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Medicaid payments, I wouldn't touch those. Many times that sort of thing is life or death.
State employee payroll. No, many people aren't getting paid what they are worth, now.
So, that leaves K-12 education. The Sun-Times has a site where you can look up any teacher's salary. Some I know personally and they aren't worth a sack of spit.
Many are worth gold. But it is the one or two slackers that can really hurt a kids education.
So, that is where I would be turning a concerning eye and try to get rid of the heavy weights and recruit some young people that really want to teach.
Um, that would probably increase payroll costs.
Here's why. It's the only item on that choice that delays the pain for another day. This is the worst budgetary crisis we have ever seen, in the midst of a major economic crisis. All the other options hurt people directly, hurt the current economy and hurt citizens directly and immediately.
Our state pension system is also in crisis, and deferring payments is a bad idea - but the other options are worse. We need to do 2 things to resolve the pension crisis and meet our obligations: raise taxes or direct a special revenue stream for pension obligations, end the defined benefit (pension) system for all new state employees - it is simply not sustainable
Try again.
And, remember, simple solutions are almost never either.
I know AFSCME is a no-get-around, but Jesus...these are tough times. Some folks I know making 70-80-90K for sitting at a desk and doing computer networking/help desk... and then others in supervisory/manager roles...these people are lucky to have a job as they would be hard pressed to find one paying them that much in this area, let alone anywhere right now.
I am not for layoffs. But the distribution of state payroll is not right.
Try again.
Try again.
Lose Shared Services = cut payroll.
I think we are going in the direction of a federally funded health care system in any case, and if we can afford a trillion (going for two) to bail out the banking system, we can afford to set up a federally funded system similar to (but not necessarily identical to) those in Western European democracies.
And no, this doesn't mean that folks wouldn't be able to choose their own doctor.
Politically, Quinn should sit down with AFSCME and explain what he's willing to do in cutting high-paid but unnecessary management wherever he finds it (AFSCME probably would be willing to help him find it) in return for some contract renegotiation that would let him terminate documented nonperformers. If he did it that way, he'd come out ok politically.
Fiscally, he'd have to get AFSCME to agree that the goal would be to eliminate $1 billion in costs.
Cutting rates to providers, when they are already being paid very late and in many cases very little, doesn't make much sense.
The Illinois state employee/population rate is the lowest in the nation already. Many would argue that it is too low and that some critical safety functions are currently undermined by the low staffing eg. nursing home inspections, ensuring safety for the developmentally disabled in group homes, other public safety, emergency preparedness to name just a few. Additionally, given the downturn, many more Illinoisans are in need of services such as Food Stamps, WIC, TANF, unemployment benefits, Liheap, Medicaid - so now is not the time to cut staffing at local offices.
Pensions are already underfunded and stiffing them more costs in the long run.
Noone in their right mind would suggest cutting funds for education. There may be some arguments about redistributing education funding but certainly not cutting it.
The only real option to balance the budget is to increase revenues and to lobby hard to maximize federal funds from the stimulus package.
There will be more pain besides this one little cut. That's the point of the question.
That's just not feasible. So it'd have to be a cut of state payroll, right? But if the average state employee makes, let's say, 60K a year...we'd have to cut 16,667 employees.
Well, that ain't happening.
So I'm going with a cut in medicaid benefits. I know that makes me a heartless b-----d, but I think it's the only feasible option of the above. We have to pay providers, or the medicaid benefits won't be usable. We have to pay pensions because it's required by the law. So...that's the only option we have.
* Medicaid reimbursements to private and not-for-profit providers: Already laughably low and late, with few providers willing to accept new Medicaid participants. My wife had a follow-up appointment with a practitioner when we were on All-Family and the state paid less than $15. How much less can you cut it before no doctor at all accepts it?
* Medicaid benefits to participants- Medicaid already doesn't cover preventative care like physicals; Will it cut Rxs when someone gets sick?
* Required state payments to the pension funds- has been pushed back too many times already, and already may bankrupt the state. However, politically, I see this being palitable because, hey, we've done it for the last 20 years, why not make it 21?
* State employee payroll- still bloated, but I don't know by $1 billion this year alone. Plus the unions, who would have to take a haircut, will raise real hay.
* K-12 education- the sacred cow in every state, and everyone's afraid to touch it. Politically, this won't be done, but it should be. IL spends way too much on education for the results. Small districts need to merge, saving on super salaries and admin staff (journey of a thousand miles, Rich). Pet programs need to be cut for basic literacy and math skills. Tech budgets can and should be peeled back. Classroom sizes will have to get bigger. It's absurd that public schools can't do the job for $6500/kid when Catholic schools make do on half that amount. Fiscally, this area has the biggest bloat, because Education departments never have to do real cuts. Politicians are so afraid of the education lobby that they apologize for small increases in funding.
Cut Medicaid benefits to participants. Why? Because they are old and sick anyway and it's the inherent dynamic forces that allow only the fittest persons or organizations to prosper in a competitive environment or situation. Darwinism.
Illinois already ranks last or near among the 50 states in support to public schools. Taking $1B from there would only increase property taxes, the most dreaded tax of all. Those salaries for school administrators which previous bloggers complained about are despicable, but they are a bigger hit on local property tax bills than they are a drain on any support the State provides.
