibleyFan
· 8 months ago
Folks, Rahm and Daley are allies. Geez, straighten your politics out.
The weighting strikes me as a bit hinky. The black vs white figure isn't so outrageous - the actual population numbers are close to even, though while white voters give him similarly bad numbers, don't expect white ethnics to vote in droves for a black progressive. That just isn't all that likely.
The number of 18-44 voters strikes me as disproportionately high --Obama effect or not.
But none of this makes me too quick to outright dismiss the numbers. The guy's been getting absolutely pummeled in the press, and the economy, locally and nationwide, is in the crapper.
That said, I'd still lay odds in his favor if he decides to make another go at it.
I think his decision will be made largely based on; 1) the IOC decision, and 2) Maggie's health outlook (and hey, classy timing on the release of these numbers, BTW!).
Rich Miller
· 8 months ago
Every time we run a poll, some wiseacre just has to say "Well, I don't believe it because..."
This is a professional pollster, people. Take a breath.
Anonymous45
· 8 months ago
I agree with JSF: if the Olympics go elsewhere, RMD has little to look forward to, and if the Mrs. health has taken a turn for the worse, he is going to take the time to be there for her...that said, I still can't think of a viable candidate that will run against him, except Vallas running as a Republican...
Cosmic Charlie
· 8 months ago
I believe the poll is accurate or at least in the ball park. People are angry right now on many levels and any sitting office holder is gonna feel it to some degree or another. I do not, however, believe that it means the Mayor is vulnerable. The lack of a strong opponent, the inability of the hispanic and african-american communities to unite politically, and the strong support the Mayor has in the business community all make Daley nearly invincible. SEIU seems to be trying to rattle the Mayor's cage a little bit to make him deal with them as a real player in the management of the City. But my guess is this will add up to nada and the Mayor will continue to ignore them and easily win reelection if he choses to run.
IrishPirate
· 8 months ago
I loathe Daley and his Bubbly Creek mercury addled brain. I personally find him to be the most overrated Mayor in America.
That being said you can't beat SOMEBODY with nobody.
Now Barack Obama could have run and beat the Mayor, but he seems happy in lesser office. So that leaves.........?
Perhaps Roland Burris will run in 2011 after he gets trounced in the 2010 primary. Ray Wardingly, the actual clown from the 19th Ward, could run if he is still alive. Clown V Clown.
There ain't nobody else who could take on "da mare". Jesse Junior has his own problems and will have little appeal outside a segment of the black community.
Perhaps Joe Moore from Rogers Park could run a campaign to save the poultry.
disgusted
· 8 months ago
Daley is not without his faults, but chicago is one of the most livable cities in the world and visitors remark about this a lot downtown...try living in St Louis or Detroit or Philly for a while...there is a huge difference in overall cleanliness, open space & the lake, great museums and sports facilities, % young professionals, restaurants and blues clubs...... Chicago is my kind of town and Daley has had just something to do with that. Is there another city you would rather live in?
JonShibleyFan
· 8 months ago
===Every time we run a poll,...===
I wasn't intending to come off as questioning the poll. I'm typically one of the first to rhetorically roll my eyes at people who do.
I'll be interested to see the results as they release more.
dan l
· 8 months ago
Probably has something to do with the fact that we've got a variety of fiscal issues, meanwhile Richy is busy planning one big expensive party in 2016. It makes him seem a little.....aloof.
I think the average person gets that we shouldn't let our current situation dictate the Olympics thing (or at least, would be willing to admit that our situation today is not indicative of what our situation will be in 2016) but in popular perception, that logic isn't being executed.
Phineas J. Whoopee
· 8 months ago
I am surprised Daley's approval numbers are as high as they are. I really don't know anyone who likes the guy anymore.
I was by the 6 corners shopping area on the Northwest side a few weeks back and couldn't believe how dilapidated it was with virtually every other store boarded up. To quadruple the cost to park on the street in this area is fatal. This parking meter fiasco will cripple this city for a hundred years.
The list from The Doc at 9:19 is quite accurate. Someone like Paul Vallas could mount a strong campaign.
fed up
· 8 months ago
Maybe the citizens are getting wise that the reason Daley keeps raising taxs and cutting city services is that he shifted such a huge portion of the property tax moneis to TIF funds for his developer friends. People are begining to realize in Chicago we are paying more for less police.fire, snow removal pothole repairs and schools because Daley is using the money that is supposed to pay for those services(property Taxs) and giving it to his developer friends to get rich. Daley and his rubber stamp city council need to go.
fed up
· 8 months ago
Rich this is the second poll and story about SEIU you have run since SEIU became an advertiser. Interesting
Rich Miller
· 8 months ago
===Interesting===
Bite me.
dan l
· 8 months ago
===== Maybe the citizens are getting wise that the reason Daley keeps raising taxs and cutting city services is that he shifted such a huge portion of the property tax moneis to TIF funds for his developer friends. =====
Yeah. Because the Wilson Yard Movement has been sooooooo successful.
