CapitolFax.com - Latest Comments in Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:02:26 -0000

"Can someone please explain to me how Rahm Emanuel who ran the best democratic congressional campaign in a generation and David Axelrod who ran an $800 million enterprise that beat the clintons and the gop, will lose this seat to a party that canâ€™t gain traction against a former Governor with a 7% approval rating? "

Two reasons:

1) To quote the West Wing, "It helps when you cook with the right ingredients". Rahm had a national anti-Republican wave and dozens of compelling candidates, Ax had Barack Obama. Ain't none of the possible Democratic nominees another Obama, and I doubt there's going to be another wave.

2) Distraction. Rahm and Ax are both going to be focused on keeping the Obama White House strong, and if they take their eyes off of that, it's only going to be to preserve the Democratic Congressional majorities, not to focus on a single Senate Seat (unless, of course, that seat becomes integral to holding on to the majorities, but with a 9-seat advantage and four-plus Republican retirements, that's not really likely).

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:57:15 -0000

"I defy anyone to raise the money Cong. Kirk will raise. "

You really think an IL Dem is gonna get outspent in the age of Obama?

Look, Kirk is still the front runner in my mind, but the more people talk him up in reaction to this poll, the more desperate it seems.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Shore — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:56:08 -0000

Can someone please explain to me how Rahm Emanuel who ran the best democratic congressional campaign in a generation and David Axelrod who ran an $800 million enterprise that beat the clintons and the gop, will lose this seat to a party that can't gain traction against a former Governor with a 7% approval rating?

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:50:27 -0000

"Actually, no. The GA just did what the voters were unwilling to do in 2006. "

Fair enough- I was kinda just being snide.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

downstater — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:41:21 -0000

I hope the dems run with Burris. He is definatelly beatable by someone as moderate as Kirk. I love the GOP's chances. Remember history of mid-term elections for new Presidents. If economy is still in the dumper Kirk romps. Well know prognosticator Charlie Cook rates it a toss-up and he's a lot less partisan than Kos.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Rich Miller — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:40:17 -0000

===Well, they just impeached him, for one thing. ===

Actually, no. The GA just did what the voters were unwilling to do in 2006.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Rich Miller — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:39:08 -0000

===Another reason not to jump on these numbers===

Look, we run quite a few candidate-sponsored polls here. They're all identified. But R2K is a decent outfit, and Kirk's own people were worried sick the week before the election. It wasn't just R2K that showed serious movement by the Democrat there. That election was won in the last weekend.

So, if you're suggesting that the poll is pure propaganda, I would suggest you reconsider.

To this point, every objection to other numbers on this poll, trends, etc. have been rebutted, even refuted. Simple partisan spins are also easily rebutted by calling them out for what they are.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

The Pug is on the Prowl — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:36:18 -0000

Yea, this whole thing seems a bit odd. I defy anyone to raise the money Cong. Kirk will raise. Additionally if elections are about message and candidate, his current district is a pretty good cross-section of the bulk of the voters in Illinois, and he seems to be pretty well liked. And if that's not enough, the Daily KOS can't even manipulate their numbers enough to do damage to Mark Kirk. Mark Kirk represents everything that is right about politics in this country...PLEASE RUN!!!

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:35:25 -0000

"The entire state knew the Gov was corrupt and what did they do about it? "

Well, they just impeached him, for one thing.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:32:25 -0000

"Forgive me for having a difficult time believing anything from DailyKos."

Irrelevant, as these numbers are from R2K, but okay, you're forgiven.

"The name recognition advantage for Kirk over Burris is tough to buy because Burris has run statewide at least 4 times AND was just the lead story for a week in the NATIONAL news."

Burris hasn't held office for over a decade. Kirk had been all over Chicago media since August. And Burris' cross currents- no personal corruption, but Blago ties- could push a lot of people into "no opinion" territory.

"Not sure the Dems should be excited to have Kirk only 6-8% behind all the dem hopefuls at this point. "

Neither am I, but given how many people are trying to spin these numbers and sing the praises of Mark Kirk, it's clear the Republicans aren't seeing much hope here, either (Especially if their number one issue is completely hypothetical tax hikes).

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Gob Bluth — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:25:19 -0000

I'm sorry, but these numbers seem a bit fishy and in some instances plain over the top. I know we all want to jump all over them and make prognostications about what they mean, but this is much a do about nothing IMHO.

Another reason not to jump on these numbers is the plain and undeniable fact that this poll was sponsored by the Daily Kos (and yes, the Daily Kos was the sponsor of the Kirk poll that had him losing by 6 to Dan Seals, which then led to some arm-chair-quarterbacks on this blog to pronounce Kirk all but dead).
C'mon people, the Daily Kos folks only get out of bed each morning b/c they love bashing the GOP. They cannot be seen as a independent actor and thus any numbers will be viewed as partisan.

My take, If I were Kirk, I'd look at the this poll and take stock in the fact that the Daily Kos and the Dems are already worried. They are trying to set the stage for early campaign funding calls that have already started with an eye on this race.