Governors and General Assemblies of the past have underfunded State pensions for years. If it hasn't already, that problem is coming to a head.
With State employee payroll, most state agenices are woefully understaffed already. If we think State services are inadequate now, they will get worse if we cut $1B from this line item.
The answer is to raise taxes. Unfortunately, we should have done it in Blago's first term before the economy really tanked. It will be a very difficult sell now.
At least the Governor, Senate President Cullerton and Speaker Madigan have said they are willing to discuss all possibilities. Potential increases in the gas tax and the income tax have been mentioned recently. If we are looking at all possibilities, though, let's look at expanding the sales tax base. We could generate over $3B if we extended the sales tax to professional, administrative and personal services.
Try again.
This would indeed shift costs to the retirement systems but it likely would also allow for hiring new folks at lower salaries into those jobs (thus reducing unemployment costs to the state budget) and reducing unemployment is a major state and federal priority. And if those folks didn't need to be replaced...unnecessary jobs are eliminated sans bureaucratic bloodshed.
The employee balance will shift to look more like the actual population, the haves and the have nots; large agencies and a few small ones. This will bring state services to a crawl.
$1 billion cut to Education
- The State currently spends $7 billion or so on education, out of about $20 billion spent in combined state, local and federal education money. $1 billion would be the smallest percentage hit on the overall education budget, but would hit hard the schools in low-income and rural communities that depend HEAVILY on state support.
$1 billion cut to Medicaid
- This would be the equivalent of cutting almost 1 million children off of healthcare.
- Or, this would be cutting all 500,000 adults off of healthcare, and then 250,000 kids
- Or, this would be cutting all seniors off of Medicaid
- Or, it would be cutting half the disabled adult population off of medicaid
- Or, obviously, some combination of the above.
$1 billion cut to state employee payroll
- This would mean probably around 13,000 layoffs
The rating agencies won't like it, but who cares? They're the people who gave the Triple A ratings to the sub-prime mortgage securities.
It will cost more in the long run, but we're in an immediate, dire emergency. And as Mr. Keynes said, in the long run, we're all dead.
A couple of points to consider:
1.Now is not the time to cease payments to the Pension funds as the equity markets are down and will eventually rise. You are purchasing equities at their 5-to-10 year lows. Buy low and sell high. A redo for future State employee pension benefits is a fix, but not the immediate "cut" anticipated by the question.
I guess my ax would fall on the level of medicaid benefits provided. Easy for me to say because my employer has decent health insurance, right?
You'll save the other $5 billion during the resulting state employees strike.
Cut Medicaid benefits. The state has expanded eligibility the last few years so roll back eligibility. Additionally, under the federal rules for Medicaid there are required services for certain classes of individuals and optional services - trim the optionals.
If i could throw an additional option on the table, look into reductions to Higher Education funding...
I then thought about cutting state payroll, and that's where I assumed the $60K/person salary.
Just making sure you followed me there.
Good, tough question, Rich.
You gave us the option of cutting funding to education but you only gave us the K-12 option. I think there is more areas for savings at the university and college level. I really think we need to look very closely at what is spent at our State Colleges and Universities. Some of the furnighings for alumni reception centers and college deans are way over the top. I think we could cut the extravagance out of these budgets and still keep tuitions affordable and true education at a high quality. Some of these institutions are used by corporations as research and development facilities because professors, deans, and board members, also sit on the boards of the corporations. Are the schools being adaquately compensated for this service? I'll bet not. A complete audit of these institutions might well reveal an opportunity for a billion dollars worth of savings and revenues.
And why does this happen? Because as every Governor and legislator since 1973 knows, Illinois ain't got no stinking "primary responsibility" for education. For this, merely look to Blase v. Illinois, 302 N.E. 2d 46 (1973), which established that the "primary responsibility clause" of Article X does not require the state to fund 50% or more of the costs of public education.
Stiff the locals and stiff the kids. Again. So that we can staunch the budget hemorrhage in Springfield.
End of diatribe. We now return to regular programming.
Two pieces of very important context for those considering the slash-state-employee-payroll option:
(1) Total state employee payroll is perhaps approx $3.5 or $4 billion, so a $1 billion cut would mean the layoff of more than 1/4 of the state workforce. In terms of jobs, that means throwing some 15-20,000 people out of work. In terms of services, it would mean the release of thousands of prison inmates, put thousands of individuals with mental illnesses and developmental disabilities in the street, curtail child protection and state police, close veterans homes and state parks, etc.
(2) As many have noted, most recently President Cullerton in his inaugural remarks, Illinois already has the nation's fewest state employees per capita.
Higher ed budget has been almost completely flat for six years. That's one reason why they were excluded. It's also pretty small expenditure by comparison to the other items listed.
The choices I gave you are the real biggies. Stick to them, please.
In the short term we'll underfund the pensions more, but the only way out this mess is with tax increases.
==* 12:01 pm - Hynes says we’ll have a “carry over debt†from this fiscal year of $4.28 billion, plus $1.5 billion for spending that has not yet been appropriated.
IOW, we simply need to catchup on one years worth of debt next year. We aren't going to do that, so there is going to have to be a plan to:
1) Cut spending as it can be
2) Issue bonds to cover the shortfall in the short term and pay it back over time
3) reduce pension contributions again
4) raise taxes to eventually pay off bonds and make pensions stable.
