another thing about 1994-it wasn't just "we're not the Dems and not affiliated with Clinton" that worked for the GOP. The GOP (at least at the Congressional level) espoused a coherent plan for what the GOP would do if it was in power. Something along those lines for the State of Illinois could do wonders...are you reading this, Tom Cross?
47th Ward
· 3 months ago
Good points Rich. My take on the Tea Party turnout is that, while impressive, it is still too diffuse issues wise. In other words, a lot of people are fired up, but for different reasons.
You've got 2nd Amendment people, anti-Socialists, anti-taxers, deficit hawks, Pro-Lifers and those on the right who are feeling generally disaffected. That is a hard audience to galvanize.
But time is on the side of those who can organize this disparate group of "mad as heck" Republican leaners. Not good for my party, but it ain't over yet.
For me, Election Night 1994 was a nightmare. I'll never forget where I was when my party imploded. I hope I never see anything like that again.
Anon
· 3 months ago
Berrios deal won't have much an impact. Too complex for the average voter unless someone can personalize the issue. "How does this affect me?"
Carl Nyberg
· 3 months ago
Re: Berrios
Doesn't Jim Houlihan deserve a little of the blame for their not even being a successor identified?
siriusly
· 3 months ago
RRW is right, it was the clear alternative not just the angry anti-Dem vote. I think you're right Rich in predicting that a lot of Republicans will win in 2010, more than usual, but it won't be 1994. I say that in part because the fallout over banking, economy and other woes can still be pegged on the GOP.
If the Radogno's Senate Republicans don't win a few seats back next year, they never will.
Not sure I agree with you about the Berrios thing.
siriusly
· 3 months ago
Also - I loved that hilarious video from Illinois Review.
The music and the mis-spellings on those signs really motivated me to go buy some more guns.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
===it was the clear alternative not just the angry anti-Dem vote===
If I remember correctly, polls showed that few voters ever actually heard about the contract for america.
downstate hick
· 3 months ago
Rich,
Calling video poker legislation the worst idea in history is just plain wrong. Why not let some small family owned businesses have a piece of gaming revenue, rather than just the big Vegas controlled corporations who take the majority of their profits out of state. As least local businesses reinvest in their communities.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
Also, if memory serves, depressed Democratic turnout was a bigger factor in Illinois than increased GOP turnout.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
===Calling video poker legislation the worst idea in history is just plain wrong.===
When did I do that?
PalosParkBob
· 3 months ago
The Tea parties could have close to doubled their attendance if they had adequate parking and traffic control.
I got to New Lenox at 9:50 and got waved off by police when I got to Veterans Parkway.
Literally hundreds of cars were circling in the traffic jam.
Same thing happened at the Lisle Tea Party a while back.
If B.O. can give his message to the school kids, why can't the tea party patriots rent a HS football stadium?
Carl Nyberg
· 3 months ago
The GOP base might be motivated, but they are peddling a combination of things that have been tried before (and failed), blaming Democrats for stuff that happened or started under Republicans and statements that are simply inconsistent with facts and logic.
Maybe the GOP wins based on seniors who are disproportionately represented in mid-term elections.
But Republicans need a huge assist from the media to overlook practically everything they say as being really far out there.
But the Republicans do anger well. If voters want to vote for the side that has the most genuine anger this will be trouble for the Democrats and the country.
If Democrats don't pass a health care bill, Obama may rip a page from the Clinton playbook. Let Republicans take the House of Reps and then contrast himself with the wackjobs in Congress.
Obama ain't up for election in 2010, so he's not gonna take the heat next year if Congressional Dems screw up health care.
JonShibleyFan
· 3 months ago
"If B.O. can give his message to the school kids, why can’t the tea party patriots rent a HS football stadium? "
Because he was elected president, and they weren't.
siriusly
· 3 months ago
"Also, if memory serves, depressed Democratic turnout was a bigger factor in Illinois than increased GOP turnout. "
Yes, you're right about that.
Not sure if any of the top of ticket Dem candidates are good motivators for Dem voters . . .
Shore
· 3 months ago
As someone on what's left of the liberal wing of the party in Kirk's district who was around for 1994 and has worked in politics around the country since then, I think the key to this is whether the party can get back moderates.
In 1994, the party was still a viable thing for moderate republicans. That's no longer the case, and it's taken years of bad Republican leadership to undo that. These people have left the party with reason, and as much as I want us to win, I think it's going to take a few cycles for us to fully turn it around.
You're right on the contract, I've heard that before.
Ramsn
· 3 months ago
I don't know Rich. Doesn't the current ILGOP need to be speaking to these fired up conservatives? This seems like national political outrage. Mark Kirk surely isn't going to fire these folks up to turn out and volunteer; is there a Gubernatorial candidate that can? (Not rhetorical--I really am not sure.)
