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That means a lot. When a person contributes, they are involved at a different level. I believe that Obama is the hope of many to turn this country around and reestablish the U.S. as a respected nation throughout the world.
I'd say he's doing alright.
He's certainly a more successful candidate than Kirk Dillard's other presidential candidate, John "The Wheels Have Come of the Express" McCain.
-- SCAM
Time will tell.
Louis G. Atsaves
The major problem I have with Obama is that he seems to have little grasp of the nuts and bolts details of virtually every important issue. His debates have largely landed with a thud when compared to some of the other Democratic candidates....this is true even though the debates up to this point have been heavily scripted Democratic friendly talking points that he should have excelled in. As an example, look at his almost embarrassingly mediocre performance on the civil-rights debate - one that he was widely touted to shine in. Every time Obama opens his mouth and speaks to issues we see a tremendous lack of gravitas. Unless the voting criterion you use is 'Anybody But Bush' it does not appear that Obama has the experience to lead the country. Just saying that 'Americans deserve more' or other such sound bytes does not a good leader make.
I see Obama as little more than a glamor flake for a party that finds itself with a difficult candidate; a candidate that will be the most divisive person to run for president in recently memory. The disdain of Hillary Clinton is so thick and palpable that many people are desperate for another choice. Obama is that choice; it's just a choice of symbolism over substance.
All this being said, the next-to-last thing I would ever want to do is turn control of the country over to Chicago Democrats. After all - it is working so well here in Illinois. The only thing I can think of that would be worse is giving control back to Hillary. Eight years of her meddling was plenty.
I think it was telling that when Obama had his big door-to-door Walk For Change, the only southern Illinois event was in the Metro East -- and to my knowledge that was barely attended. (I'm going off the map his campaign had provided...but a google search for "Obama Walk For Change Southern Illinois" backs me up).
He can't get by on always saying, "We need to end the partisanship in this country...yada yada yada"
One thing that occurs to me is that whether or not Obama wins this thing (and not saying he can't), his incredible donor base has got to have the Hillary-ites talking about the VP nod. If he can bring his 250,000 donors to the general campaign ticket in 2008, it could be lights out Republicans.
So no matter what happens next January, Obama has to be feeling pretty good. Not bad for a man who's been serving in D.C. all of 2 1/2 years.
Overall I think Obama is sitting pretty. Everyone has to remember that this guy was unknown two years ago nationally and to be a constant second in the polls really does say something when you're going up against someone who's been around for two decades on the national scene.
I'm also adding 'inability to listen' to my stereotype of rabid Obamites. Want to throw another freaking campaign ad out?
fund-raising successes, his poll numbers
don't seem to be moving upward, despite all
of the Clinton backage. Ominous?
Esteban, I'd say that six months out the fact that he's consistently a second to HRC and almost always ahead of Edwards who has near universal name rec. from his last run says a lot.
Obama is appealing to folks who have not had strong voter turnout (young people). Thus, these polls fail to reflect the grass roots apathetic voters who are being engaged by the process for the first time and are not only giving mone but will show up and vote.
I would say that Obama embiggens the small people who have felt left behind and not previously been engaged by the political process. 31 Million in small amounts speaks to this effect.
To respond to So Ill: I was in Iowa during the walk for change, and there were at least 15 people who had made the drive four hours from Metro East to canvass for the day in a small town, so I would say that's some measure of success.
Gore Obama 08. I can't imagine that there are people willing to vote for Gore.
Whitewater, Keating 5, ex-wives, etc.
It will be an annoyance, but not stick.
Alas, it will likely be something stupid like one overheard off-color joke that will make or break candidates.
In addition, he hasn't really TRIED to appeal to Green voters. I haven't heard him say ANYTHING about what reforms he might support in order to lower the barriers for new political parties.
I think that the easiest thing that he could do would be to come out strongly in public support of Instant Runoff Voting for federal elections. That would cost him little, if any, political capital; and it would show some good faith on his part.
If Obama wanted to be a little more ambitious, he would pledge to appoint a few Greens--there are plenty of suitable posts for such a gesture.
Obama needs to hit a home run in one of these candidate debates and outshine the field.
When you look at the field he is the new voice and we really need change not more years of what seems like the Bush-clinton-Bush era.
for president since 2004 he's doing ok. but it's still all a bit puffy and presumptuous----that
Ill. poll should give them great pause. Obama
has no Senate record not because of his short
time in office....it's because he really has
not been functioning as a Senator. and, the
Ill. poll may reflect what the nation will
learn soon....Illinois and Cook County are no
example to lend to the nation!
Rezko is just a good one word way of describing
the negative ball that Obama has to go along
with the big wet puppy puffball of Obama book
club goo that they think will get the buyers.
oops I mean voters!
He also has shown he is smart, but who is he going to rely on. It takes more then one person to run this country. Bill Clinton did not delegate enough, Bush delegated too much and to the wrong people, who is going to help him. Hillary has Bill and 8 years in the White House. To get the nod, he needs to get deep pockets and fill the experience gap.