With any luck, Medicaid will be fundamentally restructured under a form of universal health care and also create some savings down the road.
And remember, this doesn't include the money for things like parks that Quinn has promised to reinstate and corrections including Pontiac. Not huge costs in the overall budget, but enough to make this all the harder.
Sure, buy into the line that there aren't any other options to balance the budget than your list, but it doesn't make it true.
How much does California get in tax revenues from their medical marijuana program? $300 million? How much do the states where marijuana is a fine instead of a regular crime save in law enforcement and drug war costs? Springfield just announced they will make small time marijuana possession a fine instead of a cage to save money. What if we allowed industrial hemp production like they do in Canada, who turn around and sell it to US automakers? How were our casino tax revenues compared to neighbor states where smoking is allowed? How much did our sales tax and liquor tax revenues decline when smoking was outlawed in bars and how many went out of business?
There are plenty of avenues for revenue and for savings other than your list. But to be fair, if Quinn and Illinois Democrats feel forced to stick to your list then they will find some fake short-term "solution" tax increase without trying to better manage the costs in your lists and pass along the bill to our future. That is not a solution because that type of leadersip has put us into a "$9 billion" deficit.
Yes the state can save significantly in K-12 education, but they have the end the government teacher unions and high paid administrators monopoly over education.
Yes pension payments can be reduced if we immediately stop promising the very generous packages that are more than we can afford.
Yes state employee payroll can be reduced. We don't need, and don't have right now to prove that point, a Lt Governor's office and budget. We can combine the Treasurer and Comptroller offices. We can get rid of or suspend or drastically cut the Illinois Arts Council, Sports Facility Board, Tourism advertising, government program advertising, business subsidies to the likes of Motorola and Boeing and Muntu Dance Theater and "after-school programs" (RickEy) and bloated public housing subsidies (Rezko, Allison Davis) and contracts that do more harm than good, and all the non-essential luxuries that don't directly support basic living conditions of those that need help.
The more freedom we have in Illinois, the more businesses and people will want to live and work and be entreprenuerial here. That is the long-term solution. The smallest, most efficient government taking care of the basics while protecting our inherent freedoms. Are the Democrats proposals sending us in the right direction toward freedom and prosperity, or the wrong direction toward bigger, centralized, powerful, greedy, undemocratic, freedom and economy stifling government?
Nope, the State Constitution guarantees benefits awarded.
stimulus funding is a one-shot deal. It very likely isn't. In parallel discussions about the financial industry, there is recognition of the likely need for more hundreds of billions of federal investment dollars down the line.
Lord knows I bet there are a lot of state jobs that could be cut without affecting services but in this economy, that's not the way to go. The purpose of the federal stimulus, or one purpose anyway, is decrease the need to lay of state and local government employees.
That's why getting the feds to take over something major like Medicaid (and, hopefully, universal health care) is the route to take. The feds can print money and they have shown willingness to take on major debt to get us out of this economic meltdown.
You can't kick old people and kids off the health care rolls. So that's not likely either.
Third, you can't just across-the-board cut state employees, because that includes state troopers and prison guards. Do we really want 10% fewer of each of those?!
Fourth, if you cut education, you're going to see draconian cuts at the local level - athletic programs, music and arts programs, drastic teacher layoffs and property tax increases.
This is a statewide problem, and I think, in order for everyone to be an equal partner in this, 10% across the board cuts in government are the best way to put a dent in the mess. You can offset cuts to guards and cops with the elimination of a large number of "Deputy Directors" and the like, many of which are political hacks with no business in those jobs anyway. To make up the rest, you put in a plan to work on the pensions without obligating the full amount this year, hoping the economy grows enough to start working on it in the next year or two.
As a proponent of efficient, common sense administration of government, when you can't afford it, you don't spend it.
With the recent years of previous cuts, if you take an additional 10% everywhere, I think you get to about as lean a government as we can expect in this state. At that point, if there still aren't enough revenues or there is a glaring need for some service, you have a decent excuse to go to the taxpayers for something reasonable - not just a taxpayer funded bailout of years of irresponsible growth in government programs and overspending, which is what we have now.
I have absolutely zero confidence this will happen, because it's going to be too hard for politicians to bite the bullet and make the tough choice. I've seen no evidence of that in my adult like. So I see no reason to expect it now.
Pension fund holiday. We've had too many of these as is, but I don't think we can cut of medical care or cut jobs now and payments to schools need to be increased, if anything. So the pensions take a hit again.
In the long run, the state needs to up the retirement age. People live longer than they did when the retirement age was set at 65, that age is outdated. People live longer and are able to work longer. This will reduce the pension liability and make the pension holiday less of a hit to the funds.
Then, hiring freeze. Then, offer all state employees a buyout. Basically, a voluntary layoff. Anyone who takes advantage gets 6 months severance, plus help paying for COBRA.
I don't know how much that would save, but it's a place to start in terms of reducing state payroll. It should also cause less economic pain than a general layoff, which would just exacerbate the problems in the economy.
Tax increases would have to come next. Temporary increase to 5% statewide, with a bump in the exemption to reduce the impact on low income families. At the same time, start the drumbeat to amend the Constitution to get a graduated income tax. Later on, reduce the tax on most Illinoisans back to 3%, with a 6% rate on higher income families.
Increase the corporate tax rate and cut loopholes away.