In 94 the national GOP had the Contract and some charismatic, high profile, or at least, "tough guy" leadership and figures in Gingrich, Buchanan, Dole, that was Limbaugh's heyday, too. Also, the remnants of the Perot campaign were around. This outpouring of rage is impressive, but I don't know if it's analogous.
CircularFiringSquad
· 3 months ago
The differences between 94 and 09 1. Bush/Cheney/GOP created economic disaster 2. Commando Kirk (please cuts my crusts) ticket topper 3."Gags" Brady "leading" the GOP charge 4.______________________(#) outstanding county & legis candidates. 5______________(#) outstanding cong candidates 6...... More to come
Frank
· 3 months ago
In my opinion, the Berrios/Assessor election will be a complete non-issue come election day because it appears there will not be a viable opponent to challenge him from either side. Unless Houlihan backs (funds) someone in this race, Berrios wins in a landslide. There is nobody else that could compete with that warchest. As a side note, why is it that nobody ever questioned where Houlihan got his rather large warchest from? Those same evil Property Tax Attorney's send appeals through the Assessor's office as well, right?
Bubs
· 3 months ago
If I were a Chicago Democrat, one guy I would not put in a spotlight by running him Countywide is Joe Berrios.
My sources say the Board of Review investigation could be very big. While the investigation has been fueled by allegations and office records submitted by one ex-staffer of Sen. Paul Froehlich, it has potential to become much more wide ranging.
But, we shall all have to see what the prosecutors say, if anything. To date they have not said a word.
wordslinger
· 3 months ago
That's a lot of people. A bad economy stirs up a lot of fear and anger.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
===a complete non-issue come election day===
To the voters, probably, in a vacuum. To the feds? Not so sure.
L.S.
· 3 months ago
Don't forget that 1994 also was the backlash of the brady bill. Lots of gun owners who are not the most dependable voters made a point to show up. The tea parties might be a similar crowd, but it seems they have more of an anti-government, ron paul kind of vibe. Who knows if they are going to show at the polls.
Bubs
· 3 months ago
Frank, we are over a year away from Election Day, and there is indeed a state grand jury looking into the Board of Review it as the Sun-Times has now stated. My sources say it is no "sham" gand jury at all, with ex-U.S. Attorneys on the case.
A lot can happen in a year.
Capitol View
· 3 months ago
Who is the face of the Republican Party in Illinois, that the voters can respond to? It better be Tom Cross or Chrissie Radogno, but these two will be undercut by their radical right colleagues if they try to appeal to independent voters.
The best thing that could happen to the Dems is for Bill Brady to win the Republican nomination for governor.
The State Republican Party platform should be a fun fight next year -- watch Mark Kirk try to tone it down, fail miserably, and then run more as an independent than as a Republican after the primary.
Dems may be less organized, but their circular firing squads are must less vicious that their Republican colleages. The Dems won't do badly in 2010 because the Republicans are so fragmented and self-rightous. The right wing base is never enough, except for some local elections.
dupage dan
· 3 months ago
People don't need a cohesive leader/platform in the voting booth. They only need to see the D lever or the R lever and they will choose. Rich is right, many voters in '94 didn't know about the Contract for America. They only knew that it was the dems at the controls when the stuff hit the fan.
The Prophet
· 3 months ago
I went to the New Lenox Tea Party Monday morning expecting a turnout (if they were lucky) of 400 to 500 people. I got there at 9:20 AM. I took a friend with me who insisted that he wanted to see it. Oh, my God. The people kept streaming in even after the event started at 10:00 AM. I can't confirm how many were there but my friend religiously (no pun intended) goes to Joliet Catholic High School football games where they have 10,000 people in the football stadium. My friend assured me that there was without a doubt 8,000 to 9,000 people there that day for the New Lenox Tea Party. The crowd was a mix but it was predominantly older people (ages 50-80). And, these people were genuinely angry at what is going on in the country. It was not just about health care that they were venting about, it was about anything that you can think of (stimulus package, bailing some corporations out but letting others fail, rampant government spending, Barney Frank and his impact on the Fannie and Freddie Mac disaster in housing loans, etc.). The name of Congresswoman Debbie Halvorson was mentioned on the stage by one of the speakers and the crowd was Booing so loudly at her that poor Debbie probably heard it down in Kankakee County. She had decided (probably wisely) "not to hold" health care meetings with her constituents like many of her fellow Congressman have been doing. Instead, she has been "Robo-Calling" the voters in her district and playing up a gigantic "teleconference" that she was going to have instead where "everybody" could participate by dialing in to it. Yeah, okay Congresswoman Halvorson. I would probably hide myself so you won't hear me criticize you for playing possum. I would be afraid of these people too. Well, her efforts evidentally earned her the name "Robo-Debbie" because that was what the people in the crowd were calling her. Funny stuff. There had to have been 500-700 humorous signs that the folks in New Lenox that morning were holding that attacked the current administrations both in Washington and in Springfield. It was truly an amazing sight. It was "an angry crowd".