I will say this, outside the political geeks like us that focus on this stuff all the time, the general public is only somewhat paying attention to the field right now. The poll numbers do not move noticiably these days. Obama has to hit another big shot a la Audacity of Hope, and he needs to time it right. If he can dazzle the crowd on a big stage in the late debates he will walk away with it.
I'll go on the record and say this: Obama hasn't done his job in Illinois. I don't doubt that he CAN -- I voted for him and am proud to say it -- but he hasn't, and he isn't, and while he has a "whole country to run in", he has a state to help run.
Didn't a poll come out recently that had Hillary polling at a greater percentage in NY than Obama was in IL? That should be of some concern. Fact is, you have to defend your home base. He's not doing it, not well. He hasn't been anywhere in Illinois, outside of Chicago, in months.
It's still early in the campaign, and I agree that Iowa is of primary importance since its primary is early. All I'm saying is either the campaign or the Senate office hasn't given people in my area much of a reason to vote for Obama in recent months, and that's what I'm hearing from others in southern Illinois as well.
Larry Sabato, an objective analyst, sent out a newsletter about two weeks ago, specifically disussing Clnoton's high negatives and pointing out that she would be a very polarizing candidate and President, if elected, simply because so many people dsilike her so ntensely. My personal opinion is that if she gets the nomination she will be elected Presdient, but it will be a much closer election. The only reason she is electable is becasue the Bush adminstration/Republican rule has been so dismal the last 8 years.Do we really want four more years of polarization after 16 years of the Clinton and Bush administrations???
Obama is the much stronger candidate in a general election because he is genuinely likeable and a Teflon candidate. He has far more appeal to independents and even some crossover appeal to Republicans. I read an article in the current issue of the American Specator telling conservatives to be very afraid if Obama is the nominee. The author suggested that Obama could do for liberalism what Reagan did for conservatism.
Obama's fundaraisng results are nothing less than phenomenal.He has more youth appeal than any candidate since Eugene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy. He seems to learn form his mistakes - his perfomrance before a civil reights crowd at Howard University was eclipsed by Hilary Clinton, but he did a much better job at the NAACP convention.
He is far better intellectully and experientially qualfied to be President than George Bush was when he was elected. (Bush was created and elected by Karl Rove despite his many characterological and intellectual flaws.)
Obama seems to be well-positioned if Hilary Clinton stumbles, I think he has much greater potential for growth in the polls. I believe that many African-American voters will eventually switch from Hilary to Obama in the primaries after Iowa and New Hampshire.
If I were betting at this point, I see Hilary as the Presidential nominee and Obama as the VP nominee. I've read where Hilary will never pick Obama for VP. If she doesn't it's a significant mistake on her part. He is the exception to the general rule that a VP candidate can not help a ticket, only hurt it. Obama creates genuine exciteemnt wherever he goes because of his charismatic appeal.
I could envision a scneario where Obama fights Clinton to a draw, and Gore emerges as the Presediential nominee in a brokered convention. Obama will defintely be the VP nominee if Gore somehow secures the presidintial nomination.
Win-or-lose, VP or not, I see great things for Obama in the future. For me,it's a win-win situation. I'm supporting Obama, but I like Clinton. My only reservations about Hilary Clinton are her very high negatives in every poll I have ever seen.
"Things look worse for Obama when one starts digging into those very same polls to see how Democratic voters are breaking down. In a June 4 Washington Post/ABC News poll, asked to name which candidate was the strongest leader, 50% said Clinton, 26% said Obama; asked who would best handle a major crisis, 47% said Clinton, 24% Obama; and, finally, asked who had the best experience to be president, 66% said Clinton, while just 9% said Obama. No matter which party one is talking about, those three criteria - strength, good judgment and experience - are how Americans choose presidents."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/...
1. Most of Illinois delegation - naturally, they still need him for their projects.
2. Many out of state blacks - naturally, they want to stay good with their black constituents.
3. Odd balls: Abercrombie, Wexler. Need one say more.
4. Russ Carnahan from neighboring Missouri. Helps him on future joint state projects.
Doesn't look like congressmen and senators think much of his chances.
Good analysis. I think you hit the points well - HRC is just not a likable candidate and Obama is. We went through this is the 80 election cycle. A likable candidate against one with high negatives. Little was factored in as to ability to be Pres.
Also I am old enough to remember the 1960 election cycle and experience was an issue - A sitting VP against a junior senator. One had the resume but was not likable but the winning candidate had curb appeal.
Between experience and high negatives and in experience and good appeal, I will bet on to latter as a successful candidate. Agreed if the dems will nominate Obama he will be the strongest candidate.
p.s. I am a true independent - no party preference but look at the candidate for each office.