Consider a small tax on services that are currently untaxed.
Consider folding more highways into the Tollway, shifting maintenance costs to the Tollway and creating a more direct user fee. The Edens, 290, 55, and 57 could all be made into toll highways.
Freeze pay rates (no COLA, sorry state employees, I'm not getting a COLA this year either)...possibly consider a "minor" across the board pay cut...say 2.5%
Increase the SUTA.
Medicaid is a big-ticket budget item, but it's only 50% state funded (and soon to be less), so $1 billion in cuts would only net you $500 million. Medicaid is actually an inefficient budgetary target.
The task is daunting and it should make all of us think before we enter the ballot box next time and elect leaders who worry more about getting re-elected than about managing our state with a long term focus on sustainability.
I would cut staff where possible, transfer funding responsibility to local governments where appropriate, privatize where necessary and look for new revenue streams.
I have never worked in State Government, however, I am confidant I could find your billion dollars with about a month of review.
Yes we do. Do you want to continue paying to lock people in cages for possessing small amounts of marijuana? And losing their productivity and tax revenues while they are locked up and from reduced potential earnings because of the stigma of small marijuana possession conviction? Maybe Barack Obama would be better off today if he had been caught with marijuana and jailed like the tens of thousands of youth across Illinois every year that weren't as lucky as him? Yes we want to reduce the state poliece and prison system by at least 10% and start treating drug addiction from a healthcare point of view instead of a lock them up and throw away the key point of view.
Treatment costs more than warehousing (which thanks to Rod's neglect is essentially what state prisons do anymore). So you're talking about an increase, not a cut. Thanks for playing.
Let's stick to the question and provide real answers, please.
Rich - not only was this a great exercise, appreciate the way you moderating it, correcting those who exhibited the mental of a radio talk show callers ... or otherwise assuming miracles.
Those are the biggest budgetary items. Take your pick.
Medicaid cuts would have to be draconian. Further short funding of pension contributions would be incredibly irresponsible. There's almost not enough employees to available for the state to cut. This new governor, even with the federal bailout money (note, I don't refer to this as stimulus), is facing an almost insurmountable problem without resorting to a tax increase. Maybe the G.A. would reconsider the GRT idea if pitched by someone other than Blagojevich:)
Just the "ramp" increase for next fiscal year is $1.2 billion. Redo the ramp over the subsequent years.
Again, that's just the "easy" one, and it ain't so easy. $5 billion to go if the stimulus bill passes. $8 billion if not.
This is a good question, and yet by limiting it to one of these areas, there will be some talk radio-esque responses. I would second the notion of putting the detailed state checkbook online (or for all disbursements >$5000). It might just prevent a few checks from folks like Rickey Hendon to "preferred" after-school programs that serve two people.
The state will likely need a tax increase in addition to severe cuts. Nobody should be happy, but that's going to be the punishment for a few decades worth of avoiding the real revenue and spending reform. Quite sobering news.
The problem is the voters don't believe any politician right now and will strongly punish a tax increase.
There are no sacred cows here.
* Medicaid reimbursements to private and not-for-profit providers - I would sit down with providers and come up with a figure that would pay them enough to stay open and get a check immediately to settle the accounts.
* Medicaid benefits to participants - I would implement tougher means testing and limit procedures allowable for benefits. I would limit Medicaid to under 18 years of age and to those over the age of 75.
* K-12 education (state portion of state/federal/local funding mix) - I would cut the state portion by $1 billion and let the school boards figure out how to survive on their own. I would close schools identified as having failed test scores. They have had years to make their schools work, and it is time to close the crappy performers and shuffle the resources to schools that educate.
* Required state payments to the pension funds - I would cut $1 billion from the payments owed. I would restructure the repayment plan and meet with officials to reduce pension costs. This is one of our structural deficits that have to be completely gutted. It cannot be saved as it is. So I would cut $1 billion this year to start that difficult project.
* State employee payroll - This is the most difficult part because we do not have excess here. But I would start by shutting down Chicago state offices and relocating them to Springfield. I would shut down the Thompson Center and sell it. Those who wish to be employed by the State of Illinois will need to work at the state capitol of Springfield. The Springfield cost of living is significantly cheaper than Chicagoland and salaries and benefits would reflect Springfield costs, not Chicago's - for the $1 billion is savings.
Everyone has to take a hit. There are no sacred cows in Illinois. By answering today's QOTD in this manner, I am displaying a recognition of the severity we face, the severity of the disfunction currently within our state government, and a need to completely reform state government by using this fiscal crisis to spur a new direction for Illinois.
We are broke. Our state has been underperforming for a decade. We must have radical change now, or we risk becoming another Michigan. There is no future here unless we stop extorting wages in the form of taxes from our citizens for a government that does not function. Demanding more taxes is not an option.
OK - you can all play "holier-than-thou" and go Blagojevich on us by posturing that my ideas are unworkable, heartless and evil. But you know where Blagojevich lives, right? Not in this world. Time to live in this one, right?
And, look - if you follow my ideas, everyone will know that everyone is taking a hit. We'll also have $5 billion to mend the holes in our fiscal situation. But even if we do squeeze out $5 billion out of these five areas, if we do not reform our structural deficit, we will not be better off in 2010, 2011, or 2012. Look at what has happened...
