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At this point, she kills Governor Blagojevich in a match-up, and she would be the favorite to win the governorship.
Blaggo probably will not be eligible
The biggest question is why would anyone want this pile of *(&*%(%(*%*( ?
Like a lot of people, I questioned her experience and her political backing, but she has proved me wrong. People will vote for her DESPITE the fact that her name is Madigan, rather than because her name is Madigan.
The other big question is will Obama's seat be filled and by whom? My money is that Obama will be President, VP, or at the least a major cabinet officer.
Birkett (R)/ Jim Durkin (R) or Tom Dart(D) / or someone else?
Blago is currently on his farewell tour just like George Ryan did during his last term. Instead of letting murders off of their death sentences they were given life. Blago wants to be known for "universal healthcare". Maybe someone on his upcoming Federal jury pool was sick and could not afford the treatment / hospital stay.
Can we all say sympathy vote, did not work too well for George!
Please.
If the feds are truly closing in, then Lisa has nothing to worry about. Otherwise -
the General Assembly should appropriate the bond projects to the Comptroller's Office rather than under the Governor, so that he cannot claim credit for any of them - even if he deserves none.
Anywho, Lisa got in on her pop's coat tails and has not screwed it up, she is likeable and will win easily given the electoral make up in this goofy state.
Perhaps most bloggers here have become exhausted by Blagojevich and would like to vote for either a dull white guy like Hynes, or a dull white gal like Madigan, but don't expect all voters in Illinois to feel similarly.
Obama needs executive office experience before he is taken seriously by a majority of US voters as a presidential candidate. He knows this. 2008 has been a great trial run for him. He needs to be governor of Illinois.
So, I don't care what Lisa Madigan wants. At this point, whatever Barak Obama wants is what will decide her fate. After he bows out after the 2008 Democratic convention, he will start planning his gubernatorial run in 2010. Obama will be hard to beat in 2016. Remember, Obama will only be 55 years old then.
BTW, Vanilla, people called Edgar a dull white guy too, and he did pretty well.
But Obama, Hynes, Lisa all have a better shot on this very day than Blago. We should not, however, underestimate his campaigning abilities. That's the only thing he's good at is dog & pony shows.
The attorney general has all over a lot of issues, predatory lending, meth, pedophiles.
In ercent months, the AG scored a win for consumers on the ATT/cable issue.
Hope that refreshes the memory.
Going from running for Prez to running for guv seems like a huge comedown though. I'd see Obama
holding out for a national post, although he and Hillary haven't been that congenial lately. And she's going to win.
If Lisa Madigan chooses to run for Gov, I'd put my money on Tom Dart for AG. Now there's the kind of public servant we need in statewide office.
Both the Attorney General and legislative jobs are more policy, less practice.
That’s why it seems unlikely Obama would run for Governor. Does he look like a guy who wants to spend a lot of time discussing how much rust is on a bridge?
What about Pat Quinn. He has a good shot at being the incumbent governor at that point. I asked that chimp on life support whether it is likely the Feds will indict Blago and he said "count on it, now give me another banana." Do you know how hard it is to find a banana near Lincoln Park Zoo? I had to walk a mile and then back.
If Quinn is the incumbent gov who takes him on in a primary?
Now let's say Quinn isn't governor. Let's say Blago doesn't run. Then it is potentially Hynes versus Madigan versus Quinn. With President Obama supporting Hynes. Wait, it isn't President Obama. It is Obama running for governor.
Now as to the original question Madigan could defeat Blago. Assuming she had a one on one race. I don't assume that. I assume that chimp on life support will run as a independent democrat and garner some lakefront liberal support and animal lover votes. It's gonna get hairy.
Objective Dem, Pete Wilson became Governor of California after being Senator. So did Dirk Kempthorne of Idaho (admittedly not prominent). While it's true that Bayh and Voinovich, for example, went the other way, they were term limited and are frustrated with the relative irrelevance of the job. The only reason Barack is a prominent Senator is that he's running for President.
Interesting point about Hynes and Sec State. In your scenario, who is senator? I disagree on AG. Tom Dart would walk over Harmon in a primary even if Harmon has Madigan's support. Dart has Daley and has better state-wide exposure.