I may be wrong (but I don't think so) but I honestly believe that there has been a huge mistake made in the reading of the political winds by Obama and the Congress.If they had gone more slowly with the changes, perhaps it would have gone down the throat of these voters a little better? I don't know. I sense another tsunami coming to Illinois in November 2010 but this time it isn't going to be an Obama Tsunami. I think that the vast majority of all "incumbents" (both Democrat and Republican) are going to be shown the "Exit Door". Robo-Debbie (as she is now affectionately called) will be one of them.
Anyway, I will always remember the sincere resentment and anger found in the members of the crowd. They were not unruly but just mad. Thank goodness there was no alcohol served there that day.
Frank
· 3 months ago
Rich and Bubs,
You are both exactly right, and if any of the allegations prove to be true, and charges are filed, Berrios is in a lot more trouble than just winning an Assessor race. I'm just not so confident that anything comes of the allegations.
Pat collins
· 3 months ago
, polls showed that few voters ever actually heard about the contract for america
But what it did do was to unify the Rs, rally them, and give challengers an agenda. People may not have known what the specifics were, but they did know the other guys had a plan.
They knew that one guy was talking what he would do, the other was flailing about.
That the public did not know the details of a plan released six weeks before the election is not unusual.
Even Brits (in "The right nation" ) think it had an effect.
Amalia
· 3 months ago
what does Rep. Berrios do in the legislature? NOTHING! It would be less infuriating if she were, oh, say, like Lisa Madigan, a pol relative who does something. But Toni is packaged air.
downstate hick
· 3 months ago
Calling video poker legislation the worst idea in history is just plain wrong.===
When did I do that?
In you comments earlier:
A great lobbyist, in fact. Berrios was a key player in getting video poker passed in this state — one of the worst ideas in the history of state government.
downstate hick
· 3 months ago
Sorry Rich, It was the Suntimes not you who made the Quote about video poker.
My mistake, Sorry.
Deep South
· 3 months ago
I think Illinois incumbents who serve in Springfield need to be concerned...Dem and Repub. However, the Repubs aren't offering anything. It's all socialist this and socialist that. But where are their ideas? Haven't seen any so far. I think fear mongering will appeal to the base, but is the base relevant anymore? They're very loud but that's about it...no substance. And do all these loud people vote?
NoLegs
· 3 months ago
Mike Madigan is without question the most cautious guy in politics. No Way anyone will find anything on him and that includes the "G".
Louis Howe
· 3 months ago
I remember 1994 all too well, and today smells much, too much, like 1993. Rich is correct...we had a very depressed democratic base. While the GOP win wasn’t a complete surprise, the extent of the landslide was more than we expected. Tracking Polls in house races taken within a few days of the election were off by more than 10 points. The reason was that Democratic turnout was much less than expected.
Michelle Flaherty
· 3 months ago
In 94 there was also a GOP map. The gov's race appears to be the only thing really in play. Does anyone really think enough Senate and House districts will change hands? And no, I'm not counting the comptroller or treasurer races because they're not exactly juggernauts of daily political strength.
Ghost
· 3 months ago
=== GOP base appears to be fired up.=== Ahh but there is the rub; the GOP is fired up, to do battle with itself. The fired up base is pushing to dump its moderate memebrs and to run far right canidates. The 1994 slate was a lot of moderate GOP memebrs who drew heartily upon the cup of independents in IL.
OneMan
· 3 months ago
You may think they are nuts... But kids these tea party folks are motivated. Don't underestimate what a motivated group can do.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
OneMan, I don't disagree that they're motivated. But to do what, exactly?
Louis G. Atsaves
· 3 months ago
Don't pay attention to the tea party types who show up and vent. Don't mind the tea party types when they show up and vent. Make fun of the tea party types when they show up and vent.
Those comments have been circulating all summer long.
I'm not a "tea party" type of Republican, but yes, they are fired up. And they are registered voters. And they will be voting.
Nothing more dangerous than a bunch of fed up voters.
OneMan
· 3 months ago
Still working on motivated for what. Some of them sure are angry about government in general.
I think more than anything else they are motivated for small government.
Michelle Flaherty
· 3 months ago
Come to think of it, the last time Illinois voters were this fed up they elected Rod Blagojevich governor -- twice.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
lol.
True.
