Speaking as a conservative Republican, I agree with Green that there are real, serious problems among those calling themselves Republicans.
At the heart of the dispute is the definition of success. On one hand, you have ideologues who define success as 'righteousness'; that is, ideologically pure candidates. The other group defines sucess as electoral victory; that is, winning elections, not necessarily affecting policy.
Until these two competing views of success are reconciled, expect blood on the floor.
the wonderboy
· 2 years ago
Perhaps the Republicans in Illinois need to open the tent, so to speak. I tend to believe that many moderates in this state would actually vote Republican from time to time if the Republicans didn't cast them off as the enemy.
Recent developments are putting Illinois Republicans in a desperate place, but that doesn't guarantee a continued trend. If Illinois Republicans are to win anything statewide, then there must be a change in leadership and a renewed commitment to allowing moderates to be a part of the team.
HUH?
· 2 years ago
I hear a lot about how Democrats in Illinois are always proud of their ability to win elections, but I never hear of how proud they are at their ability to govern.
Jake from Elwood
· 2 years ago
As long as the Democrats continue to embrace the centrist viewpoint, Illinois will stay bluish. The conserative extremists are a more powerful bloc in the Republican Party than the liberal extremists are in the Democratic Party. A majority of the voters in the state are magnetized towards the middle. The Dems have fought to win the support of moderates and have been wildly successful to date. The GOP needs to refocus on its so-called "big tent" approach to start addressing this deficit. Corruption is a factor but it is increasingly bipartisan. As usual, Prof. Green does not disappoint.
Reddbyrd
· 2 years ago
Oh my GOSH. what are THEY thinking? First the GOPs (as in MOPEs) bring Karl Rove (as in ) into IL. Then they let BrickheadJoe back on the road again. AND Then they let him talk about GRyan. Yipes. What's next? Will JRyan and ChopperJim be on the loose. Meanwhile, Dems can take a break
Conservative Republican
· 2 years ago
Rich Miller, your partisanship is showing...
Regardless of the merits of your post, it is interesting that today you seek to highlight a "no news" report on the Democratic demographics of our state, while, on the other hand, you fail to even mention that the Cook County Republicans made a fresh start yesterday by electing a new County Chairman, Commissioner Elizabeth Doody Gorman.
Are you Democrats so insecure in your "majority" status that you have to regurgitate propaganda and bury the news?
Rich Miller
· 2 years ago
"Conservative Republican" I think it's your partisanship that is showing. I am planning to post that story in the subscriber-only section because I have some stuff to add about legislative races.
In the future, you might want to take a deep breath before you act like a knee-jerk and assign motives where none exists.
I'm at Starbucks
· 2 years ago
Rod will run again in 2010! Lisa, if she chooses to challenge a sitting democrat for the office, will be beaten badly by a strong base of democrats who have seen their lives improved as a result of Blagojevich's policies for health care and education.
Bring on the Brickhead -- Blagojevich will crush him in 2010.
the wonderboy
· 2 years ago
Conservative Republican...Allow me to point out that this thread is actually reporting the news, just not the news that you wanted to read perhaps. Would you have been as angry if Rich had buried the above story and only run a thread regarding the actions of the Cook County Reps? If the Republican Party in Illinois refuses to learn from information such as this, then necessary changes can never be made...
Larry Mulholland
· 2 years ago
Central Illinois may not continue to be soooo Republican. As jobs are handed out(sparingly) The D's will continue to build their base downstate just as the R's had done for many years.
Barack is and will continue to bring a newly interested generation into the D's big tent.
The radical right will continue to attempt to sabatoge the big tent concept justly supported by the moderates like Bob Kjellander.
The right wingnuts will continue to high five each other and slap themselves on the back just as they did in the last two (or three) elections. Illinois may never ever elect a conservative candidate (see conservatives Jim Ryan/Alan Keys election results).
Not a bright outlook for R's
Jasper
· 2 years ago
"I would only remind Birkett that hope is not a plan..."