We had an economic boom. Our national economy grew to it's largest extent ever - but Illinois didn't boom. Our structural deficits were already tanking our state, even during the good times. We have to fix our fiscal structure or we are throwing good money at black holes with no improvement.
Today's crisis is the time to address these problems. No one is going to win. Everyone takes a hit. State government has to get skinny. Now.
- State employee payroll: $580M, split between:
--- $300M Renegotiation of all employee contracts, rolling back salaries (but not benefits) to preserve headcount.
--- $280M Elimination of 2500 - 3000 Administrative positions, with atleast 500 coming from the governor's political appointees.
Rich, will we have the revenue question tomorrow?
The savings isn't limited to just salary -- it's also benefits (primarily health insurance and pension) and overhead costs. The $1B figure might be a bit high, but I imagine one couldget pretty close with no discernable disruption of services.
Drug addiction and recreational drug use are not the same things as we see everyday with alcohol. And there are no marijuana addicts that require us to pay for their treatment. So yes, we are talking about a big cut. Thanks for playing.
Ok, how about the Daley/Blago approach: how much would Illinois State Beach Park fetch? What if we throw in a casino license?
Just a thought.
You said you wanted to change the system to treat drug offenders instead of simply incarcerate them. That has a (sizable) cost.
Now you seem to be claiming you simply want to release drug offenders. That, of course, would not require added investment in treatment programs. But it is not what your first post advocated. Further, I don't think you would get a lot of public support/political will behind simply putting drug felons back into communities with no treatment.
IMO we do need to expand treatment programs for drug offenders. But we need to understand and accept that creating such programs requires investment by the state. It will likely yield long-run savings but it incurs significant start-up costs.
Change the LEGISLATIVE pension system to keep people like Granberg from working one day on the State payroll and increasing his pension by $40K per year.
Limit the salaries for administrators in the Illinois school system. Small districts must consolidate with larger ones. If you have a school system that has only 500 children or less, everyone would benefit from consolidating with a larger system.
Privatize the State pension system (may be the wrong word here) but put all new hires into a 401(k) and at least stop adding new people to an already broken system. This will eventually happen to Social Security so it may as well happen to anyone in a State retirement system (and that includes legislators).
I agree with Quinn when he says State agencies need to be "fumigated". I interpret that to mean the political hires, the ghost employees. There are those who have legitimately gone through the Civil Service System and are properly placed in State positions. They shouldn't have to lose their jobs in order for a political hack to keep his/hers.
Privatize the Thompson prison. In fact, let outside companies build more prisons as we need them and let's get out of the prison business. I'm betting the prisons could be run more efficiently than the State runs them. Guards would keep their jobs - they just wouldn't be State employees any longer.
Finally, raise the income tax for a limited number of years. Make Blago's prediction come true. I can't help but believe Blago would have had to do this either this year or next. If he didn't, heaven knows what kind of condition this State would be in without it. He has been pretty proud of the fact that he hasn't raised (income) taxes but in a perfect world, could he have been re-elected to a third term if he didn't. People can deal with the financial reality we are facing in all aspects of our lives and I believe they could deal with an income tax hike as well. With unemployment as high as it is and rising, I'm just not sure if we would realize a net increase with an income tax hike. I think one will minus out the other.
(This is not an original idea as I believe it's what they're going to do in California.)
Anyway, even if it was possible, which it ain't, you're only proposing a 1/7 reduction to state payroll. That'd equal about half the billion dollars Rich asked you to cut.
The only way to build an ERI that doesn't hurt SERS would be to have the employee pay the full cost for both he/she and the State; that number would be prohibitively expensive for most State workers, easily exceeding a year's pay for the purchase of only three years of service.
Rich, the $10 billion POB issue is now under water, all the systems are less than 50% funded, and the 3 State systems are the worst of all. Cutting contributions or re-ramping is the worst possible option at the worst possible time. IF the State doesn't have the cash nor the will to raise sufficient revenue, a bond issue should be seriously considered. Not a taxable POB-no liquidity in the market. Just a straight, level pay, short maturity, GO Bond, to cover this year's increase. Concurrently, no mumbo-jumbo about "this is like refinancing your house," or "we're just recharacterizing the debt" will be allowed.
Failing that, go after payroll, and I don't mean the good workers at AFSCME or in other bargaining units. Broaden the cuts to higher ed, where the average "academic professional" is well into six figures, and K-12 administrators (see "Platinum Parachute" in Monday's Sun-Times)and the savings meter will add up faster than the total on a gas pump hooked to a Hummer in July.
So, for the furlough plan to work, I guess we'd have to cut some of the workforce off the top.
I find it interesting that many people think the state employees should take furlough days w/o pay, but these same people do not want their jobs cut.
It won't be at all easy. If some of the stimulus money can be used as replacement dollars, we might get 400 or 500 million GRF from education.
We might (MIGHT) save some more from Medicaid by slightly lowering certain provider rates, but its an inefficient savings because of the increased FMAP under stimulus.
You could probably do an across the board cut in non-entitlement lines and pick up a hundred million or two. If the agencies cooperate, and are given some flexibility they could probably live with that.
Based on my experience, the state will never get a salary freeze, much less a reduction thru AFSCME, but if you could a one-year freeze might save around a hundred million.
Tinker around some more and we might get another hundred million or two from misc cuts and changes, but we're about done as far as I can see.