CircularFiringSquad
· 3 months ago
The face of the Republican Party? "Gags" Brady The supersecret GOP chair who replaced TugBoatAndy McKenna and muffled all the candidates at the fair He then went underground, generated all the media attention for Commando Crusts Kirk and finally achieved national attention for his blow hard comment about the President's Back To School Address. He might be replaced by the old GOP face Bettey Loren Maltese
Brennan
· 3 months ago
Wouldn't the petition gatherers have something to tell you about the people that attended the New Lenox Tea Party?
I think voters will support a large government so long as it is effective. It's when revenues start to decline that its inherent ineffective nature starts to show.
The three big factors in 1994 were the Brady Bill, Gays in the Military, and Somalia. They were three issues that were already mortgaged in the 1992 races.
wordslinger
· 3 months ago
Brennan, I think the House bank scandal was the big one.
Pat collins
· 3 months ago
Somalia. They were three issues that were already mortgaged in the 1992 races
And Somalia wasn't an issue until our going pres Bush sent some troops in. So, no real effect on anything in Nov of 92.
Lefty Lefty
· 3 months ago
I've learned a lot over the years since I was an angry left-wing college kid. The most important as far as elections go is the need for organization. All the screaming in the world isn't going to get Republicans elected. The left has been screaming since I was born--fat lot of good it has done us. (Note: The president is not a leftist. Please.)
If the Rs can get these people to go back to their respective districts, pound the pavement, construct a message, and choose electable candidates, then the Ds are in trouble. That sounds, right now, like a very tall order.
Secret Square
· 3 months ago
Gee Rich, if you were REALLY a tool of the liberal Democrats you would have ignored this story just like the MSM did :-)
What are all these people so angry about? I can think of several things:
-- The fear of what will happen to the country from running up such massive debt. Everyone "knows" from experience that being in debt and not being able to pay it back leads to financial disaster, so how can they believe all this federal/state spending is really going to do any good in the long run.
-- Fear of taxes going up. Especially among people who are already paying high property taxes, sales taxes, etc.
-- A general perception -- accurate or not -- that certain groups of people (e.g. illegal immigrants, welfare/Medicaid recipients) have been getting a "free ride" at the expense of hardworking taxpayers for too long.
-- Fear that the Obama Administration's insistence on fast-tracking the health care plan concealed a desire to keep the public from finding out about aspects that many would not find acceptable (e.g. abortion coverage, "rationing" of care)
-- Fear that the moral fiber of the country is collapsing, particularly in relation to issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
-- Distrust of government and the media because they too often do ignore or dismiss their point of view.
-- For Illinois residents, there is the added frustration of having one of the most notoriously corrupt governments in the country.
Whether all these fears are justified or not, they are out there, and neither the state nor the federal administrations, nor the Democrats in general, seem to be doing much to allay them.
Bill O Rights
· 3 months ago
Some People wont Remember the Contract for America.
But I will remember it as the GOP's contract on American middle class.
BTW where was all the anger when the GA was passing the the Patriot Act, the military commisions act and other assualts on the constitution. I just dont get it.
Brennan
· 3 months ago
Pat: Thanks. Not Somalia per se, but rather the questions about Bill Clinton's lack of military service to become Commander in Chief. Somalia was just the catalyst.
Brennan
· 3 months ago
=BTW where was all the anger when the GA was passing the the Patriot Act, the military commisions act and other assualts on the constitution. I just dont get it.=
In late 2001 and 2002?
wordslinger
· 3 months ago
Secret, people will tolerate a lot they don't necessarily like if their house value is going up, their 401K is solid, and their job is secure. When those things aren't happening, the other stuff really starts to bother them.
Wumpus
· 3 months ago
How long before people start playing the race card re: Madigan vs Berrios? Am I the first, what do I win? a 1 year subscrition to Capitol Fax and a lunch with Rich Miller and Mike Murray! yay!
ZC
· 3 months ago
This is all true, but as a Dem I'd be more scared if election day was two months away, instead of over twelve.
This could be a building wave, but a year is a long time to keep up this kind of intensity. And it does raise the possibility, as some commenters have noted, that in a year some of these folks will be at each others' throats. Many Tea Party folks are not exactly fans of their own GOP leadership.
With luck some of them will get sidetracked into purging the last remaining GOP moderates, and thus help undercut the party's chances of success in 2010.
VanillaMan
· 3 months ago
United States House of Representatives elections, 2010
From From VanillaPedia
The U.S. House election, 2010 was a realigning election—a major Republican landslide that set the stage for the decisive Election of 2012. The elections of members of the United States House of Representatives in 2010 came in the middle of President Barack Obama's single term. The nation was in its deepest economic depression ever following the Recession of 2009, so economic issues were at the forefront. In the spring, the Billion-Dollar Stimulus damaged the economy, along with the passage of the Cap N'Trade Abomination of 2009. It was accompanied by violence; the voters lost and many moved toward the Republican party. Immediately after the 2009 Obamacare Disaster, Eugene V. Debs led a nationwide high-speed railroad strike, called the Pullman Strike. It shut down the nation's transportation system around Detroit for weeks, (fortunately it was Detroit, so no one noticed), until President Obama's use of federal troops ended it. Debs went to prison (for disobeying a court order). Illinois' Governor Patrick Quinn, a Democrat, broke bitterly with Obama.