That is, only if your name is Obama.
Is Barack exempt from ignoring the high levels of corruption in IL? He had no problem standing shoulder to shoulder with those in the eye of the U.S. Attorney storm. He ignored the chance to make a difference in the Nov. Elections, and is now the spokesman for ethics reform on the national level.
Birkett has a valid point about Blago's corruption. Can you deny that the public trust has been damaged? Yet, the voters have accepted that corruption is just a part of public service. Very discouraging.
Mad Conservative Crimefighter
· 2 years ago
I don't think Rod can run for a third term due to term limits. Anyway, the state GOP badly needs to promote conservative prinicipals if they have ANY HOPE of reestablishing themselves. I find it retarded that they are just acting like Democrats. They also need to go into Democrat strongholds and actively promote themselves...while they won't turn those areas red they can win over some converts so those areas AREN'T as blue.
YNM
· 2 years ago
Conservative Republican ... do you have anything more substantial to support a different view or to argue that the Republican Party in this state is not in trouble? I'm not sure a new chairman in Cook County takes care of it.
To echo what the wonderboy commented earlier ... if the GOPers in this state want to resonate with voters and win, either with ideas or in the polls, they need to open their tent. The fact is many pockets of this state are unique demographically ... you have educators in wealthy areas that often vote Democratic on education and social issues but Republican on fiscal issues. You have laborers in many areas who might tend to vote Democratic on issues effecting their employment (and because Democrats don't tend to label unions as the devil's playground) but might tend to vote Republican on many social issues.
I, for one, believe it would behoove the Republican Party in this state to recognize that there are many moderates and independents in this State who might join them in their tent if the doors were open ... if the issues we talked about were more about people's lives and less about abortion, gay rights, and abortion. While those issues are near and dear to many, there are those of us who would like our politicians to be more about the bigger issues and less about the fringe.
Rich Miller
· 2 years ago
"Mad Conservative Crimefighter" do you even live in Illinois? We don't have term limits for anybody here.
YNM
· 2 years ago
Mad Conservative ... what? huh? You believe the Illinois Republican Party is not conservative enough? Were you an Oberweis operative this past fall?
George Ryan's Cellmate
· 2 years ago
Conservative Republican at 9:28:
Some folks here yelled that Rich is a Republican because he posted wall-to-wall stories about Blago's problems. Now you scream Rich is a Democrat because he posted on Prof. Green's article the GOP's woes. Conclusion: Goldilocks Rich Miller is getting it just right ! :)
As to the substance of the post, IL Dems can relate to the IL GOP's woes. Remember, IL Dems spent a generation out of the Governor's Mansion and years in the wilderness, and faced many of the same obstacles, e.g. Poshard's 1998 gov race and the ideological tests he faced and failed from more liberal elements of the party (when Ann Sathers on Belmont posted George Ryans signs in its front window, you knew Poshard was in trouble.)
In recent years, the IL GOP has tried unsuccessfully to sign big name talent (e.g. Alan Keyes and Mike Ditka for Senate, Jim Edgar for Gov) but is neglecting its farm team, i.e. younger state reps and smaller town mayors. These folks are your next generation of leaders. Give them opportunities to grow, expereience and lead. "But where can we get opportuntiies when Dems control the Mansion, the Statehouse and every Constitutional office ?," you ask. Look to the White House and GOP friends in DC. The GOP White House has countless task forces, advisory committees and other opportunities that may not be front page, but offer the chance to learn and grow.
Larry Mulholland
· 2 years ago
Mad Conservative
See my comments above. I think you made my point EVEN MORE clealry.
To all others, SEE!!!! Do you see clearly the moderates are dealing with? That guy still has reading Alan Keys talking points as his screen saver.
Papa Legba
· 2 years ago
It's a shame we don't have term limits here in Illinois, we need the. Look at the Monarchy in Cook County if you need a reason.
Rod will never run in 2010. I think he will be dealing with an Irishman on some particular issues dogging him.
