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© 2009 DISQUS
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You wanna explain that please?
It frees up almost all of the friends of Rod money for legal defense. Gets him out of town and the chance to propose big ideas without having to figure out how to implement them.
If he is charged with something it would be easier to stay in power (see Ted Stevens) than what would happen if it happens while he is sitting governor.
Also he can do it in a way that makes him look like the good guy.
I am stepping down to become our US Senator so things can move forward in Illinois, I have loved being your governor and wanted to continue. However because of Mike Madigan I can not continue.
It is really the only way he can ever hope to rehabilitate his image. Spend some time in Washington, come back and talk a big game. Who would challenge him in a Senate Primary? He would have a big step up in name recon and that would help under federal fundraising rules.
I think it's quite possible that some of the more prominent names who want the seat will turn down an appointment by Blago to avoid being connected with him. They can then run in the 2010 primary against "Rod's senator."
Nope. Sneed has reported it (endlessly, and without attribution), but I don't ever recall Obama saying it. You got a link to a direct quote?
Seriously. She can self-finance. She is black, which would appease the Sneed readers. And she is a close friend of Obama's. Not to mention her strong social justice background. She has often said she doesn't want to enter politics. But this could be her shot.
If she declines, then I would say Sheila Nix.
She is a natural leader, knows the Senate, and is well familiar with what it will take to get the Obama healthcare plan passed in D.C. She also knows how to get thing done for people (tm).
So that leaves harder groups to organize or money. Schakowsky has strong ties with progressive liberals and so she might fit the bill as someone who can deliver votes for him--or someone he thinks can deliver votes for him. Then there are big funders who always wanted to play Senator.
If I were advising him...well first I'd tell him to give it up. But say we get beyond that delusion, I'd have to go with Schakowsky because of the potential appointees she is the most likely to sway some voters towards him.
The problem with the Jesse White idea is two fold. First Jesse has said he won't take it. Second, how does it help Rod? Some amorphous feel good feelings from the black community doesn't mean he gets reelection support.
Appointing himself would help him as he'd leave the mess he helped (along with Madigan, Jones and the dems) create in springfield. No need to worry about impeachment, etc, He will not win re-election for Gov, so just start over. He'd only have Fitz at his heels.
Alan Keyes is black! He may actually win an elected office
I wasn't the author of the original comment, but I will take a stab at it...
Blago appointing an African-American doesn't give him automatic support from the Black community.
But Obama is the only African American in the Senate. The Black community will not want to lose that seat. Therefore, while the appointment of an African American won't gain him support, the appointment of a White person could cause the Black community to actively oppose Blago.
Let's put it this way: If he appoints an African American, he doesn't gain or lose support. But if he appoints a white person, there will UNDOUBTEDLY be grumblings in the Black community over losing the seat, and they WILL harbor resentment towards Blago.
=="In all honesty, I don’t think anyone really helps him, whether it’s for governing (which I don’t think he’s all that terribly interested in ) or for re-election"==
I think that's the best statement yet.
Politically, Blagojevich is a Dead Man Walking, according to the poll numbers.
I don't know anyone who's ever come back from 15% job approval ratings to win a contested primary, let alone re-election.
If I'm wrong, I hope someone will correct me.
Because of the public's cynicism toward the governor, ANYONE picked will be viewed as a crass political move. And ANYONE picked by the governor will be tainted by their association with him.
Given that, Blagojevich's smartest move may be to pick someone who agrees not to seek re-election, setting up an openly contested Senate Primary in 2010, at the same time as his. Creating a divided battle there could draw resources away from his primary challengers.
Alternately, he could say he'll rely on Obama for recommendations, arguing that we need a U.S. Senator who will work closely and well with the new president. The Obama Seal of Approval would insulate his choice from criticism. Making a choice based "on the merits" instead of "on the politics" might give Rod a chance to redefine himself, and being seen as working with Obama might be the one miracle that can help his poll numbers.
I've figured he goes with JJJ or a Latino option in hopes of morphing the non-white candidate in an all white primary battle. But Arch makes a good case for Shakowsky as a play for liberal votes.
OneMan makes the first plausible case for a self appointment I've seen.
But nothing can actually get him voters. His best hope is to bait everyone and their mother into running against him so his meager support is enough to survive. That shouldn't be too hard with everyone wanting him gone.