LM has at least worked at what is in her jurisdiction, but has strayed out of bounds a few times. I give her credit for at least taking her job seriously.
Sen. Obama has the perfect job right now. He gets to talk and point, but he does not actually have to do anything. H would be crazy to move to a position where he actually has to do something, since he has not been a doer in the Illinois and national politics I have seen. He could skulk into an invisible cabinet position though.....
The scary thing about being the next Illinois Governor is that many things HAVE to get done. Is shaking up the status quo possible at all? If Illinois were a corporationm I would advise them to declare bankruptcy and start fresh.
Obama aside, I think Dan Hynes is the best qualified candidate for Governor - it isn't evn a close call. Lisa has been the best attorney general that we have ever had. Her Democratic and Republican predecessors seemed mediocre to me.
The ideal for me would be Obama on the national ticket in 2008, Madigan as U.S. Senator, and Dan Hynes as Governor. The Governor would never appoint Lisa Madigan Senator, as they reportedly loathe each other. Governor Quinn might appoint Lisa or Dan as Senator to divert a challenger.
I think both Dan Hynes or Lisa Madigan would defeat Governor Blagojevich or Governor Quinn handily in a primary face-off. I consider a contest between Governor Quinn and either Madigan or Hynes as more competitive than a contest against Blagojevich. I say this because I believe the Governor has burned all his political bridges and will not have any newspaper editorial support. An African American candidate, like Meeks, would seal Blago's fate.
What I really prefer not to see is a gubernatorial primary race between Dan Hynes and Lisa Madigan. Loyalty and my strong personal conviction that Dan is actually better qualified to be Governor than Lisa would compel me to support Hynes. It's a choice that I don't want to make since I like and respect them both.
choice for governor; my first choice is anyone
else." The chimp might not be a bad choice.
I think Obama will secure the Democratic nomination, but even if he doesn't, he's not going to run for Governor. Running for Governor takes him out of the national spotlight and out of the national fundraising picture. It may be the traditional path to the White House, but Obama's made it clear he's not going to sit back and wait his turn. He'll stay in D.C., where his stature as a powerbroker will grow, if for no other reason than his fundraising ability. And if he doesn't win the nomination this time, he'll run again in 4-8 years.
Locally, Hynes is a strong sleeper particularly with the state continues into a financial crunch. Who else would have his knowledge of where the bucks go? He continually makes sense.
LM has done a good job as AG but also needs some more time. More good moves in tough situations would really help her. I would not say she is the best ever, but would it realy matter? You can bet the shoulder taps would be out strong to repay long standing debts and allegiences for past favors. "Vote to play" would come on strong.
Unless Rod pulls something huge out of the hat and does a believeable mea culpa, he is history. The nationals will have little use for him with the baggage. Locally, he will always have supporters, but he actually has to complete some major task beside saying nice stuff that make him sound like a good guy. Pretty hard to get past GRT, health insurance, burned bridges, and a general appearance of not really wanting to work in the trenches or with the other leaders.
You people are perfectly willing to hand over the reigns of the executive branch to the daughter of the Speaker of the Illinois House? Rod is bad, so let's turn all of Illinois over to the Madigans!
Give the Madigans more power and watch them as the pick and choose who gets to serve in Springfield. The flow of control of contracts & patronage, when the primaries are held....
Sheesh, why don't we just turn Illinois over to Hugo Chavez?
2) As much fun as Pat is, he cannot raise money. Never has. Never will. As such, even as the incumbent, it will be difficult for him to run in a contested primary for gov.
3) If Lisa were to run for Gov and win, the Speaker would step down. He would have to. Not have to because the constitution says so, but just have to because as strong as she is, the issue would dog her throughout her campaign.
Suddenly all manner of collusion with her Dad that has happened since she's been AG would come out. It would be ugly. For as much as they might get offended if you raise the issue with either of them, they simply have too much collective control and play too many tag team games already.
The Speaker now has one overriding goal - get Lisa elected Gov. That's one of the reasons the Speaker pushed up our primary date - get Barack out of the way.
All for naught - Jay Hoffman has doomed any hopes he had of being elected to statewide office or Speaker. His best asset was his strong relationships with fellow House members. As Blagojevich's hatchet man, many of those relationships are toast now.