Goodbye Napoleon
· 2 years ago
The numbers do speak for themselves, but I think they highlight Illinois' centrist nature. It's not that we're a liberal state, it's just that we're not an extremist state and if the Dems move too far to the left and the GOP finds a way to try and reach 50%, they could win elections again. But, I think both are unlikely to happen and Green is right, we're blue for a long time here.
The corruption / indictment rumors are rampant. Blago's new low-profile in recent months sure looks like someone who's getting ready for a [edited by Miller - please don't swear in any form] storm, but who knows rumors are only rumors.
fedup dem
· 2 years ago
I guess congratulations are in order for Cook County Comm. Elizabeth Doody Gorman on her election as Cook County Republican Chairman. Unfortunately, that move probably dooms any chance her brother (Larry Doody) had in at least making the runoff in the contest for Alderman of Chicago's 2nd Ward.
As for Joe Birkett, if the poor guy wants another job, they should rewrite the script for the play "Twelve Angry Men" to include some scenes with the prosecuting attorney. Then maybe cast member (and Birkett's brother-in-law) George wendt can help him land that part.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
Illinois was never a Red State. When Republicans ruled, they were remnants of Rockefeller Republicans. With Ryan's passing, this generation is gone. There are no Libertarian Republicans in sufficient number to steer the GOP towards the Illinois political center, which is further left of center than found nationally.
Chicagoland sets the thermostate of the state politically. So Illinois leans strongly Democratic. Thats is the way it is, and has been since 1930. The Thompson-Ryan years were a remarkable fluke. We are very unlikely to see another run of GOP governors like that anytime soon - especially with the conservatives running the GOP.
ZC
· 2 years ago
The good news for the Republican party is I think they have an excellent shot at winning back the governor's mansion, if Rod tanks, and continuing to do well at that level.
The bad news is: the candidate will not be a conservative GOP flag-bearer. IL is going more "blue" at the nationwide level, and what the IL GOP sorely needs is a standard bearer in the Schwarzenegger / Pataki / Mitt Romney model. If the GOP can figure out a way to position itself as a _check_ on the increasing Democratic tendencies of this state, it can win the governor's mansion and give something back to the conservative base on the side.
Expect the base to eventually figure this out. But maybe not in 2010.
respectful
· 2 years ago
Wonderboy and Jake both criticize the GOP for not fielding moderate candidates who appeal to the broad middle of the electorate. What was Judy Baar Topinka if not a moderate with middle-of-the road views? Sen. Radogno is also a moderate, but that didn't help her in the treasurer's race.
Jeff Trigg
· 2 years ago
Where are the Greens in Green's analysis?
Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. When business as usual continues and gets worse (and it is and will), a shift is certainly to occur. Democrats have complete power and they will screw it up over egos, jealousy, and internal power battles. We just might see the emergence of a consistent third party presence in Springfield when many more Democrats get fed up with their party leadership not delivering on promises despite complete control. Of course the shift could be back to the Republicans or it could be to other states as people leave the worsening quality of life in Illinois. Or maybe the Dems will wisen up and finally dump Madigan and Jones. Green seems to only be looking at the next election, which anyone could easily predict.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
As a young Republican who has worked on campaigns and traveled the state, I can thoroughly say that I am ashamed of our party. We do need to open up the tent nice and wide and start getting behind ideas that make sense to EVERYONE. The pension system does not affect everyone; the property tax cap does not affect everyone. Kids having healthcare and kids receiving a good education - primary, secondary and beyond - are essential issues. The state is becoming more moderate, and the Republicans had better start worrying about the loss of power and influence in the collar counties. Southern Illinois is a problem, too, as Bruce Stewart beat Steve McGlynn and Kurt Granberg somehow took down John Cavaletto. Those were two seats that should have been Republican but instead we lost them.
We lost every "competitive" race last November and we need new direction. We need new leadership and new ideas. But hey, don't listen to me or anything: I'm not a lobbyist or a check writer or a mope.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
Vanilla Man, you rock.