If anything, whoever he picks will hurt him. The pick will be viewed cynically no matter who it is. It will be seen as rewarding a supporter or sending an opponent away.
The smartest move for the Gov would be to let Obama pick his successor and for Rod to make it clear that the choice was Obama's.
ON the other hand, maybe Pinocchio shouuld appoint his legal nemesis, Patrick Fitzgerald, to get him off the Governor's case. Many politicians and their cronies would heave a sigh of relief. They might be willing to contribute to Blago's legal defense fund as a result of this innovative legal strategy.
The strategic choice is Jesse: puts a dem in SOS as an incumbent which is the stronger way to fight and keep the office dem. Puts jesse out of the running as possible spoiler or contender in a gubernatorial primary as well. Jesse is liked across all lines and would comport himself well for a short stint in DC.
But I think what Rod will do is send Emil, as more payback and to have a friend in DC besides Wyma.
JJJ has been fighting with the Powers that Be on the South Side for years -- first the Shaws, now Beavers and Stroger. He's clearly building a personal power base.
Pick from one side, you might anger the other.
Let's also remember StateWideTom's lame radio ad was paid for in part by SpeakerDenny who is one of Blagoof's biggest enablers.
From John Ralston, the equiv or better of Rich Miller in Nevada...
===In the urban counties, which represents about 85 percent of the vote, the Democrats could well have close to a 100,000-voter lead over the GOP by the close of early voting Friday. Unless the independents (16 percent in turnout so far) are overwhelmingly going for John McCain, which seems unlikely, Barack Obama has a chance to win Clark and Washoe by enough votes to win the state, unless the GOP Election Day turnout so overwhelms the Ds as to make up the difference -- an almost impossible task.===
via <a href="http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/the_daily_ralston_gop_faces_al.php
Thanks.
Rod is to going to try to appoint Patrick Fitzgerald with a big blessing and push from Obama.
If Fitzgerald declines, Obama will remove him as US Attorney as soon as possible, and Obama will take the small PR hit, because right now the national press will gloss over it in the honeymoon period of his admin. The PR hit is small compared to leaving Fitz in place and him further leveraging Rezko to spill on all the inner workings that are going on in our fair state. Obama, Daley, and Blago need to stop Fitz before he goes any deeper and starts publicaly hitting bone. These guys are in unprecidented territory. Lastly they don't want the national focus on the goings on in Illinois in a couple of years once Obama starts screwing up and it becomes profitable to start paying attention to this stuff. Whitewater is down right provincial to the inner workings of the Chicago machine.
If Obama is successful in this, a deal will be set so that Obama will pardon Tony Rezko in Jan'13 in return for keeping his mouth shut and doing his time. Omerta. Rezko's choices are he can testify for Fitz and burn the combine, or he can keep his mouth shut, and President Obama will ride to the resucue and take care of him 4 years from Dec 1. If you were Tony and Barak which would you choose?
Tony Rezko - [we'll have proof that Gov B dropped his basket]
Patrick Fitzgerald - Gov B will think that the good turn will be repaid in kind
Rich Miller - should put the lid on Cap Fax and take some heat off
Jesse Jackson Jr - hoping he can help
Dick Mell - hoping he will keep his mouth shut
Patti Blagojevich - why not? As qualified as anyone else there
If he is going to stay around and attempt to raise funds for his legal defense then I agree with nickname/anon. Appointing someone like Clayborne gives the seat to a black and leaves the seat to ?? Cullerton might think he has it locked up already so why cut a deal with consequences that you have to live with. The others might be more inclined to jump at it.
And looking at how he has taken so long to appoint people in the past, he might never pull the trigger.
There would be no honeymoon period if a Pres. Obama removed Fitz. It would cripple his administration from the start. Why should he care if the folks Fitz is after go down? He'll have bigger fish to fry.
I'm constantly amazed by those who think a Pres. Obama is going to be pre-occupied by Illinois politics. Not going to happen.
I'd go with idiot right up there with Captain A...I mean America.
The reasons are obvious!!!!!!!!!!
How bad will Keith Olberman, Rachel Maddow, and Air America protest, it Barak removes Fitz. Its too local. He has to do it early, he can survive the PR hit
Rich, just a question which poses a bigger threat to Obama, Rezko running unchecked with the Feds or the 72 hour PR hit he takes for removing Fitz?