If Kirk enters the race and is pitted against any Dems mentioned in the poll and only had to make up a 4-6 points, I'd put my money on him to beat any of the them.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Bri — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:20:13 -0000

Forgive me for having a difficult time believing anything from DailyKos. If it were up to them, we'd have Cong. Laesch.
The name recognition advantage for Kirk over Burris is tough to buy because Burris has run statewide at least 4 times AND was just the lead story for a week in the NATIONAL news.

Kirk has demonstrated that he can win decisively in tough years and raise lots of money. He will play well in the suburbs- the place where any successful Republican must perform well. Finally, the media likes him and he is not at all tainted, unlike Alexi or Burris.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

10th Indy — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:59:17 -0000

Not sure the Dems should be excited to have Kirk only 6-8% behind all the dem hopefuls at this point. Kirk is proven campaigner who can rake in cash and will be able to hit dems on tax increases that are surely coming, a worsening illinois economy and the Blago trial.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

SearsTower — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:45:57 -0000

Remember, Schakowsky's husband was convicted of two federal felonies and one of the felonies was for avoiding income tax on a tax return cosigned by the Congresswoman herself. Rahm moved against her decisively when she ran for congressional leadership and could be counted on to sink her in the national press if she was in danger of becoming a fatally wounded nominee.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

Adam Smith — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:39:20 -0000

Kos doesn't do anything without a partisan purpose. He and his cohorts know that this seat is in play and they would prefer to see a weaker candidate in the race on the GOP side.

Simply put, numbers at this point are useless except for political junkies.

Here are a couple of facts:

Burris is a weak candidate. That's not to say he can't win a primary or the general.

Kirk is a strong candidate. It's an uphill climb for any "R" but he is battle-tested, can raise tons of $$$ and can appeal to moderate suburbanites.

The right wing nuts hate Kirk and the Dems are scared of him. Two things that indicate how strong he looks.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

get real — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:37:44 -0000

Voter USA: what are the Blagojevich/Burris/ILL DEM ideas and leadership? The entire state knew the Gov was corrupt and what did they do about it?

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

VoterUSA — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:25:10 -0000

There is no way Illinois is going GOP in 2010... The GOP has no ideas or leadership, and If Obama does good between now and then it won't even be close.

GOP = Grand ol Party, and that is what people see.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:24:49 -0000

"More people have an opinion about Kirk than do Burris? "

I think that's possible. Kirk was ubiquitous in the Chicago media market during the campaign (and has done a decent job staying visible since then, too), while Burris hadn't been heard from in a decade and may have competing impulses (Blago appointment vs. no personal corruption) pushing respondents away from both a positive and negative opinion.

"Plus, didnâ€™t Kos do a whole bunch of polls about Kirk that were way off?"

No, Kos didn't do any polls. R2K did a poll that had Seals in the lead (as did SUSA), but they also did a poll that had Kirk in the lead.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

get real — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:16:47 -0000

when was the last time Roland Burris actually won anything? 15 years ago... PLEASE... Rod Blagojevich's senate appointee will be going somewhere in 2010, but it won't be back to his pay to play Senate gig.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

R_K — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:16:10 -0000

I'm a little skeptical about those numbers. More people have an opinion about Kirk than do Burris? Plus, didn't Kos do a whole bunch of polls about Kirk that were way off? I have to wonder whether this is just a ploy to scare off strong Republicans. Given the source, I wouldn't be surprised.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:10:25 -0000

"Based on DailyKosâ€™ polls just this Septenber and October that had Congressman Kirk losing re-election"

Just to clarify (I think my above post was a little obtuse) this isn't true, the R2K September poll showed Kirk ahead.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

colby — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:07:41 -0000

"I am not sure how anyone, Dem, Republican, or Indy believes anything these people print. They are strictly propaganda "

They had polls that showed Kirk winning, too, and other polling outfits (SUSA, for one) showed Seals taking it, too.

Also, DKos didn't "do" this poll or any other- R2k did, and they're fairly well-respected, and predictive often enough.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

anon — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:06:54 -0000

I hope their track record of inaccuracy continues. Based on DailyKos' polls just this Septenber and October that had Congressman Kirk losing re-election to Dan Seals, I don't see how anyone could take them seriously. I am actually encouraged by their misinformation propaganda campaign.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

VoterUSA — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:04:49 -0000

Whatever you want to say about Burris, he is clean and has won 4 state wide races. I'm sure Burris will do a good job as Senator, and win in 2010.

Re: Poll: Repubs trailing Dems in US Senate race

get real — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 16:01:00 -0000

all the "polls" that Daily Kos has done with Mark Kirk have been wrong. They showed Mark Kirk losing to Dan Seals and instead Kirk won huge. Based on this, it looks like Mark Kirk will be the next senator for the State of Illinois.

I am not sure how anyone, Dem, Republican, or Indy believes anything these people print. They are strictly propaganda