You guys couldn't even get enough people to oust Schiller, amirite?
Be honest: The only thing those folks have managed to do is wear out the T, I, and F on their keyboards.
ZC
· 8 months ago
I have no problem believing the poll's results, but of course you have to take it with a grain of salt without knowing more about its construction. That's just true of any _one_ poll, whether it's commissioned by pros, or by cranks. Skepticism is always in order. When I see this result replicated by other professional outfits, I'll take it steadily more seriously.
The economy stinks. This is the first really nasty economy Daley has faced since he became Mayor. He's had great political timing to preside over a 90s boom and a '00 housing boom, with mild recessions inbetween. That general economic climate always padded his numbers up, is my bet. He's benefited from a lot of factors that he never caused.
Now it looks like he might get shelled for a lot of reasons but including things outside his control. Welcome to politics.
Indpendent
· 8 months ago
People were much more tolerant of Daley's corruption and waste when the economy was booming. They had money in their pockets and did not care that Daley's family and friends always got a grossly disproportionate share of the pie. Now people are squeezed between frozen salaries (if they're lucky) and all sorts of rising city fees. Stories of City Hall scandal and waste that used to be quickly forgotten now raise their ire. Even arcane issues like TIFs are coming under the magnifying glass.
I don't see any other vision or even a simple Plan B from Daley outside of winning the 2016 Olympics. He is obsessed with winning them as he believes they are a panacea for Chicago's ills. If he does not get his Olympics I think he will be personally devastated and call it quits in 2011.
All Comments
His numbers might end up looking weak against an unspecified generic opponent, but would probably look much greater against any specific person who might step forward to challenge.
People are unhappy, and that translates to poor general numbers for the people in office. But elections are contests between two (or more) real people, and the challengers will all have heir own baggage.
Why are chicagoans disatisfied; and should the Mayor stop saying to them, let them eat cake.
Still, you can't beat somebody with nobody. At this point, I think only Fitz could pry Daley out of office against his will.
What's interesting from the survey responses is that it appears people don't know or have forgotten that Chicago is a Strong Council/Weak Mayor system. They can already tell him what to do and how to collect and spend the money. They've just chosen not to do so.
Those are the benefits of an absurdly large city council and vacancy appointment power, among other things.
Anon, that argument would've flown several years back, but certainly not anymore. Not sure what you consider "getting things done" and "moving the city forward".
I see a demoralized police force, endemic fraud in city hiring practices, crumbling streets and mass transit, a failing school system, a multimillion dollar budget deficit, a litany of oppressive fines, fees, & taxes, hocking major city assets for pennies on the dollar, and a dangerous Olympic obsession.
So tell me again how he's moving the city forward and getting things done?
What about block 37 and the State Street subway station? Why dump all that money there and not distribute it throughout the ancient CTA system?
What about crowding in Latino Chicago Public Schools? The Huberman appointment?
Demographics may be against Daley in the next election, but as others have mentioned, who can best him?
Wumpus, that's occurred to me, as well. At this point, who can say what's too crazy?
I think I'm going to barf. God I hate that over used tired word. Progressive. It's 2009.
Either way, these numbers, while not good, and the condition of Chicago while also being not good, hopefully is a sign that people are starting to wise up about the thoroughly corrupt and inept government that is in place in the city. But as I like to say..."Expect the worst, Hope for the best".
The SEIU-Illinois council paid for this poll. The SEIU-Illinois council has used the poll data to stage a demonstration in Daley Plaza. The SEIU-Illinois council is the sole sponsor of the Progress Illinois blog. The SEIU-Illinois commissioned a Democratic polling outfit to conduct the poll.
1) Please ask the SEIU to release ALL the raw data for this poll.
2) Is anyone else concerned about the ethical boundaries the SEIU and Progress Illinois tip toe along to get their message out?
Call me crazy, but the SEIU-Illinois council has paid for a poll and the reporting outfit that is the only press source that has seen the raw data and these concerns are raised generically in only one reader reply thus far.
Do the research? Might be the same polling outfit. Might even be paid by the SEIU-Illinois. The SEIU-Illinois was and is a major supporter of Governor Blagojevich and perhaps most of the former Governor's ambitious healthcare increases without raising income taxes. Without their support his 2006 re-election caucus looks pretty weak.
You are dead on about this. Progress Illinois’ status as a puppet state for SEIU really doesn’t matter much, as the blogosphere is not where the rest of America lives. Just ask President Dean and Congressman Geoghegan.
And let's not forget that Bennett, Petts is not exactly one of the best polling firms around. Sampling more African-Americans than whites in a poll of all of Chicago? And 500 people is not a big sample at all.
