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DuMont pressed him to repeat the sentence, but the Speaker only repeated the second half. What I took from that was sort of a subtle opening from Madigan, him saying, "I'm not going to encourage anyone to run, and I'm certainly on G-Rod's side if anyone asks. But if someone out there wants to stir some shit up, I'm not going to openly work against him."
Then again, maybe the Speaker was just expressing an opinion.
As of today, I'm with Anonymous #1 that there will be no primary challenger; however, if the budget goes into the crapper this session, all bets are off.
This situation creates a dilemna for disaffected Dems like myself. Blagojevich is a disapointment for Dems (in terms of policy, accessibility, and even patronage). The question is whether we're better off with G-Rod for 4 more years or with a Republican. Let's face it, the core base of the Democratic Party in Illinois was better off under George Ryan. I know a lot of Dems are waiting to see who the Republicans will nominate; but I know very few Dems who will enthusiastically support Blagojevich.
It's too bad Pat Quinn has suddenly decided to be an adult. It would have been fun to see him challenge his own "boss."
She's talented enough to do the job and she's an appealing campaigner.
She'd run as suburban business owner and of course a Black woman. She'd shoot for 51% of the female vote, 51% of the suburban vote and 70% of the Black vote. If she hits two out of these three wickets she'd beat Blagojevich.
1) More casinos
2) Teachers union & public school funding
3) Ohare expansion
4) State employees
Lots of money to be made from these groups.
An earlier post stated Madigan already has publically announced his support of The Rod's re-election efffort. But many of us know Madigan frequently says one thing publically and does something completely different behind the scenes. When Madigan says he supports The Rod Part II, why should I believe him?
Why would Madigan tell one of his followers to challenge The Rod? Because he can. Madigan might do it just to force The Rod to use up some of that campaign cash or just to dirty him up. Maybe Madigan would hoist up a challenger just to ruin The Rod's day.
It probably won't happen, but I won't be surprised (or disappointed) if it does.
Of course, Madigan wouldn't support anyone he couldn't keep on a leash.
Serious students of Illinois politics could come up with 20 Democrats more qualified than Blago to be governor in 2002, but Blagojevich got elected.
And who can't come up with 20 Republicans more qualified to be POTUS in 2000 than Bush?
What are the odds of her getting at least 50% of the suburban vote? (20-50%?)
What are the odds she can get 50% of the female vote? (30-60%?)
What are the odds she can get 70% of the Black vote? (40-70%)
If achieving two of these three categories is enough for a win and these estimate odds are right, Yarbrough's got 21.2% chance of beating Blagojevich, on the low end.
Whether you think Yarbrough is everything you'd want in your ideal candidate or not she does have three natural constituencies where she can get votes that other potential challengers, like Hynes and Devine, don't have.
Lots of people want Blagojevich challenged. The funders have to get with a candidate that has a shot.
Do Democrats want Blagojevich defeated?
Who has a better shot against Blagojevich in the primary than Yarbrough?
Can you name twenty Democrats that have a better shot at beating Blagojevich in the Dem Primary? Five? Two?
As for Franks... Well, you'll have to subscribe to the fax for that info.
Lauren Beth Gash
Dorothy Brown
Is Corrinne Wood's cancer still in remission? She made noises about wanting back in the game in 2004, right? And the GOP has pretty much said she's not welcome to play for Team Republican. What keeps her from cutting a deal with Madigan and taking Blagojevich one-on-one in the primary?
I think the reality is that 06 will be relatively mundane on the D side. What will be more interesting is 2010, both sides have some real stars ready (and by that time) raring to go.
Which do you want? Four more years of saying "Man, I wish the Guv would do X differently," or four years of vetoes and loss of patronage rights?
Rod isn't perfect. Far from it. But as we stand here tonight, a Democratic administration is a near certainty until at least 2010. A Primary challenge is just about the only thing short of indictment that could change that. Don't screw it up, Dems.
Rep. John Bradley of Marion. One Legislative election under his belt and he thinks he's "God"
I generally agree with the idea of holding your nose and voting for Blagojevich. But then he or his staff do something that is just so stupid, or so offensive, that I wonder why I should even bother.
After all, Illinois had a line of Republican Governors since 1976, and we still have a pretty decent record. It's not as if the Blagojevich admnistration has fundamentally changed the direction of the state. So, a GOP moderate? Might not be so bad.
Isn't it sad that someone who has voted a straight Democratic party ticket since 1988 has to ask that question. (Full disclosure: I did not have a moral dilemna in 1998 with Poshard since I was living in a different state that year.)
Poshard is slinging deals with Blago, so likely won't run for governor again.
There has been some speculation (even by Rich, I think?) that Blago's people might be encouraging Poshard to run in the primary for Lieutenant Governor. The thought being, if he won, that might help Blago with the southern vote in the general election.
I've created a thread to discuss who should be included in the polls. Please visit Blogging Blagojevich's Blunders and nominate candidates (or argue for candidates not to be included).
Sidenote: I've often wondered if the Dem Party knew what an idiot Rod was when they decided he should be a candidate. I asked someone that once and they said, "Sure we did, but we thought he'd surround himself with better people."
Vallas, by the way, was 100 PERCENT INTERESTED IN MOVING BACK FROM PHILLY to challange Rod. Many key figures in his last campaign were ready to geer up for `06, until they talked to a couple of election lawyers and found out there was no way around the residency requirement.
Dan Hynes for Cook Cty. Board Pres? Nobody is going to force Stroger out except for Stroger - or the Mayor. And it makes no sense for Daley to ditch him at this point. Besides, wouldn't Danny have to get in line behind Houlihan, Sheahan, John Daley, etc.?
Interesting that Tom Hynes just quit as 19th Ward Committeeman. Does that make Danny more of his own man and less of a product of the "old way"? And does that make him a more attractive "reform" candidate for Gov against Rod? Maybe. He can either run now or wait in line behind Lisa.
If LaHood is the Republican nominee we may see enough of the central Illinois swing voters go Republican that we'll have a new Governor who will actually use the patronage system in Springfield instead of putting half the town out of a job. People should remember that downstate voters are a lot more likely to split their ticket than Cook or Collar County voters. LaHood is a real threat if Democrats don't come up with a new candidate.
Danny is perceived as an overly cautious (almost timid,) politician following his father's carefully crafted script. Taking on Rod would represent a bold, daring and unexpected political transformation -- and I think a lot of people who are kind of cool towards Hynes now would really warm up to him. The media would love it.
I'm sure he doesn't want to risk losing two races in a row, which would effectively kill his political career. But if I were advising Danny, I'd encourage him to ignore his political DNA and go for it. His Dad's retirement as 19th Ward committeeman provides a symbolic opportunity for him to be perceived as his own man. He can seize the moment and try to catch lightening in a bottle, or he can sit back and wait for his turn, becoming the state's longest serving Comptroller in the process.
Im neither here nor there on hynes, but lets face reality -- a profile in courage he is not. Stay in the comptrollers office and wait for the critical mass to swoop you into your next position -- dont take a risk because you cant handle it. youre a good comptroller -- keep at it.