Secondly, lets not forget that Hoffman is anti-choice and anti-gun control. That's not going to help him win a Democratic Primary, so unless he's slated and has no primary opponent, big weaknesses.
Third, Hoffman has to carry all of the Blagojevich baggage, including support for the Gross Receipts Tax. Not good for the primary or general election.
If Hoffman runs for statewide office, and that's a big if, look for him to run for Attorney General. And expect a Madigan/Dart ticket to mop the floor with a Blagojevich/Hoffman ticket.
Jesse White will run for re-election, but I wouldn't rule Clayborne out for Lt. Governor. Still, I think Pat Quinn is unbeatable if he stays put.
I would think Lisa could beat Rod in a primary. I'm not even going to speculate about anyone else running because I really don't see Dan Hynes or Alexi moving out of their current spots. I do think Jay Hoffman will run for Secretary of State, and I hope he loses if he runs. I would also think that, if Lisa runs for governor, Don Harmon would rush at the chance, but I think Jim Durkin could give him a run for his money.
I do want to point out that I personally believe Bill Brady has a good shot to win the governor's race in 2010 - if he decides to run, of course. The Dems could easily implode and God only knows what the next three years will bring. Remember, Jim Ryan was a good AG, too, and he fizzled out in the governor's race.
From a national scope, look at the troubles Eliot Spitzer is having in New York while he has transitioned from AG to guv. I wonder if he's now regretting his move from "Wall Street crimefighter" and "organized crime buster" to actually having to deal with the legislature on a daily basis and having political adversaries going for your knees (not literally!). It will probably make Lisa stop and think - especially since Spitzer was, at one point, the most well-known AG in the country.
As much as I loathe Hairboy, nobody should underestimate his campaigning skills. I like Lisa's odds against him head-to-head, but it's by no means a foregone conclusion. Blago will take the Lisa-Will-Raise-Your-Taxes meme and hammer it via the airwaves into every skull in Illinois. (Recall, her dad just floated the idea of an income tax hike ...)
First, I agree that MJM will step down if Lisa runs for governor. I've heard from some of my Dem pals that he won't serve past 2010, anyway.
Second, Jay Hoffman can raise a ton of cash. He has a million dollar account and hasn't had a tough opponent for state rep since he beat Ron Stephens. If he has that much $$$ now, imagine what a statewide race would do for his coffers. And if Rod appoints him in the event of Jesse White's retirement, he can run as an "incumbent".
That's exactly right Rich! And until somebody (like the press) can get through to the voters in Cook county it doesn't matter what the folks in the other 101 counties think, because for some @#$# reason they think Blago's great. Articles that make the front of downstate papers about Blago and his corrupt group don't even make the Chicago papers every time, and if they do, it's buried. Again, until someone can get through to Cook Co., Blago will be voted in again. Count on it.
Why on earth would you say Jim Ryan was a good AG? Jim Ryan was a very mediocre AG with few if any accomplishments to speak of. I mean he ran his staff ok, and certainly better than Roland, but gee, can't we set the bar a tad higher than that!
As to Bill Brady winning for Gov in 2010. You are 100% certifiable on that one. As much as the Dems are a laughingstock of infighting now, other than Tom Cross, the R's are still in disarray. Sorry but your Brady dreams will have to wait. IL has become a Dem state for the foreseeable future.
You are waaaayyyyy off base on this one. I live in Chicago and there are constantly headlines and editorials about Rod's problems including today. Rod may be slightly more popular up here (and I'm sure he still has a negative approval rating), but that's like saying George Bush is popular in Indiana because his approval rating is 40 instead of 30. He's still very unpopular no matter how you look at it.
He is not feeling the love from here!
JOB WANTED
Illinois Democrat with executive experience seeks a VP slot on 2008 presidential ticket. I am tall, attractive, and come with a rakishly handsome hair helmet. I have young photogenic family with children small enough to use as press shield.
Do you need someone dedicated to socialized health care? I made national news when I shut down Illinois to demonstrate my dedication. Need a fund-raiser? I have an enormous campaign war chest and have raised over $2000 an hour - while serving as a "ethical reform" governor.