If you're serious, you then start eliminating agencies, boards, and commissions, but you would have to eliminate 40 or more to get another 500-750 million GRF.
My overall take: it can't be anywhere close to done on the spending side. Unless, of course, we have VM take it over, talk to a few people like he suggests, cut checks from empty accounts, and so forth, and it would be a snap.
All of you who are advocating slashing and burning payroll through massive layoffs are going to make the economic problems in this state worse, including inflicting further harm upon the state's budget.
If you tear a billion dollars worth of salaries out of the budget, then that means that we lose about $30 million in income taxes, so you really need to cut $1.03 billion.
Inflicting unemployment on that many people also means loses to sales taxes and gas taxes (they won't spend as much, and they won't be driving to work).
So that's probably another $60 million in state revenues lost, so you're up to $1.1 billion.
If What the @ 12:22's figures are correct, and total salaries were $4.7 billion in Fiscal 08, then fiscal 09 salaries would be a baseline of $4.84 billion (3% COLA, no further growth). Eliminate that cola, and there's $140 million.
A further 3% reduction in salaries, across the board (not necessarily feasible, but...) would represent another $140 million. So, there you are at $280 million.
So, if you do an early retirement package, then you shift some costs to the Pension system, but you could clear out a lot of people at the top of their salary ranges.
If there are 65000 state employees, the current average pay rate is $72k. If 2% of employees take advantage of early retirement, then you'll save about $50 to $100 million. Depends on the terms of the buyout package.
$330 million.
Instituting a hiring freeze probably won't go far. Aside from retirees, we probably won't see a lot of people voluntarily leave their jobs in this economy.
So, part of the problem has to be solved by adjusting how state money is passed through to localities. We have more units of local government than any State in the country, If I recall correctly.
While a lot of those local units support themselves through funds from local property taxes and the like, many do get state money (such as schools, which get a portion of their revenues from the State).
By consolidating the number of districts, we can save money that is being passed through. Consolidate high school only school districts into the nearest k-8 district.
That will eliminate some positions in a more targeted manner than broad slash and burn layoffs would. High level salary positions like superintendents will get hit all over the state, and many will have the opportunity to take early retirement.
Delay some payments into the pension system, even though now is the time to "buy low" - unfortunately, we got nothing to buy with.
Systematic savings may be achieved through moving more roads into the tollway system as well. Gas taxes can be used for state highways and local road projects, and the tollway, which charges a direct user fee, will be responsible for maintaining the roads that fall under it's purview.
The rest is going to require a tax hike, preferably an income tax hike.
You still haven't answered my question to you. If state employees are going to take a 1 in 5 day furlough, will you also take a 1 in 5 day furlough?
Our last Gov. cut headcount, but cut from the lower wage bottom and added to the higher wage top. Even though he made a big deal about lowering the number of state employees, my understanding is that the resulting savings were minimal.
It looks like the whole structure of employment in the state needs to be repaired (front line vs supervisory staff as well as which departments are over staffed and which are too low). Until that task is accomplished, I don't see how you can save serious money without risking serious harm which would have a high cost in the long run.
Likewise, cutting medical care for the poor and eduction for everyone has very serious long term consequences. I do not know much about the medicaid system, so I leave that to others. The schools have been underfunded OR incorrectly funded for years. Cuts to education are a bad idea. The main area for cuts would be admin, and if money could be saved there, it should be redirected to the classroom.
The pension system is in trouble for two reasons: underfunding & too-early retirement. While cutting funding for a year or two is not a great idea, the impact can be offset by raising the retirement age to 68 or even 70. The number of people living into their 70's and 80's is much higher than it was when the retirement age was set at 65 and the system is not structured to accommodate all of those retirees. Given a choice between losing their job and having to work a few extra years, I think most people would take the latter. This solution can be put into place more quickly and with less long term impact than any of the others.
Steve Schnorf would be my pick to head the Office of Management and Budget. That out to save us about $500 million. But here's some other moneysavers, that look at the whole spending equation: not only appropriations, but also tax expenditures:
Cap the sales tax reimbursement for retailers. There's another $50M (I wouldn't go as far as Meeks and eliminate it completely).
Pass all of the $400 million in corporate tax loophole provisions that have been on hold, now that there's a grown-up in the Governor's office.
Sales Tax Reform:
- Lower the overall state portion of the sales tax from 5% to 4.5%
- Expand the sales tax base to include consumer services
- Close the exemption on goods and services purchased over the internet
= $1.5 Billion in revenue
Pension Obligation Bonds ($16B borrowed over 40 years at 6%) - $320M a year in interest payment savings
Vanilla Man: there are a variety of eligiblity categories mandated under federal law. They include persons with disability, persons receiving TANF, pregnant women. So you can't limit to children and those over age 75.
What the?: The mandatory services are the expensive ones - hospital, nursing home etc. The optionals which Illinois has previously cut and then reinstated save virtually nothing (like less than $10 mill) except for dental and dental for children is required and the dental package for adults is really puny and to cut it you have to be willing to say that seniors in nursing homes can go without dentures. Some states like Missouri have indeed cut some optionals like prostheses but most of us think it is pretty draconian to say to a poor amputee "buy your own leg." Rx is technically an optional but we already have a 3 drug limit before medical review and no state has cut off drugs. It wouldn't make sense, those needing them would then be in the emergency room.