Another problem I see is that many of our players don't want to run for higher office. They are too concerned with losing out on their current office. Look at what Blago did in 2002: he ran for governor while he was still in Congress. Being a Congressman in either party is pretty awesome, but he rolled the dice and won. Yes, Rahm Emanuel was in place to succeed him, but to give up the throngs of D.C. to run a state is gutsy. Where are our players who are willing to do this?!
whatever
· 2 years ago
Joe Birkett will be Governor when hell freezes over. He's SOOOO yesterday's news.
Also, folks who are preaching to the GOP about "opening up the tent" need to get a clue. As you were appearently in a coma last year, here's an update. The State GOP ran the most "moderate" statewide slate probably in history last year. The State GOP organization was on the side of Topinka even all through the primary. It didn't remain neutral and actually worked against the more conservative challengers.
News flash, Topinka got fewer votes than Keyes statewide. Yes, yes, I know Keyes ran in a Presidential year. But the fact remains, Topinka got fewer votes than Keyes.
If Topinka was so wonderful (as so many on here said) she should have been able to get more people to the polls, despite the year. She couldn't.
The GOP's problem isn't ideology. It's terrible mismanagement and horribly weak candidates.
the wonderboy
· 2 years ago
respectful...perhaps you should reread the post. I didn't say anything about running moderate candidates (though I do think it is part of the change needed), but I did make reference to opening the tent as a party. My feeling is that the party needs to court supporters who don't tow the entire party line...focusing on areas of agreement instead of picking fights with potential friends.
As for JBT...not sure that this past election is indicative of how a moderate would fare in Illinois. JBT had to deal with issues such as George Ryan, a $16 million campaign by Rod, Voters coming out as a referendum on Iraq,and a poorly run campaign. JBT's loss cannot be generalized to future elections.
ChiCountryGuy
· 2 years ago
Rich, I'm curious to know who are the ones that are reporting that Joe Birkett is running for Governor in 2010? I didn't think posting rumors was PC.
ISUDEM
· 2 years ago
In response to ZC's comment, "what the IL GOP sorely needs is a standard bearer in the Schwarzenegger / Pataki / Mitt Romney model," I say bring it on because if you look at those Gov's track records in electing other Republicans you will see them sorely lacking. The Govenator failed to elect any GOP state Sens, Reps, statewide officeholders, AND lost a staunch GOP Congressional seat in 2006. Patacki in New York presided over the disintegration of the state GOP. They not longer have any statewide officeholders, are now only 2 seats away from losing their last foothold of power, the St. Senate, lost three congressional seats leaving the GOP with only 6 seats in the state while Spitzer is creating a new dynamic in the Dem. party pushing them to victory in congressional seats and county governments that haven't had Democrats since the days of FDR. I really think that in 2008 if Obama or Hillary are on the ticket those last six seats that the GOP holds in NY are in major trouble of being lost, NY is trending hard Dem. And Mitt, oh my poor boy Mitt. Lets see, he failed to elect a single GOP to the statehouse in the three elections he was running or in office and thats after raising over 3 million to fund their races. He lost the Gov. mansion the the next Barack Obama, Gov. Deval Patrick (a former South Sider I might say), after the GOP held it for 16 years. So ZC, I will help you find any leader for the IL GOP that is in the mold of either of those failed GOP leaders.
Joe's corner man
· 2 years ago
Methinks Birkett's head bops from his golder gloves boxing days have really effected his thinking---GOVERNOR Birkett?? C'mon Joe, just pay down your past campaign debt and practice law somewhere.
ChiCountryGuy
· 2 years ago
"Joe's Corner Man"
Birkett's campaign debt has been paid off for some time now. Try to do a little research....
Rich Miller
· 2 years ago
ChiCountryGuy, that rule applies to y'all. I'm hearing from DuPage guys I know that he's talking up a possible run (to them).
