CapitolFax.com - Latest Comments in Poll stories

Re: Poll stories

Agapios — Thu, 17 May 2007 17:33:57 -0000

Cool.

Re: Poll stories

Scott Fawell's Cellmate — Wed, 01 Nov 2006 15:49:58 -0000

T.J. at 4:42 a.m.

Keyes got 28% of the vote, Topinka is polling at 29%. No one is saying Keyes polled at anything, just making the point Topinka is swirling down the drain toward Illinois-tourist Alan Keyes numbers.

Re: Poll stories

T.J. — Wed, 01 Nov 2006 05:42:14 -0000

Keyes got 28%.

Keyes polled nowhere near 28% until Election Day.

Re: Poll stories

Casey Jones — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 19:59:46 -0000

According to the Tribune poll, thirty-two percent of voters thought Blagojevich would do a better job of cleaning up government corruption, compared to 27 percent for Topinka. Huh? The man who brought us federal investigations for "endemic hiring fraud", "pay-for-play on steroids" and $1500 birthtism checks from the husbands of job seekers is viewed by nearly 1/3 of those polled as being best able to clean up government corruption?!?!? Can he recognize it? Certainly. But clean it up? The only way he's going to manage that is to be indicted along with his whole inner circle...

I honestly don't know whether to lose faith in polls or the voters of Illinois.

Re: Poll stories

Angie — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 18:19:01 -0000

Not to try to continue the poll argument, but doesn't it sort of depend on what type of poll is conducted? There are scientific polls and then very badly structured ones.

The scientific ones are more accurate precisely because they are scientific. There are lots of bogus types of polls, though.

I'm taking a pol-sci class, and the use of "push polls" was a topic that came up. Our instructor disliked them so much that when the types of polls were listed on the Powerpoint slide, that one was spelled completely backwards on purpose, just because it is a backwards and unscientific way to do a poll.

So, if anyone has heard of baloney polls, they are probably wary of all polls, not realizing that some are better conducted than others.

For a fun thread topic, though, Rich should run a contest to see what types of obnoxious questions could be used in push polls for our Illinois candidates. I'll bet they'd sound identical with both mainstream candidates. Something like, "Did you realize that (insert any candidate here) received contributions from (insert name of every individual who currently has a letter of the alphabet attached to them in the unsealed indictments that just came down)?

Re: Poll stories

Bubs — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:59:33 -0000

P.S. When I say "both sides," I meant Republicans and Democrats in general. It appears to me that Stroger is the only one lying in his race.

Re: Poll stories

Rich Miller — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:57:25 -0000

SI, your opinion is not based on any actual FACTS. Again, move on or move out. I have to tell you this every few months and I won't do it again. Go start a blog for people who think pollsters are voodoo priests.

Re: Poll stories

Bubs — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:57:17 -0000

Why this argument? It's down to six days. I personally think the Trib poll is defective, for the reasons I noted above (poor sampling), but all the cards will be turned over soon enough.

I'm more concerned about the outright lying in TV attack ads, on both sides. Welcome to Illinois!

Re: Poll stories

Southern Illinoisian — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:53:36 -0000

Rich, I'm sorry, but you opened the thread for debate. I'm trying to be civil, but voice my opinion. I know you don't share it.

Re: Poll stories

Southern Illinoisian — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:49:58 -0000

Sango Dem,

With all due respect, if you're doing "targeted calling to low-income households", how the heck do you know anything about calling affluent households?

While affluent households certainly all HAVE phones, they also have the means to identify and REJECT calls. And, most are busy enough (that's how they get affluent in the first place) that they choose to ignore nuisance calls, which include phone polls.

And, almost all lower-income households DO HAVE phones. I'd also challenge the number of "lower-income" households, given that the median income for a family of four in Illinois is now over $72,000/year.

Lastly, you are correct that young people tend to vote Democrat. That's because they haven't gained the wisdom that comes with age. Also, they tend to talk loudly, but sleep in on election day.

Re: Poll stories

Rich Miller — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:48:27 -0000

"Southern Illinoisan," if you want to criticize individual polls, be my guest. But, please, polling is a long established science. It's not 100 percent acccurate and practitioners don't claim it to be.

There have always been doubters. Pollsters once walked door to door. That's where the phrase "in the field" comes from. When some pollsters started using telephones, the old timers went ballistic. Phone polling couldn't be accurate, they bellowed. But it mostly was. And a lot cheaper and more timely than door-to-door polls.

I'm tired of these stupid arguments about whether all polls are worthless. Move on or move out, please. We all have better things to do than educate you or read your education. The world is round and polling is mostly accurate when done properly.

Re: Poll stories

doubtful — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 16:26:44 -0000

"Very creative, slamming a generalization with another generalization." -Southern Illinoisian

Actually, my whole point was anyone could fabricate generalizations to prove their point. I was just riffing hypotheticals contrary to your original assumption, with, I might add, the exact same amount of factual, supporting evidence as you gave.

"I suppose YOU answer pollsters that call from unidentified toll-free numbers at dinner time. Now THEREÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s a minority position." -Southern Illinoisian

I have answered polls, what's your point?

"Also, if you think of a generalization that supports the opposing viewpoint that Democrat voters are under-represented in phone polls, then share it. IÃ¢â‚¬â„¢d love to dissect that logic." -Southern Illinoisian

Um, I wasn't suggesting "Democrat" (actually it's Democratic) voters were under represented. I was suggesting that you gave no evidence to support your claims that affluence equates to conservative tendencies and an aversion to answering polls. It was just a self-serving assumption.