But at this point the governor is behavior so bizarrely that I think this thread is premature at best and probably almost irrelevant. It would be an excellent thread if the governor was less unstable and behaving in a more logical manner -- no matter how corrupt or depraved that might be, at least it would be predictable.
Get over it, Word. Nobody, except maybe you, cares about that hack Fitzgerald. If Fitz had any class he would tender his resignation and let the new President pick his own team. We need a competent prosecutor in that office for a change.
I agree with a whole host of folks on here that no one really helps him. And I think the political calculation of appointing himself could backfire by ticking off Fitz so much that he ramps up the investigation and takes him down more quickly.
I think the best he can do is appoint someone who doesn't draw any additional attention to himself, and the only way I see to do that is to defer to Obama. An Obama pick might be stained a little by being appointed by Blago, but a few trips from the incumbent Prez in a blue state would shore up that candidate's standing, I think.
Past that, I think YDD might've nailed it -- someone who'll agree not to seek election for the reasons he described.
Jesse Jr. might seem the more logical, safer bet for the short term, but I think Tammy would ultimately be the better choice for the Governor and Illinois. She's content to stay in Illinois and highlights what the state does best, when it comes to veterans' rights and healthcare, and would focus on those issues in DC.
The Senate votes to seat all members. Illinois was without one of its US Senators for two years in the 1920s because the Senate voted not to seat a member appointed by Len Small. Small took umbrage and refused to appoint anyone else.
IOW, the Senate could refuse to seat RRB, and then he'd be completely outta luck. Pat Quinn would make the next appointment.
So Rod will pander to a new constituency: Latinos. There are only two Democratic Latino US Senators (one Repub). Never had one from Illinois. Latinos have had a long associaion with Rod and would not turn down the chance to add a US Senator to the fold. Luis Gutierrez would gobble up his reward. Latinos would become the new darlings for Blagojevich.
look what crap he is pulling in Pontiac, a 3rd term???? Yeah like 3-5..
I'm sure that he will pick the best person for Illinois without regard for doing homself any good.
So, my 2 cents in answering your question: Duckworth. A.) a qualified candidate who would bring very unique experience to Wash. and B.) You can be sure that her backers would be charged with raising serious $$ for the Gov -- most likely for his legal defense fund.
I suspect Bill had a previous career in a cherry orchard.
It is possible, but I don't see Reid organizing that given the push for the Democratic majority in the Senate, especially if coattails bring in more than expected. It's all about the numbers for them right now, and I think Rod's unpopularity is too local now to be a national issue, and the country would be too swept up in the Obama honeymoon for Rod's self-appointment to draw too much national attention.
Um, Pat Quinn, who would be governor, is also a Democrat.
===I think Rod’s unpopularity is too local now to be a national issue===
A governor under multiple federal investigations by a well-known (in DC) prosecutor would not be a local issue.
===Obama honeymoon for Rod’s self-appointment to draw too much national attention===
A self-appointment could seriously damage that honeymoon. Don't kid yourself. It would be a huge issue. I just don't see it.
Besides, as I've said before in private, if he moves to DC that brings a new US Attorney into the probe.
Just crazy enough to work.
Gold star.
Also I think 2 years away in the US Senate with Governor Quinn and a larger number of dems in Springfield and the deadlock that will bring might make Rod look better if he 'comes back' to run for a third term.
It might make us miss Rod the way we miss Brad now.
There's your new Senator.
Problem is, this blog is getting to be too long to throw a dart at.
Secondly, it much much much behooves Rod to "rid" the state of Patrick Fitzgerald. Here's where the tricky part comes in. It would be politically difficult for Obama to remove Fitzgerald, but it's to his own advantage (Rezko real estate deal and whatever else Rezko may be singing about) and those of his allies with the Machine that it be done. But, it has to be done without making it "look" bad.
Obama's replacement, from Rod's standpoint, has to be a willing fall guy, someone willing to make the recommendation to the new Prez for a NEW US Attorney for northern Illinois. That might kill reelection chances in 6 years, so you'd need someone older in age who isn't hoping to embark on a 30 year Senate career. Should he agree to the terms, Jesse White would seem to fit the bill.
The federal pension issue is easily solved by 3 more years of service in an obscure federal job, if this is a lame-duck sort of appointment.