Bill
· 2 years ago
I can think of a lot of things to call what Vanilla Man does but "rock" is not one of them!
Animous
· 2 years ago
I agree with both VM & Whatever on this one. The conservatives need to understand the state will NEVER swing to the ultra conservative end of the spectrum, especially with the Republican missteps in the last few years (Really,...Keys??).
IL is a moderate state: admit it, deal with it, and ADAPT (...or die as a party).
Rep leadership needs to adopt a long view, not try kiss the @## of every extreme element, and build for the future. The party will die without unification. The first step would be UNIFIED support behind a moderate-leaning-right candidate to unite the party (vs. the moderate-leaning-left DEM state party).
Topinka's campaign fell apart the minute she won the primary--the conservatives took their toys and went home. They failed to put any money into her campaign after they tore her down in the primary and then stood idly by while the Blago campaign "heaped it on". To them they would rather loose the battle than loose the war. Its that thinking that is sinking the party.
"Conservatism" will never again get a foothold in IL again unless you get a "conservative-leaning" moderate first to open up the tent and bring back swing voters to the fold. Then (and only then) will any hope of leaning further to the right be possible.
The party will get plenty of opportunity to open the tent doors when the Blago "Smoke & Mirror" promises turn into fiscally mismanaged reality for IL taxpayers. Indictments, jail time for some big names and public trials will only make it easier. But, will they open the doors???
Plain and simple...
ZC
· 2 years ago
Judy Baar Topinka was too soon, because the Illinois Democratic party is not in meltdown yet (the knives aren't fully sharpened), and Rod hasn't yet been indicted. Also the Democrats have held off on any major tax hike. That can't last. If the GOP base takes Judy's defeat as a lesson that social moderate is the wrong way to go, they deserve the future defeats that are coming to them. Bottom line is the Democratic bench is very deep in this state, and even if Rod goes down in flames, the Democrats have a couple of credible candidates they could replace him with.
And as for the collapse of the Republican ticket in NY, CA, MA - I think that was going to happen anyway. Those are very Democratic states right now, if you look at how they vote nationally, and only when the Democrats misstep are the Republicans going to have a serious chance. the nation is getting far more polarized by party now, so that increasingly the national and the state politics are lining up - with the exception of many governor's mansions.
Anybody who claims to predict the shape of a state's politics 15-20 years out is crazy, in my opinion - I'm sure we eventually will see the Republican resurgence in Illinois, and maybe even a very socially conservative resurgence. But the best immediate hope for the IL GOP in the next 10-15 years is to continue to run social moderates for the top office and to use that as a platform to help rebuild the party brand at the lower levels.
the wonderboy
· 2 years ago
ISUDEM--Mitt didn't actually lose to Patrick...
NW burbs
· 2 years ago
I'd like to see the conservatives complete their slow takeover of IL-GOP. As others have noted, Illinois has never been a "conservative" state in the modern sense. The reigning GOPs were of the Rockefeller and Libertarian variety.
The more the nanny-state social conservatives dig into the Republican Party apparatus, the more those folks are going to split -- some to Dems, some to Libertarians, some to their living room sofas...
I agree with the social conservatives' premise that the two parties should offer a demonstrable difference in policy proposals and initiative agendas. That said, Illinois may grow even more Democratic should the differences be laid stark and bare (as evidenced informally by Green's analyses posted here and formally by Obama's victory over social conservative Alan Keyes).