Are there a few areas that we could cut in Medicaid? - yes a few and maybe we could wring $75-100 million out of the program, which would save us half that amount as we get a 50:50 federal match.
Anyone that knows much about the Illinois Medicaid program will tell you, there isn't much fat there. Funding healthcare for those who most need healthcare (persons with disability and seniors and pregnant women)costs a good deal of money. Illinois is a below average cost state - not as low as Wisconsin or CA but pretty low and the administrative cost is very low. Claims processing which is all done in house here in Illinois is the most cost effective in the nation.
So while ideologically, some may like the idea of "cutting Medicaid" - it isn't a realistic option if you need to reach a figure like $1 billion in savings.
Yeah, I knew that. I don't have a problem with these mandated rules when I posted earlier.
Jerry 101 - your dire predictions only come true if those laid off never find work. That doesn't happen. You can easily half those figures.
Why should government workers, regardless of how hard working, dedicated, etc. some my be)above all else have a pension right none of the rest of us have? There are plenty of hardworking people in, for instance, the nonprofit sector who are paid less than government workers and have no right to a pension.
When companies are in the dire straights that our state is now in, they can declare bankruptcy and get rid of their devastating pension obligations. State and local government have no such recourse.
Think about it from a good government perspective: If government workers didn't have pension rights and came into government for the same reason that people pursue other callings, would we not have fewer people doing nothing but hanging on till they could collect their pensions?
Okay, government workers hanging out here (rather than working), have at me. Yes to con con.
I await 2028 with bated breath...hope I still have a pulse by then.
Are you talking about state employees? Most are collecting a pension by age 60. I believe a raising of the retirement age for people in the existing system would be looked at by the courts as an unconstitutional diminishing of pension benefits. Future employees, maybe...we'd see the benefits in about 30 years.
2. New pension/benefit rules for any new hirees. Without a union ok, it would be difficult to change pensions/salaries for current employees.
3. The legislators lead the way by freezing salaries for all state elected officials for 5 years and establishing new rules for their pensions also. People complain about the state employees and there pensions, but the legislators get a sweet deal too.
4. As much as I hate to say it. A tax increase. I would prefer to see a sales tax or vat type so all players in the economy pay, again spread the pain around. Or a state income tax increase.
To those of you who want to cut back funding to hospitals and human services providers, don't worry about it. Based on current underfunding and late funding, we will lose over 10% of these providers in the next few years, if they have not alrady closed their doors. Fewer facilities and programs mean more waiting lists for vulnerable individuals and families, and more deaths for poor persons mean fewer state agency clients to serve, right?
Raise taxes and be able to sleep at night.
Reminder: there are no pockets in shrouds. Spend your money now on charities and essential government programs, and earn your way to heaven. Accept your social responsibility.
Justice, I previously advocated retiring the phrase "thinking outside the box," but I think an exception needs to be made in your case. Proposing to arm the citizenry as a means of reducing the state budget deficit is certainly out of the box... or something.
The first one, underfunding, is the big problem. The general demographic issue of folks living longer is manageable if the actuarial assumptions are evaluated frequently and contribution rates tweaked as needed. Setting a normal retirement age at 55 or 60 is not extravagant if the pension fund is fully funded. Oops.
One of Illinois' many pension fiascoes has been the enactment of various early retirement without discount "window periods" that allowed people as young as 50 to retire and draw a full pension in some cases. The explosion of State workers being added to the pricier "alternative formula" (the one that started out for State Police and now has everyone from sign hangers to arson investigators in it-retire at 50 with 27 years-no discount-80% pension) has been another burden on SERS; 1 in 3 SERS members is now in the alternative formula. Couple all these cost pressures with the lousy investment returns, especially at ISBI, and the outlook is bleak.
PS: Taxhound, Senator Burris called. He wants you to stop using his buzzword, zero-based budgeting, that he suggested for the State in 1975.
The Alternative Service formula applies mainly to State Police, front-line Bureau of Corrections, and IDOT Highway Maintainers, no? If these occupations are truly dangerous with about the same mortality and injury rates for in-service employees, it's hard to justify changing one to a lesser formula. And once it's changed upward, it's permanent due to IL's constitutional protection of state pensions which voters resoundingly affirmed last year.
Some state jobs rightfully get a higher pension percentage, state police and some jobs that are dangerous fine. Others maybe don't deserve the alternative formula.
Many state employees retirement is the of avg annual salary of last 4 yrs multiplied by (1.67 percent for every year of service) and have a rule of 85 (yrs of service plus age = 85 can retire w/no penalty) They would have to work 45 years to get the max of 75%
So a worker who started at 21, works to 53, has 32 years of service. If the avg 4 of salary was $45000, they would get pension of just over $24000 a year.
Be prepared, if early retirements come again, state services suffer. Lots of people go, and they don't exactly prepare the people who will take over jobs. In past early out times, some office folks were hired back to help process paperwork because they left before they could train anyone else.
I don't know about the other 30 states, but in the Illinois university retirement system, workers do not make contributions to social security, and of course do not receive social security. In addition, the workers contribute half of the money into the fund, plus can and do invest their own money into their pension when transfering their pensions from out of state. The idea behind the constitutional protection is to prevent politicians from using the pension contributions of retired workers for other purposes.