This Gemini likes jogging through parks, dancing to Elvis, watching John Wayne movies, cold chicken and heated driveways. I am often fashionably late, but always manscaped and coiffed. I love strong women from Park Ridge, especially those with White House experience who loved Goldwater in 1964.
Serious inquiries only. NO FREAKS - (got that Kucinich?) Call my Chicago number, not my Springfield one.
I really do think a Republican has a shot at the race in 2010 - unless it's Obama. Just because Lisa and Dan get good press does not mean a Dem will just waltz into the office.
Jim Ryan got faulted for inaction on a number of fronts including the failure to investigate any of George's corruption. Frankly, below gov, the constitutionals have a pretty low bar to be considered good.
1) Run a professional office with reasonably responsive staff. Make sure everything you are constitutionally responsible to do gets done without drama.
2) Minimize corruption and keep the hacks in positions where they can't do too much harm.
3) Identify one or two important issues at which you can score victories.
4) Don't let too many things you could do with your office pass you by.
5) Don't be too partisan.
If you can do those five things, and you don't bite the hand that fed you, you will be thought of highly and can advance up the chain. Did I leave anything out?
"Leroy - Mike Madigan will most assuredly announce that he is stepping down if Lisa is elected Governor."
And who will he handpick to be the next speaker after he is gone? Oh I assume he will not have any say in it whatsoever, right?
That was one of your very best pieces of propaganda, YDD.
I apologize for my ignorance. but who is Clayborne and why would he/she be a good choice for Lt. Gov. If he/she is a downstater, I am not a snob (St. Louis native with downstate family roots), just not familiar with him/her. Please inform/educate me. Thanks!
My money would probably be on Dart winning an open AG slot against all comers, Democrats and Republicans. I don't know him personally/never met him, but everyone I know, including the editorial pages,think very highly of him. he appears to be another Democratic "up and comer."
Hynes steps up criticism of governor's budget actions
Last Updated 8/7/2007 1:10:45 PM
The Illinois comptroller is stepping up his criticism of Gov. Rod Blagojevich over the state budget crisis.
Comptroller Dan Hynes has already called the governor a hypocrite. Now he says Blagojevich is insensitive to people's pain and is playing politics with their lives.
Hynes complained Tuesday that Blagojevich has not acted on legislation giving money to the families of slain soldiers and to hospitals that treat the poor. The bill has been sitting on the governor's desk for nearly two months.
The legislation also includes money for legislative pay raises. Hynes says the governor should veto that section if he objects to it.
There was no immediate response from the governor's office.
Cynic, we'll agree to disagree. There is a lot of corruption and chicanery that goes untried and unpunished. Jim Ryan is not the only one.
While I think Lisa Madigan, would do a better job that Rod, let's not count our chickens before they hatch.
Right now, I would say it would be a 50-50 matchup at best for Lisa Madigan. Hard to beat an incumbent.
I think her prospects for 2010 are great, but so much depends on Obama and what else Blago does to ruin himself. She can only control what she does, and everyone agrees she has done an excellent job as Attorney General and that bodes well for her next election regardless.
Blago has a ton of money, true. He'd be tough to shout over when it comes to TV time. But he got to be gov the way Carol Mosely Braun became senator. Won a divided primary and took on a lackluster GOP opponent.
I'm not saying she would absolutely win, but I'd put my money on her.
And why would Obama come back to be governor, especially if he had a primary challenge? His status as a national leader would plummet. He'd be yesterday's news. But in D.C., he'd be a rock star as long as he keeps out of trouble. No way he goes back to the provincial bickering now.
You can only flourish on Oprah-like lectures and homilies for so long.
The only sure winner in the Obama campaign will be David Axelrod, who is making a fortune.
In the early 90s, two of the Governor's first bills introduced were term limits for the legislature (8 years) and constitutional officers (2 terms). In a SJR article yesterday (I believe), the Governor reiterated support for term limits and recall elections.
If the Governor beleivers his hyperbole, then he will NOT seek re-election.
Rich - The next time you see the Governor, ask him if he will honor his words and not run.
And once the millionaire gets in the race, won't some Black candidate think s/he has a shot by winning 85% of the Black vote, plus a little bit from somewhere else?
And in four candidate field dominated by Chicago-area candidates, won't it be attractive for a downstater to jump into the race?