You're right that Mitt didn't lose to Patrick but his hand picked running mate and successor, Lt. Gov Healey, of whom had he helped to victory would have been a hell of a feather in his cap during the primary race for President, lost and lost badly. She also ran some of the worst ads I've ever seen. Keep in mind, Mitt did nothing to help the streak of GOP Gov's in Mass. continue once he saw the writing on the walls. And back to ZC, those states, CA, NY, MA, are Democratic, but they had GOP Executive leaders that should have been able to provide coattails to down ticket candidates, and prove to the voters that just elected or re-elected them that others in their Party are not so bad, and in each case they failed and failed miserably. Hence why Patacki chose not to run, Arnold has taken a hard turn to the left, and Mitt is facing serious questions by GOP crazies that make up the primary voters. Oh and an aside with regards to Mitt; way to pick a xenophobe and major bigot's museum as your place to announce for the Presidency. Keep in mind that Ford had greatly admired Hitler who even, "bestowed the Grand Service Cross of the Supreme Order of the German Eagle," on his dear friend Henry Ford, the highest honor from the Third Reich. I guess Mitt is getting better at identifying who the true voters are in the GOP primary system in America.
Truthful James
· 2 years ago
The Republican Party is in ashes because of the atrophy of the party mechanism at the grass roots level and the absolutely inane behavior at the State level. I know of no other political organization, which having failed in every race under its control retained the same leadership. Resignation with honor is not an option for the State leader. Middle management -- at the County and Congressional District level has failed as these bosses maintain control by aggegating for themselves he voting power of precincts without committeemen.
At the grass roots level, precinct workers have remained for the longest time uneducated as to how to do their jobs, either than carry election materials. Township by Township, County by County there are numerous vacancies at the precinct level. The boss system is in place.
Precinct committeemen were always the key to electoral success. Programs of intra election voter registration and education were lost in the shuffle. There was, if you will, no job satisfaction, no motivation for these people to work.
It comes from the current Illinois law covering the republican Party organization. It is vastly different than the law concerning the Democratic Party. The latter encourages and rewards growth at the grass roots level. The former offers no such satisfactions.
There was legislation to fix this. SB 600 passed unanimously in the Senate. It was killed in the House by Skip Saviano, a supposed Cook County Republican who is an old time place holder who exists under sufference with and in alliance with the Democrat State Senator.
It is up for resubmission to the new General Assembly. It calls for direct election of Committement and State Committemen. With votes in hand in each precinct, that committeeman has an incentive to bring more people on board.
Reform, from the bottom up, is the only hope for the Republican Party in the State of Illinois. Will it happen? We shall see.
leigh
· 2 years ago
It is all going to depend on whether an indictment comes down for Blago. If it does I would say the dem's will need to duck and cover. It appears to me that some very high profile dems are already disassociating with the guv to save themselves. If the indictments come, then I would say the Republicans have a good chance of regaining some power.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
I'm not saying that a conservative could win a statewide election in Illinois. What I am saying is that a conservative that speaks to Blue Staters can sell an agenda and policies that are conservative. They just can't run and act like conservatives, because the majority of Illinois voters have stereotyped conservatives too negatively for them to succeed that way.
The majority of voters do support policies and agendas that are focused on economic growth, growing families and strong schools. Proven successes have occurred in attaining these goals in Red States.
Blue States are 20th Century states, not 21st. They are dying industrial giants. They have a higher percentage of senior voters. They have smaller families. They are high taxed states because voters in those states are worried about getting their fair share. This is Illinois.
Eventually, Illinois will continue to lose businesses, lag in population growth and slough off more representatives in Congress. As it craters toward a liberal socialist agenda, it will rot and continue losing any competative edge it held during our glorious Industrial Age.
Like Michigan, Illinois faces a very bleak future. So when will it turn from a Blue State agenda? I just couldn't say because when you look at Blue States, even in the case of New Jersey, it appears that they cling tighter to socialist policies the further they fail.
A Blue State miasma is my prediction for Illinois for the next generation. Young people in this state will most likely leave to Red States for the opportunities available there. We already see this happening, and this trend will continue. Any jolt from a pro-business, pro-family younger generation will be blunted by this exodus.
It is possible that another fluke will occur politically in Illinois, bringing a fresh 21st Century approach to government policies and breaking the doldrums, setting a new course for the state. I won't hold my breath, however.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
P.S. - I need to report that I was an avid student of Paul Green's, so I know he blows no smoke.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
Lots of interesting comments on this subject...