Drug "felons" like Barack Obama and Michael Phelps and George Bush and Bill Clinton and half the Illinois General Assembly and half the US Congress would not be better off if they were caught with a joint and forced into treatments centers instead of prisons. Mostly, anyway.
If we keep calling them drug "offenders" when begging for uneccessary, wasteful marijuana treatment tax dollars but calling them drug "felons" when protecting enforcement and prison dollars, of course the public won't want drug "felons" released. But we are talking about drug felons exactly like Barack Obama and Michael Phelps. Present it to the public that its a huge waste of money and does more harm than good to lock up people like Barack Obama for smoking a little pot and they will believe that.
In fact take a cue from the Netherlands, where fewer of their children and young adults use marijuana than in the US, and decriminalize and tax and regulate the sales of small amounts of it. Big, big, big, huge budget solving money right there in one swoop.
I would like to clarify a couple of your other observations. SURS (and TRS) members don't "pay half" of the cost of their pensions; over the long run, the split is more like 20% each for the member and the State, with most of the revenue, or about 60% coming from earnings on investments. This is where TRS' and SURS' strong investment performance over the years reduces the burden on the other two sources.
Secondly, although it's a good deal for the member, the "investment" in service purchases in most cases is a loser for the pension fund for reasons only an actuary would care about.
Under Rod CMS has grown by leaps and bounds.
We now lease all computers and office funiture from CMS. Most all this was paid for before Rod came into power but now CMS owns it all and we make monthly payments on our own property.
Go figure.
Seriously, we're going to have to look harder at schools (the idea about forcing k-8 and high school districts in the same town to consolidate is good, provided you don't have multiple k-8s feeding into the high school. Then it will get ugly.).
Treating potheads, rather than sending them to prison, is a better fiscal and human capitol policy. However, it will deprive certain politicians (I'm thinking of the former state's attorney in my county) of cheap points at election time, so it won't fly, and more's the loss to everyone else. >:-[
Taking a fine scapel to the tops of all state agencies is an excellent idea, and probably will fail for that reason. (we all know what happens when you mess with patronage...)
Moving almost all governmental functions back to Springpatch is a good idea, and might almost be doable, thanks to Blago. I would be willing to bet we can get a good price, even in this downer economy, for the Thompson Center and several other state bldgs. Those who gripe about how boring Springpatch is should be required to do something to liven it up (open stores, restaurants, performing arts, etc.).
Eliminate townships? Works great in Cook County and places like Champaign (co-terminous township City of Champaign township), but I grew up in rural Southeastern Illinois, and there are places in this state where townships perform essential government functions and are worthwhile to their residents. Can the legislature make that distinction when they approach this issue?
Sorry, Rich, probably not doing my best tonight...
Okay, if I only get to pick one, it's got to be either payroll or pensions. Yes, pensions have been neglected for too long, but they are not the most immediate need. Since not all state employees retire at exactly the same time, 100 percent funding is not an absolute necessity. Getting back on a long-term plan for boosting the funding percentage a couple of years down the road (maybe after the economy has recovered a bit) and sticking to it might be a good idea. Also, now is the time to consider things like raising the retirement age or changing the formula. Most workers my age and younger (mid-40s) assume they will have to work past 65 anyway and are not counting on either Social Security or pensions to be around when they do retire.
As for payroll... yikes, we would be talking about one out of every four state employees getting canned, or else cutting everyone's pay by one-fourth, if we really wanted to get rid of a billion just there. I will admit that some cuts have to be made there if the public is going to accept enough of a tax increase to decently fund anything. If it should turn out to be my job (which doesn't pay a whole heck of a lot) that gets cut, well, c'est la vie.
A total reformatting of state workforce is called for. Brainstorming for starters:
Reduce state hours to 4 day work weeks and cut hours from 7.5 hrs. to 5 hrs daily for all but essential positions. Rotate workforce to cover essential days/hours.
Offer job sharing - many state employees would be more than willing to take a cut in pay to work half time. This was tried in the 80s and very popular.
Reality...Many employees are working part-time in full time positions. This is done by taking vacation and personal time weekly or just filling the excess time looking busy. Assess which jobs could be made part-time and offer it up. Same as above, many would be willing to work a three-day vs. five-day week.
Automate services like entitlement programs casework.
Like the fed. gov does for at least one day(if not more) a week... allow work from home to cut overhead costs.
Get rid of excessive layers of management.
Put a $100,000 cap on merit salaries like Obama just did. Attempt to do same with Union positions.
Get rid of non union mid-management positions. Have staff report directly to top management to cut excess.
Consolidate office locations. State is paying rent at too many locations with excess space in key building .. ex. Harris Bldg...
Get rid of blackberry brigades for mid management. It's obnoxious seeing all these mid managers carrying cells many having their personal and state phones sit side by side in meeting ... just in case the boss needs to reach them. What are landlines for. We don't need both in these tough times.
Reduce benefit time for new employees. Where else does one get 10 vacation, 12 sick days and 3 personal days at the start of employment? Vacation jumps to 25 days a year at max. Nice but come on.
This is fun and I could go on and on. It's time State government structure is brought into the 21st century.
But presumably that change would involve labor troubles.
Ideally state education funding would involve actual classroom instruction, rather than causing collective action problems through a one-sided coverage of pensions.