The fragmented and disoriented Democratic Party was crushed everywhere especially in the South, losing more than half its seats to the Republican Party. The Democrats lost 125 seats in the election while the Republicans won 130 seats. This makes the 2010 election the largest midterm election victory in the entire history of the United States since 1894 from which this entry of VanillaPedia was plagarized.
The main issues revolved around the severe economic depression, which the Republicans blamed on the liberal Obama Democrats led by the President. Obama supporters lost heavily, weakening their hold on the party and setting the stage for an 2012 takeover by the Euthanasia wing of the party. The Green Party ran candidates in the South and Midwest, but generally lost ground. The Democrats tried to raise a religious issue, claiming the GOP was in cahoots with American Judeo-Christians. The allegations seem to have fallen flat as Muslims moved toward the GOP. Democrat Harry Reid lost the Senate race in Nevada, but came back to win the 2012 presidential nomination with Van Jones his running mate.
Frank
· 3 months ago
"How long before people start playing the race card re: Madigan vs Berrios?"
Madigan and Berrios are allies. How does race come into play?
Boscobud
· 3 months ago
I think Madigan and Berrios are friends. Not Allies.
Boscobud
· 3 months ago
Just like Santana calls Berrios "Dad". Here a good QOTD What does Berrios Call Madigan? I say "Daddy"
Anonymous101
· 3 months ago
Um, Frank: Berrios is Latino...
Frank
· 3 months ago
It looks like I misread Wumpus' post, but he did call it "Madigan vs. Berrios", which I read as the two being somehow against each other. My question was why would one or the other bring race into play?
Secret Square
· 3 months ago
Very true, Word. If everything is going well, you don't want to rock the boat, but when everything is falling apart, you have nothing to lose by doing so.
I see among some people I know, a sense that those who have "played by the rules" all their lives -- finished their education, married and had kids (in that order), raised their children "right" and kept them out of trouble, bought houses they COULD afford, paid their taxes, paid their health and other insurance premiums faithfully, saved for retirement, and never "asked for a handout" -- are getting screwed, or at least not benefitting as much as others who they percieve as having gotten away with breaking the rules (bailed-out banks, corrupt pols, illegal immigrants, etc.)
Skittles
· 3 months ago
The Tea Party crowd is motivated to vote- vote recent incumbants and the lifelong politcians out of office.
Rich Miller
· 3 months ago
===The Tea Party crowd is motivated to vote===
Yeah, but don't they usually vote anyway?
Jay Cutler's hairdo
· 3 months ago
One metric to keep an eye on in Feb: how many voters pull R ballots vs. in 2006 and 2008. In my area, if there is a significant uptick in R ballots in the governor and local legislative races, I'll start paying attention. To paraphrase an earlier commenter: its Sept 2009, not Sept 2010.
Responsa
· 3 months ago
Rich, Inquiring (literary) minds want to know---Based on today's thread headline, will your tomorrow's headline be: The Hinge of Fate, Triumph and Tragedy, or The Grand Alliance?
Boscobud
· 3 months ago
I vote for The Hinge of Fate.
Responsa
· 3 months ago
You'll note I specifically did not include Their Finest Hour as one of the choices since it's hard to imagine Rich finding anything going on in Illinois politics which could conceivably merit it.
wordslinger
· 3 months ago
When Blago goes on trial, it can be "Closing the Ring."
Plain and simple
· 3 months ago
Rich, Did we just see Governor Quinn do so pay to play? Reappointing an official from a union he needs support from to get elected?
Gregor
· 3 months ago
The tea party crowds strike me as a mob of the ill-informed and overly-stimulated, being jabbed and goaded by FOX people and Dick Armey's private PR group into righteous indignation and barely-concealed race hatred, but like Rich said, to what purpose? The conservative Repubs behind this "movement" are pushing huge boulders down from a mountain ledge, but nobody knows where the boulders will roll to. Remember how the LaRouchies infiltrated a disorganized Dem party in Illinois a while back and made it an easy Republican win? While they won't all suddenly become Birchers, this rabble of malcontents will damage the Repubs more than the targeted Dems in the end. That's my prediction, anyway.
always anonymous
· 3 months ago
if quinn wants a chance at being elected - he needs to distance himself from anyone with Blago stink on them. this latest appointment just looks bad.