Bill, I like Vanilla Man and I enjoy reading your posts as well. I didn't get a hurrumph outta that guy!
Anyway, trends are just that: trends. George Ryan beat a much better candidate than himself because of money. The same COULD be said for Blago besting JBT, and please notice that I said could. If Glenn Poshard had beaten GRyan, the state GOP might be in a better position and might have more of a competent farm team. We might have held on to such seats as Phil Crane's CD, Laura Kent Donahue's senate seat and possibly even the U.S. Senate seat won by Barack-the-House.
In other states, you have to realize that issues and candidates play a huge role. In New York, was anybody short of Rudy Guiliani or Alphonse D'Amato really going to stop Eliot Spitzer? And in Massachussetts, was anyone other than Mitt Romney going to be able to best an African-American Democrat in a Democrat year? Those two candidates were practically unbeatable. And even though Ahnald won in Colley-fohnya, he has taken a left-hand turn very quickly.
And to the Dems who want to gloat about last year's landslide in the state: I truly believe that Bush's low ratings and the lingering problems from the GRyan years led to the losses of such good-to-great candidates as Christine Radogno, Sue Simpson, John Cavaletto, Ernie Russell, Terri Wintermute, Billie Roth and Steve Haring. Those, of course, are just a few of the many examples.
Cassandra
· 2 years ago
I'm not at all sure that an indictment of Blago would make any major difference to the overall Democratic fortuness in Illinois, given the overall leftward shift here over several decades. Unlike Utah (where, I recently read, there is a $1.6 billion state budget surplus and the state plans to offer some level of school vouchers to all children in the state including those already in private schools) Illinois is in the rust belt and its citizens need a lot of government help or think they do. And lots of government help is what liberal Dems want to provide, along with the power, patronage, corruption and inefficiency accompanying such programs. A welfare state.
There are very attractive Dems to replace Blago, such as Hynes, Lisa and Alexi, to name the most prominent. They could likely overcome the public relations problems of an indicted Blago better than JBT could, based on their youth, personality, and lots of $$$.
I could see state Dems subdividing into two or three factions (Madigan vs. Jones/Blago being a current example) and most battles in Illinois fought out that way for a couple of decades, while Republicans either remain factionalized or take the long road to building the party back up.
Or maybe not so long. Even political "experts" don't have a great record for predicting the future.
Anon
· 2 years ago
It is very sad this has become a one party state. I am a democrat and think we need a process other than the bosses. i.e, a two party system.
The GOP in Illinois is a mess, with out a Governor to provide smart advice and talking points for the County Chairman it is only going to get worse.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
I might also claim that good candidates nationally, such as Kenneth Blackwell and Michael Steele, lost due to the anti-Bush sentiment.
And George Allen and Thomas Kean, Jr., lost almost exclusively due to the shenanigans of the Bush Administration. Jim Webb had some very bad revelations come up and he still beat George Allen, and Robert Menendez' donor and friend list looked like "Goodfellas" and he still beat Thomas Kean, Jr. Seriously.
Truthful James
· 2 years ago
Rich -- A great thread.
Anon -- It isn't a smart governor Republicans need. It is a smart organization, communicating up and down, ameliorating differences. What Republicans have in the Illinois GOP is the Chairman doing an OK imitation as the Great Buddha.
Then he opens his mouth and informs Republicans that what the party needs is a self funding candidate for governor. Relieves him of a lot of work, dontcha know? The man is delusional.
But then the old godfathers don't want anything different They are making theirs.
But then he opens
Beowulf
· 2 years ago
Blagojevich being toppled from his perch due to corruption within his administration will NOT make voters run to vote Republican. I like Joe Birkett but it is simply wishful thinking on Joe's part.
Mike Madigan knew that Blagojevich was ultimately heading for a train wreck. Hence, Lisa Madigan has been groomed by Mike to take over as head of the Democrat Party when Rod goes down. Everybody likes Lisa and she has not been touched by the multitude of Democrat scandals that we have been seeing. Lisa's vote totals last election show that she would have been elected Governor last time if she had chosen to run for Governor.