Obama's term ends in 2 years, and so would anyone's who took his place.
Argument still applies, though. Unless they could find someone stupid enough or overoptimistic enough to believe he or she could be elected two years after doing that. In Blago's spot, I'd be appealing to JW, "wouldn't it be fitting that you end your long career in public service as a United States Senator?" It would also open up the SoS slot and the possibility of filling it with someone Blago sees as a reelection threat to him, and also help such a potential threat by moving to the traditional springboard to the Guv's mansion.
Some some random thoughts.
Only if he's convicted or impeached and removed from office by Jan. 20th. Highly improbable outcomes.
Ron Gidwitz is the kind of pick Blagojevich likes to make. Ron has enough credibility of bipartisanship to tap into a new voter base for Rod, and it would give all his enemies fits over the sheer nerve of Blagojevich to name him instead of one of them.
Blagojevich doesn't like to be led. He isn't going to placate his own party because it can't stand him. So he would select Ron Gidwitz out of spite and hope.
Doubt if he would take the pay cut from Wall Street...ummm, never mind.
I would even try out I figure I would make it at least to the goofball show...
The former State Senator has the brains, he's a good campaigner, and he's got a reputation as a reformer who's led on education and health care.
I'd say Lisa Madigan because Blagoevich is just delusional enough to think he can win re-elction. But he would help himself with his so-far loyal African American voters if he did appoint an African American.
Jay Hoffman. You gotta reward his loyalty somehow!
I don't see any way Obama's replacement would get the job without agreeing to recommend someone other than Fitz for the US Attorney's job. As a matter of fact, I'll go out on a limb and flat-out predict that he's gone if Obama wins.
I hope I'm wrong, and I'd be happy to eat a heaping helping of crow if I am.
The senior, not junior, Senator has that job. The new person would have no role.
When people get their tinfoil hats on, it's tough for any actual information to penetrate.
Blago would want access to Schakowsky's fund raising prowess as a quid pro quo for an appointment, and he's just careless enough to suggest it. I have no idea whether she's careless enough to go along.
Per Rich, the Senate is the final arbiter of who they seat. They do not have to act on an appointment. Even further, under the Rules of the Senate, a gubernatorial appointment has to be signed by both the governor AND the secretary of state. Hello, Jesse White.
Per Bill, Huey Long was elected Senator while he was still governor of Louisiana. Because he hated his louey governor, he waited two years until he got his own guy elected governor before he took the oath for the Senate.
That would certainly help Rod the most.
Unfortunate suggestion, given the connection in that other story of parolees on the loose - courtesy of the Governor, and the Jennifer Hudson tragedy...
Oh, well, I deserved it.
First, Rod will probably talk publicly about placing Tammy Duckworth in the open Senate seat, but its highly likely that Obama would ask Duckworth to serve as Secretary of Veterans Affairs in his administration. She has generally done a good job leading the Illinois Department of Veterans Affairs, and could do the fedeal job. Plus, as a wounded vet who has been through the system recently, she has a valuable perspective on the Department. In terms of her political credentials, she was well received at the Democratic convention, when the Obama campaign gave her podium time and put her speech in prime time, and Durbin and Emmanuel got to know and like her during her 2006 Congressional race.
Second, to borrow a baseball phrase, watch for the double-switch in Rod's appointment to the vacant Senate seat. For example, if Rod appoints Lisa to the Senate (which she may or may not take), then he can also appoint Jay Hoffman to the then vacant IL AG position, which gives Rod what he really needs: a friendly chief law enforcement official, who will back Rod up in his fights with the Speaker and who might give a little peek into the criminal investigation into the Governor's Office. Now that Rod's visions of the White House have gone, Rod could care less about what happens in DC. Now the focus is on IL, and if sending someone to DC opens up a spot that helps Rod here in IL, then he'll ring up the dugout phone and call for the double switch. (In case you're thinking Rod might appoint Pat Quinn to the Senate and then appoint Jay Hoffman to the open Lt Gov seat - thus ensuring a friend to pardon Rod for any state law offenses and/or to make sure records and documents in the Gov office stay in the Gov office (and not in the U.S. Attorney's Office) if Rod leaves - the IL Constitution states the Lt Gov osition remains open if vacated, with the SOS serving as Gov in case of a Gov vacancy.)