Gregor
· 3 months ago
Agreed, Quinn can hardly go wrong ousting Blago appointees. Wish he'd do more of that.
Emily Booth
· 3 months ago
The Republicans need to quit wagging their finger in other people's faces. Republicans? Tea party? Give me a break.
Inish
· 3 months ago
Angry people with poorly crafted signs doesn't always translate into votes. I would say the people who are attending tea partys have never been in play for Dems. It is all about the middle- that being said- this year will be a great test to see if Dems can still organize and knock on some doors. Obama inherited a mess- it will take time. Nothing was forced down my throat, sexret square, to the degree that the post 911 anti terriorist legis was. That being said- people are scared, broke and nothing motivates mob mentality like losing your home....
Inish
· 3 months ago
*secret square
Quizzical
· 3 months ago
I agree with Inish. And things do look problematic for the Democrats. But I don't underestimate the Republican's ability to screw things up.
Also, if things are still tough a year from now, but not apocalypse tough, it's hard to see how traditional Republican policy prescriptions will appeal to voters. Huge budget deficits, can't cut taxes. Cutting state services more? War with Iran? Saving me from gay marriage?
Mark Kirk's signature bill this term calls for longer prison time for dealing strong marijuana. How's that going to make my life better?
Secret Square
· 3 months ago
I do believe that the hard-core anti-tax/spending element of the tea party movement does include many people who significantly underestimate their level of reliance on government services and how much those services affect their lives.
They assume that the only people who benefit from government programs are "lazy", do-nothing goverment employees, welfare queens, people who use Link cards at the supermarket and drive away in SUVs (everybody, at least on newspaper blogs, seems to have sighted one of these), single/teen moms needing child care subsidies (which THEY didn't need because they waited to have kids until they were married, or because they relied on their own resources), etc.
Of course this overlooks the fact that even the most independent and self-supporting people rely on numerous goverment services daily... roads, fire protection, police, schools, etc. Plus, the quality of public schools in your community WILL affect the general quality of life in your community even if you or your children don't happen to attend said school.
Self-reliance is a good thing and government cannot do everything, nor can it ever fully replace family, neighbors, friends, and other voluntary associations; but that doesn't make all government spending or taxation automatically bad or evil. "No man is an island."
All Comments
You've got 2nd Amendment people, anti-Socialists, anti-taxers, deficit hawks, Pro-Lifers and those on the right who are feeling generally disaffected. That is a hard audience to galvanize.
But time is on the side of those who can organize this disparate group of "mad as heck" Republican leaners. Not good for my party, but it ain't over yet.
For me, Election Night 1994 was a nightmare. I'll never forget where I was when my party imploded. I hope I never see anything like that again.
Doesn't Jim Houlihan deserve a little of the blame for their not even being a successor identified?
If the Radogno's Senate Republicans don't win a few seats back next year, they never will.
Not sure I agree with you about the Berrios thing.
The music and the mis-spellings on those signs really motivated me to go buy some more guns.
If I remember correctly, polls showed that few voters ever actually heard about the contract for america.
Calling video poker legislation the worst idea in history is just plain wrong. Why not let some small family owned businesses have a piece of gaming revenue, rather than just the big Vegas controlled corporations who take the majority of their profits out of state. As least local businesses reinvest in their communities.
When did I do that?
I got to New Lenox at 9:50 and got waved off by police when I got to Veterans Parkway.
Literally hundreds of cars were circling in the traffic jam.
Same thing happened at the Lisle Tea Party a while back.
If B.O. can give his message to the school kids, why can't the tea party patriots rent a HS football stadium?
Maybe the GOP wins based on seniors who are disproportionately represented in mid-term elections.
But Republicans need a huge assist from the media to overlook practically everything they say as being really far out there.
But the Republicans do anger well. If voters want to vote for the side that has the most genuine anger this will be trouble for the Democrats and the country.
If Democrats don't pass a health care bill, Obama may rip a page from the Clinton playbook. Let Republicans take the House of Reps and then contrast himself with the wackjobs in Congress.
Obama ain't up for election in 2010, so he's not gonna take the heat next year if Congressional Dems screw up health care.
Because he was elected president, and they weren't.
Yes, you're right about that.
Not sure if any of the top of ticket Dem candidates are good motivators for Dem voters . . .
In 1994, the party was still a viable thing for moderate republicans. That's no longer the case, and it's taken years of bad Republican leadership to undo that. These people have left the party with reason, and as much as I want us to win, I think it's going to take a few cycles for us to fully turn it around.
You're right on the contract, I've heard that before.
In 94 the national GOP had the Contract and some charismatic, high profile, or at least, "tough guy" leadership and figures in Gingrich, Buchanan, Dole, that was Limbaugh's heyday, too. Also, the remnants of the Perot campaign were around. This outpouring of rage is impressive, but I don't know if it's analogous.