You also don't really say how much they are under reported. What percentage of the population is "affluent?" If it's a small percentage, like 1% - 3%, then how much does under reporting them really affect the outcome of the poll? Isn't that what the MOE is accounting for?

"Most affluent, intelligent, people recognize that there is only one poll that matters, and thatÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s next Tuesday. All the others are wishful thinking." -Southern Illinoisian

Everyone knows that's the only poll that counts. It's Republicans who are engaged in wishful thinking, though, if they don't lend credence to the overwhelming amount of polls that show they are no longer in the good graces of the American people.

Re: Poll stories

Bubs — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 15:44:35 -0000

The Peraica campaign is noting that in the Tribune poll, of the 484 Cook County voters the pollster says he polled, only 46 were Republicans, less than 10%, and far less than the actual demographic countywide. By contrast, 276 of those 484 voters were Democrats - 57 percent.

I don't claim to know anything like enough about polling to say things definitively, but if that's true the Trib poll does look pretty bogus as to Peraica-Stroger.

Of course, people seeing the headline won't know it.

Re: Poll stories

Sango Dem — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 14:47:06 -0000

Southern Illinoisan, the affluent are not the only ones likely to be skipped by phone polls. An increasing number of young people only use cell phones, which are unlikely to be polled, and the young do vote more Democratic. Also, a significant number of the working poor either don't have a home phone or have their phone temporarily disconnected at any given time, which means they won't be called. As someone who has done targeted calling to low income households, I can tell you that they are harder to reach than the wealthy.

Re: Poll stories

Tessa — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 14:39:53 -0000

God, how I hate polls. In the end, these numbers won't mean a darned thing. The only ones that will matter are the ones next Tuesday night after the polling places across the state close and they count the votes. I just hope more than 25% of the eligible people in this state vote.

Re: Poll stories

Southern Illinoisian — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:54:28 -0000

Doubtful,

Very creative, slamming a generalization with another generalization. Of course the "have-nots" outnumber the "haves", although, due to the Bush economy (since the MSM gives no credit), the ratio of "haves" is increasing.

Regardless, my point regarding phone polls is still valid.

I suppose YOU answer pollsters that call from unidentified toll-free numbers at dinner time. Now THERE's a minority position.

Also, if you think of a generalization that supports the opposing viewpoint that Democrat voters are under-represented in phone polls, then share it. I'd love to dissect that logic.

Most affluent, intelligent, people recognize that there is only one poll that matters, and that's next Tuesday. All the others are wishful thinking.

Re: Poll stories

Polls are voodoo — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:53:48 -0000

Looks like Dewey is gonna stomp Truman for sure, yep.

I don't believe any poll that uses such tiny samples as most of these do. Too easy to get the result you want instead of the truth.

Re: Poll stories

Way Northsider — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:47:55 -0000

The more one knows about Peraica, the less one likes him. Stroger is the lesser of two evils.

Re: Poll stories

Southern Illinoisian's Neighbo — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:46:17 -0000

In 2004, Marylander Alan Keyes came to IL for ninety days and got 28%.

Now, lifelong Illinoisan Crazy Aunt Judy Topinka is polling at 29%.

Ouch.

Re: Poll stories

Scott Fawell's Cellmate — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:38:00 -0000

Topinka is polling at 29%.

Keyes got 28%.

Ouch.

Re: Poll stories

Hmmmmmmmm — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:26:53 -0000

Ummmmmmmmmmmmm

The Herald Poll is almost two weeks old...

Literacy is a great thing isnt' it...

Re: Poll stories

Avid Trib Reader — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:22:38 -0000

Backyard Conservative:

The poll shows that you and 15 other people read the Tribune editorials. Of those, 14 are republican voting for Tony anyway. So big deal.

Re: Poll stories

Backyard Conservative — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 13:14:34 -0000

Avid Trib Reader, Trib editorial today says Stroger campaign is lying about Peraica.

http://www.chicagotribune.c...

That might explain the poll shift. Let's hope enough people who are fed up and reasonably informed vote Peraica for the election day poll that counts.

Re: Poll stories

Avid Trib Reader — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 12:39:52 -0000

From the Trib article today:

"In Chicago, where Stroger has seen a surge in support, the number of voters with an unfavorable opinion of Peraica has jumped a dozen percentage points in the last few weeks."

You just knew this would happen once people got a feel for the real Peraica.

Re: Poll stories

Caveat Eligorum — Tue, 31 Oct 2006 12:35:32 -0000

Niles Twp:

You raise a good point here that needs to be addressed. And I appreciate that you understand that Forest Claypool was not eligible to be appointed to the ballot due to the fact that a candidate that ran and lost cannot be a candidate in the General Election.

But the reality here is that the system was created to have the Committeemen from the 30 townships (like Niles) and the 50 Chicago Ward Committeemen appoint the candidate when there is a vacancy. You can be angry at the Committeemen for making the appointment they did (and apparently you do). But to elect an non-reformer like Tony Peraica is like cutting off your arm because you don't like the gloves your mom bought you for Christmas. Tony Peraica is like crab-grass. Left unattended and he overtakes your lawn. Pull him out at the root and your lawn is plush.

But Tony continues to spread his shi...er fertilizer and continues to grow, worse than any weed in the entire forest perserve system.