Just speculating....
Who has more impressive foreign policy credentials? Rudy Giuliani? HRC? John Edwards?
Not only did Obama have the sense not to buy into the greatest foreign policy blunder of U.S. history, but his predictions for how it would go wrong were very on target.
What do you mean by this? No Illinois Attorney General has ever become Governor, although many have tried.
They dont't call NAAG the National Association of Aspiring Governors for nothing.
Lisa cant compete with Rods cash or Obamas popularity in a bitter primary
Lisa Madigan, whats she thinking?
"YDD, Obama will keep his national ID even if he were elected governor of Illinois. Many governors are nationally recognized..."
"Jay Hoffman can raise a ton of cash. He has a million dollar account and hasn’t had a tough opponent for state rep since he beat Ron Stephens."
I bet less than one percent of the country can name four current Governors besides their own.
In fact, except for Schwarzenegger, who else is "nationally recognized"?
Yes, Hoffman is a great fundraiser, perhaps one of the best natural fundraisers in the Illinois House. But a close look at Hoffman's D-2's will show you that he's relied heavily on his job as chair of the House Transportation Chair to raise much of that money - from state contractors and building trades unions.
Hoffman has also benefited strongly from his proximity to Blagojevich when it comes to fundraising. Prior to Blagojevich being elected Governor in 2002, Hoffman had a balance of $149K in his account.
With the smart money betting on Lisa Madigan to take out Blagojevich in 2010, who's going to be betting on Hoffman?
Leroy says:
"And who will he handpick to be the next speaker after he [Madigan] is gone? Oh I assume he will not have any say in it whatsoever, right?
That was one of your very best pieces of propaganda, YDD."
Madigan will certainly have a lot of indirect influence over whom the next Speaker will be, but nobody will be "handpicking" anybody, although lots of folks will probably have veto authority.
Mayor Daley will likely discourage Chicago Reps from backing anyone from outside of Cook County. Personal PAC will discourage pro-choice lawmakers from selecting an anti-choice Speaker. The AFL-CIO and individual unions will have a short list of people they can't stand. The Black Caucus and Latino Caucus will put the keebosh on any racebaiters.
Seniority and fundraising ability obviously have a role. As do personality, political skills and an understanding of the legislature and the process.
Who will the frontrunners be? Everyone thought it would be Tom Dart, but they didn't stick around. I'd lay off making any bets right now. With Madigan poised to pick up six more seats in 2008, it could be a very different caucus.
Thanks Rich....appreciate being put in our place. We don't get enough of this from the Chicago pols already. You can never hear enough times that your vote is useless.
And I'm not saying Mr. Smiley Jay Hoffman will make a great or even a proficient SOS. But I think he could raise the necessary funds and there is no guarantee that the GOP will run anyone decent. Who's to say that Blago won't hit up some of his donors and buddies on Jay's behalf?
Just Saying, good point. Lisa outraised Joe Birkett by a TON in 2002 and did not win decisively. A tough primary opponent could spell doom for her.
about Senator Jim Meeks getting into it? I was
hoping he would run as an Indie last time.
Jim Ryan is a good man and was an excellent Attorney General.
Both of Rod's campaigns were based on lies.
While it makes a good deal of sense for Hillary to pick him as VP, campaign-wise, she's going to be thinking past that to the governing process. Based on what we know of her psychology, there's a very good case that she personally wouldn't pick him. The Clintons have this thing about loyalty, rewarding those who show it and punishing those who don't... And precisely because he's so eager for the top spot, Hillary would frown on having him as her sidekick for 4-8 years.
My thinking is now the only way she'd pick him is if he does so well in the primary, she pretty much HAS to pick him (see: Kerry, Edwards).
Of course, people read WAY too much into these late-summer polls. Obama can easily still win this thing.
The people that "really run Illinois" would much rather have him stay as Senator (or be VP or POTUS) than have him become Governor or Mayor.
Consider the impact of the availability of a Green primary ballot, in addition to a nonpartisan, Democratic, and Republican in 2010. Those who vote a Green primary ballot will not be able to vote a Democratic or Republican ballot, so this may affect the makeup of the primary voting pool for the "corporate sponsored" parties.