1. Bush/Cheney/GOP created economic disaster
2. Commando Kirk (please cuts my crusts) ticket topper
3."Gags" Brady "leading" the GOP charge
4.______________________(#) outstanding county & legis candidates.
5______________(#) outstanding cong candidates
6......
More to come
My sources say the Board of Review investigation could be very big. While the investigation has been fueled by allegations and office records submitted by one ex-staffer of Sen. Paul Froehlich, it has potential to become much more wide ranging.
But, we shall all have to see what the prosecutors say, if anything. To date they have not said a word.
To the voters, probably, in a vacuum. To the feds? Not so sure.
A lot can happen in a year.
The best thing that could happen to the Dems is for Bill Brady to win the Republican nomination for governor.
The State Republican Party platform should be a fun fight next year -- watch Mark Kirk try to tone it down, fail miserably, and then run more as an independent than as a Republican after the primary.
Dems may be less organized, but their circular firing squads are must less vicious that their Republican colleages. The Dems won't do badly in 2010 because the Republicans are so fragmented and self-rightous. The right wing base is never enough, except for some local elections.
I may be wrong (but I don't think so) but I honestly believe that there has been a huge mistake made in the reading of the political winds by Obama and the Congress.If they had gone more slowly with the changes, perhaps it would have gone down the throat of these voters a little better? I don't know. I sense another tsunami coming to Illinois in November 2010 but this time it isn't going to be an Obama Tsunami. I think that the vast majority of all "incumbents" (both Democrat and Republican) are going to be shown the "Exit Door". Robo-Debbie (as she is now affectionately called) will be one of them.
Anyway, I will always remember the sincere resentment and anger found in the members of the crowd. They were not unruly but just mad. Thank goodness there was no alcohol served there that day.
You are both exactly right, and if any of the allegations prove to be true, and charges are filed, Berrios is in a lot more trouble than just winning an Assessor race. I'm just not so confident that anything comes of the allegations.
But what it did do was to unify the Rs, rally them, and give challengers an agenda. People may not have known what the specifics were, but they did know the other guys had a plan.
They knew that one guy was talking what he would do, the other was flailing about.
That the public did not know the details of a plan released six weeks before the election is not unusual.
Even Brits (in "The right nation" ) think it had an effect.
When did I do that?
In you comments earlier:
A great lobbyist, in fact. Berrios was a key player in getting video poker passed in this state — one of the worst ideas in the history of state government.
It was the Suntimes not you who made the Quote about video poker.
My mistake, Sorry.
The gov's race appears to be the only thing really in play. Does anyone really think enough Senate and House districts will change hands? And no, I'm not counting the comptroller or treasurer races because they're not exactly juggernauts of daily political strength.
Ahh but there is the rub; the GOP is fired up, to do battle with itself. The fired up base is pushing to dump its moderate memebrs and to run far right canidates. The 1994 slate was a lot of moderate GOP memebrs who drew heartily upon the cup of independents in IL.
Those comments have been circulating all summer long.
I'm not a "tea party" type of Republican, but yes, they are fired up. And they are registered voters. And they will be voting.
Nothing more dangerous than a bunch of fed up voters.
I think more than anything else they are motivated for small government.
True.
"Gags" Brady
The supersecret GOP chair who replaced
TugBoatAndy McKenna and muffled all the candidates at the fair
He then went underground, generated all the media attention for Commando Crusts Kirk and finally achieved national attention for his blow hard comment about the President's Back To School Address.
He might be replaced by the old GOP face Bettey Loren Maltese
I think voters will support a large government so long as it is effective. It's when revenues start to decline that its inherent ineffective nature starts to show.
The three big factors in 1994 were the Brady Bill, Gays in the Military, and Somalia. They were three issues that were already mortgaged in the 1992 races.
And Somalia wasn't an issue until our going pres Bush sent some troops in. So, no real effect on anything in Nov of 92.
If the Rs can get these people to go back to their respective districts, pound the pavement, construct a message, and choose electable candidates, then the Ds are in trouble. That sounds, right now, like a very tall order.
What are all these people so angry about? I can think of several things:
-- The fear of what will happen to the country from running up such massive debt. Everyone "knows" from experience that being in debt and not being able to pay it back leads to financial disaster, so how can they believe all this federal/state spending is really going to do any good in the long run.
-- Fear of taxes going up. Especially among people who are already paying high property taxes, sales taxes, etc.
-- A general perception -- accurate or not -- that certain groups of people (e.g. illegal immigrants, welfare/Medicaid recipients) have been getting a "free ride" at the expense of hardworking taxpayers for too long.