That being said here are 2 facts on Obama which underscore his mediocrity as a pres. candidate:
1. He promised to serve out his term and has not kept his word.
2. In his 2 years as Senator, he has done absolutely nothing tangible for the people of Illinois, that I can see. Even his staff seems to have other priorities, as "routine" constituent service is ignored.
In my opinion, Obama needs to do the job he was elected to do instead of gallevanting around the country pursuing his dreams and fantasies. The people of Illinois are entitled to 2 full-time Senators and we deserve someone who is up to the job.
This 2nd place cloud has a "silver lining" in that it suggests that Barack is being humbled and that Democrats are finally taking him off the pedestal. Maybe it will make him a better senator.
Hillary has done nothing to work with or bring the parties together to try and create meaningful legislation. She is a divider. Is this the expereince we treasure for mending problems with other countries?
Obama's lacks what? the ability to negotiate with both sides? he has that. He has experience living and working in a multinational school. Clinton started pushing her healthcare ideas when Bill was president. She had his eight year plus her current term. She failed to get any support. She totes that same goal now...but her experience on this point is that she has no ability to garner sufficient support, with over a deacde of trying! thats not experience, thats a failure of leadership.
There are more precidents favoring the former First Lady than it does the freshman senator. Clinton has been planning to run for office since she graduated from Wellsley. Obama has been planning on running only since Yale. Clinton married the most charming politician in the US since Reagan, Obama didn't. Clinton was propelled to her prominence based on being married to the right guy - the President of the United States. Obama hasn't. Clinton has been working the Democratic party since 1990 - Obama hasn't.
Except for his Howard Dean-like Internet hauls, Obama has little to show for his effort so far. The polls are not encouraging at all.
Even in his home state - he is in a statistical tie with Clinton. There are no polls showing Obama leading Clinton in any states, let alone states with primaries coming up within the next six months. He is not only behind - he is behind by double digits.
The Democratic Party has been comfortably establishment-minded concerning presidential candidates since McGovern and Carter. No one can say that any Democratic candidate since 1976 could be considered charismatic or cutting-edge. In 1992, the only time the Democrats elected one of their own, you saw Clinton running as the most conservative Democratic since Cleveland in 1892 and he still was not fully embraced by the Party until he received the nomination and Perot self destructing that summer.
Mondale, Dukakis, and Kerry were chosen by Party regulars. Although everyone knew each of these guys were toast even before they got the nomination, the Party chose them as the safest picks.
In 2008, the safe pick for Democrats is Clinton's wife who has the name recognition, money, connections and Bill Clinton's magic on her side.
What Obama has safely done so far is establish himself for future runs in 2012 and beyond. He could easily wait if for some fluke, the former First Lady gets elected in November 2008 and hangs in there for two terms.
For those who believe that Democrats will win with Hillary in 2008, they had a good shot had the election been held last November. Since gaining the majority in Congress, the Democrats have responsibility for the situations we now deal with, and as polls clearly show, are not handling their tasks in a manner that shows they had a plan for 2008 and beyond. Whatever crap floats down the pike at us will end up on their laps too. This makes 2008 much less of a shoe-in as some partisans hope.
Obama - so far, close, but as John Edwards discovered in 2004, being a perennial number two doesn't get you the nomination. He will have to wait until Bill Clinton's wife self-destructs, and we all know how UNlikely that will be.
As far as 1992, and I was there, Bill Clinton was pretty much "annointed" by the time of the Illinois primary, and was the machine's candidate by default. He was made for tv and wasn't saying anything of substances outside the DNC's comfort zone. The other candidates in '92, Brown was too cutting edge and Tsongas was too colorless for even for party regulars to embrace.
HRC is going to be the nominee, like her or not. Time for Obama to stop pharting around and return to the job he was elected to do.
Furthermore, I'd be curious to see how successful his direct mail fundraising has been. I gave a measly amount online 3 months ago and have received no fewer than 6 direct mail attempts to get me to donate again. Usually included is a long-winded, dull, ineffective letter from David Plouffe. The sheer waste of paper annoys me. If I donate online, I'll probably donate online again. Save the expense!
The Resko business is annoying, but I don't think it will be an issue. I have to wonder why Obama's communications staff didn't just come out with every interaction Obama ever had with Resko all at once. It would have been a 2 day news story at best.
I am glad that Obama isn't busy slinging one-liners and completely dominating the press at this time. That should come much later. There's no reason to peak in the press right now only to be yesterday's news story when it counts.
How would you propose that teachers be graded, recognizing that students inherently perform at different levels, regardless of the teacher's efforts or expertise? A student's parents play a large part in the performance of a student, and the teacher has absolutely no control over that.
Barrack is doing very well with his campaign in this pre-election season. He is the candidate promoting change. His challenge comes when the voting booths replace the polls as indicators. Sound bites for change must evolve to HOW he will institute change. If he does that he will be the next President.
The up-coming presidential election will turn out to have been just a warm-up session for Barack. His "moment in the sun" will be the following presidential elections.