I know SEIU has enjoyed having alderman in satellite republic wards this time around (Fioretti, Dixon, Thompson, etc.) But beating Rich Daley is a whole different story than taking out Madeline Haithcock and Mike Chandler. So for all the glee that the janitors union puts forth on this, they still know in their hearts that Chicagoans still like their Mayor a lot.
About the only way he's getting his measures supported by the City Council is through the trading of racial favors. The Mayor's opposition rolls over and plays dead pretty easily with some carrots and sticks in the form of guaranteed capital quotas for women, minority, and handicapped owned commercial organizations.
The basic, and perhaps only way, that Alderman retain their seats is through the TIFs the Mayor's office creates. It forces them to play ball with the Mayor's initiatives and hope they score just enough runs for their campaign supporters to keep their seats and improve their wards at a trickle pace.
Yesterday the City Council pass the TIF Sunlight Ordinance 48-0. Just a few weeks ago the same ordinance was brought before the council for a vote and they deferred. They tabled the motion.
What changed?
The SEIU-Illinois commissioned a poll. They released the data on the one blog they sponsor. They organized a demonstration in Daley Plaza pushing the poll data.
Really, what else happened in that few week time period? Perhaps the most well known elected TIF critic Quigley was elected? We learned a little more about the Republic Windows & Doors TIF debacle, but really no more than what we knew before the same ordinance last came up for a vote.
The other thing that changed is that people continued to be pissed about the parking meters. I think that was much more significant than SEIU-Illinois.
I agree with you however about taking this poll with a grain of salt unless the precise questions, the question ordering and the crosstabs are made public.
For a primer on fun with public opinion polls, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yhN1IDLQjo
To me it is just an advertisement since we do not know the questions or the raw numbers of the answers.
Lots of smoke, but no certainty of a fire for the Daley administration.
There is no overestimating the disdain felt for Daley by blacks and whites in Chicago. Following the demise of HDO, the Hispanics may join that list, too.
Daley has always been good at playing one side off the other, but that only works for so long. Many commentators focus on the 71% of the vote he received two years ago, but they shouldn't overlook that only 17.5% of all registered voters cast ballots for Daley.
It has long been observed that blacks in Chicago could elect another mayor if only they'd turn out and vote, which they haven't done since Harold Washington. The only other time they came together as a voting bloc was, of course, for Barack Obama as president.
But Daley was successful in co-opting sufficient numbers of black "leaders" that they never rallied their followers to support an opposition candidate.
In the meantime, Daley kept the support of whites by beautifying the city, maintaining its infrastructure, putting a lid on crime, keeping taxes relatively reasonable, and keeping corruption from boiling over to the point of flagrancy.
Today, blacks no longer believe a word out of Daley's mouth, Jesse Jackson Sr's mouth, nor Jesse Jackson Jr's mouth. Rather than rally in protest, they simply stay home on Election Day.
White property owners who don't work for the city also have abandoned Daley. He lost his credibility when corruption exploded, infrastructure collapsed, public school kids started getting shot, and taxes soared. All the while he purports to wash his hands of all responsibility and pleads poor mouth or ignorance. Plus, whites are still angry he inflicted the whole John Stroger/Todd Stroger debacle on the electorate.
And with Al Sanchez and the HDO abandoned, Latinos don't trust him either.
All of this is compounded by the tanked economy and Daley's unrelenting arrogance.
He has, quite literally, lost the consent of the governed.
What boggles the mind is how tone-deaf the City Council is right now. Like the city's registered black voters, they could snatch the city out of Daley's grasp if only they'd stop letting themselves be co-opted by the crumbs he and Ed Burke occasionally toss their way.
Acutally, in answer to my own question, I think the main problem is that we have such a moribund political scene in this state, one that is dominated by the same corrupt clans decade after decade with barely a peep to be said about it, that when someone DOES mount an opposition it is such a shock we think they must be doing something bad.
I have had the experience, and I know others have as well, of being told I am "threatening" or "blackmailing" an elected official when I tell them that if they don't vote a certain way I will work on the campaign of any opponent that will vote the way I want in the next election. This is not blackmail, it is democracy! But they are so un-used to being challenged or even questioned in anyway that they are certain that you are doing something nefarious.
So no, I don't see a conspiracy or an ethical problem, I see a smart campaign operation on behalf of SEIU.
It makes sense. Voters have been willing to overlook corruption, service problems, higher taxes and fees--as long as the economy was humming along and their home values and incomes were rising.
Now that the economy has soured, and people are feeling the pinch, they're far less forgiving.
A portion of every TIF dollar expended by the City makes its way into aldermanic campaign coffers. But a much more significant incumbency tool for aldermen is the good old fashioned traditional selling of zoning changes.