-- Fear that the Obama Administration's insistence on fast-tracking the health care plan concealed a desire to keep the public from finding out about aspects that many would not find acceptable (e.g. abortion coverage, "rationing" of care)
-- Fear that the moral fiber of the country is collapsing, particularly in relation to issues like abortion and same-sex marriage.
-- Distrust of government and the media because they too often do ignore or dismiss their point of view.
-- For Illinois residents, there is the added frustration of having one of the most notoriously corrupt governments in the country.
Whether all these fears are justified or not, they are out there, and neither the state nor the federal administrations, nor the Democrats in general, seem to be doing much to allay them.
But I will remember it as the GOP's contract on American middle class.
BTW where was all the anger when the GA was passing the the Patriot Act, the military commisions act and other assualts on the constitution. I just dont get it.
In late 2001 and 2002?
This could be a building wave, but a year is a long time to keep up this kind of intensity. And it does raise the possibility, as some commenters have noted, that in a year some of these folks will be at each others' throats. Many Tea Party folks are not exactly fans of their own GOP leadership.
With luck some of them will get sidetracked into purging the last remaining GOP moderates, and thus help undercut the party's chances of success in 2010.
From From VanillaPedia
The U.S. House election, 2010 was a realigning election—a major Republican landslide that set the stage for the decisive Election of 2012. The elections of members of the United States House of Representatives in 2010 came in the middle of President Barack Obama's single term. The nation was in its deepest economic depression ever following the Recession of 2009, so economic issues were at the forefront. In the spring, the Billion-Dollar Stimulus damaged the economy, along with the passage of the Cap N'Trade Abomination of 2009. It was accompanied by violence; the voters lost and many moved toward the Republican party. Immediately after the 2009 Obamacare Disaster, Eugene V. Debs led a nationwide high-speed railroad strike, called the Pullman Strike. It shut down the nation's transportation system around Detroit for weeks, (fortunately it was Detroit, so no one noticed), until President Obama's use of federal troops ended it. Debs went to prison (for disobeying a court order). Illinois' Governor Patrick Quinn, a Democrat, broke bitterly with Obama.
The fragmented and disoriented Democratic Party was crushed everywhere especially in the South, losing more than half its seats to the Republican Party. The Democrats lost 125 seats in the election while the Republicans won 130 seats. This makes the 2010 election the largest midterm election victory in the entire history of the United States since 1894 from which this entry of VanillaPedia was plagarized.
The main issues revolved around the severe economic depression, which the Republicans blamed on the liberal Obama Democrats led by the President. Obama supporters lost heavily, weakening their hold on the party and setting the stage for an 2012 takeover by the Euthanasia wing of the party. The Green Party ran candidates in the South and Midwest, but generally lost ground. The Democrats tried to raise a religious issue, claiming the GOP was in cahoots with American Judeo-Christians. The allegations seem to have fallen flat as Muslims moved toward the GOP. Democrat Harry Reid lost the Senate race in Nevada, but came back to win the 2012 presidential nomination with Van Jones his running mate.
Madigan and Berrios are allies. How does race come into play?
I see among some people I know, a sense that those who have "played by the rules" all their lives -- finished their education, married and had kids (in that order), raised their children "right" and kept them out of trouble, bought houses they COULD afford, paid their taxes, paid their health and other insurance premiums faithfully, saved for retirement, and never "asked for a handout" -- are getting screwed, or at least not benefitting as much as others who they percieve as having gotten away with breaking the rules (bailed-out banks, corrupt pols, illegal immigrants, etc.)
Yeah, but don't they usually vote anyway?
Did we just see Governor Quinn do so pay to play? Reappointing an official from a union he needs support from to get elected?
Also, if things are still tough a year from now, but not apocalypse tough, it's hard to see how traditional Republican policy prescriptions will appeal to voters. Huge budget deficits, can't cut taxes. Cutting state services more? War with Iran? Saving me from gay marriage?
Mark Kirk's signature bill this term calls for longer prison time for dealing strong marijuana. How's that going to make my life better?
They assume that the only people who benefit from government programs are "lazy", do-nothing goverment employees, welfare queens, people who use Link cards at the supermarket and drive away in SUVs (everybody, at least on newspaper blogs, seems to have sighted one of these), single/teen moms needing child care subsidies (which THEY didn't need because they waited to have kids until they were married, or because they relied on their own resources), etc.
Of course this overlooks the fact that even the most independent and self-supporting people rely on numerous goverment services daily... roads, fire protection, police, schools, etc. Plus, the quality of public schools in your community WILL affect the general quality of life in your community even if you or your children don't happen to attend said school.
Self-reliance is a good thing and government cannot do everything, nor can it ever fully replace family, neighbors, friends, and other voluntary associations; but that doesn't make all government spending or taxation automatically bad or evil. "No man is an island."