Disclosure in support of fostering the public discourse appears to me to present the ideal pivot in raising awareness in public opinion and creating a healthy environment for discussing our political system.
That guy stutters almost as badly as Daley.
You are absolutely right that that there is no “ethical problem†at play here. SEIU or any other special interest group has the right to disseminate whatever they want. Just as I have the right to not believe a word of it.
et al:
Don't blame the messenger. You think the poll is cooked? Show us the flaw, or conduct your own poll.
Atleast give us some qualitative reason why you think more than 41% of Chicagoans SHOULD think that Daley is doing a good job or more than 34% SHOULD think the city is headed in the right direction.
Frankly, I think Daley should be thrilled that 2 in 5 Chicagoans think he's doing a good job, especially when only 1 in 3 think the city is headed in the right direction.
Lost in this analysis is the fact that many people are relatively new to the city. If you've only been following Daley for the last 10 years, and don't remember what Chicago was like when he took over, you have a very different opinion.
I'm guessing that's why he does better among 18-44 y.o.'s (born here) and 60+ (lived whole life here) than middle-aged folks.
That crosstab would have been useful.
As for the political implications:
Its simply too early to tell. Getting rid of Daley always seems like a great idea to about 40% of voters, until they really start examining the alternative.
But if Daley isn't freaked out by the lack of support among seniors, he should be.
As for the City Council polling, that number is pretty useless. Without knowing specific ward data (the sample size is too small for that) or atleast regional crosstabs, and how voters feel about their own alderman, it doesn't tell us much about 2011, except that any tools in the toolbox shouldn't be counting on Daley's coattails to carry them.
But if you want the rest of us to ignore it, the Daley lovers should just chip in $500 a piece and commission your own poll.
I look forward to seeing the results.
The weighting strikes me as a bit hinky. The black vs white figure isn't so outrageous - the actual population numbers are close to even, though while white voters give him similarly bad numbers, don't expect white ethnics to vote in droves for a black progressive. That just isn't all that likely.
The number of 18-44 voters strikes me as disproportionately high --Obama effect or not.
But none of this makes me too quick to outright dismiss the numbers. The guy's been getting absolutely pummeled in the press, and the economy, locally and nationwide, is in the crapper.
That said, I'd still lay odds in his favor if he decides to make another go at it.
I think his decision will be made largely based on; 1) the IOC decision, and 2) Maggie's health outlook (and hey, classy timing on the release of these numbers, BTW!).
This is a professional pollster, people. Take a breath.
That being said you can't beat SOMEBODY with nobody.
Now Barack Obama could have run and beat the Mayor, but he seems happy in lesser office. So that leaves.........?
Perhaps Roland Burris will run in 2011 after he gets trounced in the 2010 primary. Ray Wardingly, the actual clown from the 19th Ward, could run if he is still alive. Clown V Clown.
There ain't nobody else who could take on "da mare". Jesse Junior has his own problems and will have little appeal outside a segment of the black community.
Perhaps Joe Moore from Rogers Park could run a campaign to save the poultry.
I wasn't intending to come off as questioning the poll. I'm typically one of the first to rhetorically roll my eyes at people who do.
I'll be interested to see the results as they release more.
I think the average person gets that we shouldn't let our current situation dictate the Olympics thing (or at least, would be willing to admit that our situation today is not indicative of what our situation will be in 2016) but in popular perception, that logic isn't being executed.
I was by the 6 corners shopping area on the Northwest side a few weeks back and couldn't believe how dilapidated it was with virtually every other store boarded up. To quadruple the cost to park on the street in this area is fatal. This parking meter fiasco will cripple this city for a hundred years.
The list from The Doc at 9:19 is quite accurate. Someone like Paul Vallas could mount a strong campaign.
Bite me.
Maybe the citizens are getting wise that the reason Daley keeps raising taxs and cutting city services is that he shifted such a huge portion of the property tax moneis to TIF funds for his developer friends.
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Not a chance. Nobody cares.
http://www.fixwilsonyard.org/
You guys couldn't even get enough people to oust Schiller, amirite?
Be honest: The only thing those folks have managed to do is wear out the T, I, and F on their keyboards.
The economy stinks. This is the first really nasty economy Daley has faced since he became Mayor. He's had great political timing to preside over a 90s boom and a '00 housing boom, with mild recessions inbetween. That general economic climate always padded his numbers up, is my bet. He's benefited from a lot of factors that he never caused.
Now it looks like he might get shelled for a lot of reasons but including things outside his control. Welcome to politics.
I don't see any other vision or even a simple Plan B from Daley outside of winning the 2016 Olympics. He is obsessed with winning them as he believes they are a panacea for Chicago's ills. If he does not get his Olympics I think he will be personally devastated and call it quits in 2011.