Judy Barr Topinka was an outrageous candidate for the Illinois GOP to have gone with. Somebody in the GOP leadership must have thought that they could pull Judy's strings and she would dance to the GOP Party leadership's tune. Only the previous choice of Alan Keyes back when he replaced Jack Ryan could be considered more of a disastrous decision on the part of the Illinois GOP.
Emil Jones picked the wrong horse when he lined up with Blagojevich rather than Mike Madigan. Lisa is the top heavyweight contender for Illinois Governor come the next gubernatorial election.
respectful
· 2 years ago
One-party rule is the political reality in Illinois now and in the foreseeable future. To see what quality of government we get with one- party domination, just look at Chicago and the County of Cook.
amy
· 2 years ago
I'm amazed that Republicans in Illinois have not just hit the fiscal route to try and gain some traction. It's a so called traditionally Republican value, that is if they can get away from Bush and deficit governance, and if this state is socially liberal, they cannot hope to gain with the scary Christian Right. perhaps their business world view is polluted with too many Enrons, but Republicans claim themselves to be able to deal with numbers. Why can't they do that? usage levels, usage fees, site evaluation, hard choices for where services are provided and whether they work. actually, republican or democrat, I'd appreciate all levels of government in Illinois to do things this way.
Scott Lukas
· 2 years ago
Maybe Birkett will announce at the Addison Twp GOP meeting. After all they lost every state wide race including Sen Pankau. In 2010 Lisa TKOs Joe in 3 rounds----for the second time.
Disgusted
· 2 years ago
Starbucks: I didn't know they sold KoolAid at your establishment. The AllKids system is a fiasco and I work closely with it. Their staff can't make a decision to save their souls and physicians want no part of it.
Cassandra: Always remember, treachery and old age will overcome youth and enthusiasm every time. Just ask Emil and Mike. They've been around forever, much to the detriment of the citizens of this state.
Smitty Irving
· 2 years ago
After the 14 years of Big Jim's reign, the Illinois GOP was addicted to patronage, both payroller and pinstripe. It was only through Democratic problems that they were able to stretch that out to 26 years. But when you rule with patronage & pork, not ideas, it eventually all comes crumbling down.
Tweed
· 2 years ago
Vanilla Man,
Could you for once give some stats to back up your theory on the doom and gloom of Illinois' economy? All I ever read from you is that Illinois (specifically Chicago) is a dying place. Yet year after year Chicago's population grows or remains the same. The suburban population is booming. Your theories strike me as very 1980's when all of the factories were shutting down and people came up with the term Rust Belt. Well Chicago has survived even grown and the economy has adapted to the new trends of the marketplace.
I'm not saying it's all cheery for Chicago, but instead of giving us 80's talking points and telling us how Chicago is not prepared for the 21st Century, perhaps it is time to readjust your thoughts now that we are almost 1/10th of the way through the 21st century and doing quite fine.
In what speific ways could Chicago & Illinois improve? What states and industries are Chicago & Illinois losing out to? Don't just give me 'red states' and 'new industries'. I want some specifics.
Anon
· 2 years ago
Rich...keep up the good work; don't see where there was any partisanship, etc. in this posting.
Republicans in Illinois definitely have a problem and slowing losing the collar counties is one of them. However, statewide, Democrats need to be careful not to go too liberal as they could lose their southern Illinois Democrats who oftentimes are more conservative than some Republicans up north. It all gets to how far people want to let Chicago run the rest of the state.
T.J.
· 2 years ago
Sen. Radogno is also a moderate, but that didn’t help her in the treasurer’s race.
Birkett was the only Conservative on the statewide ticket, and the only one for whom one could not cast a vote directly.
Bubs
· 2 years ago
Arrogance broght the GOP low, But "Conservative!" will bring only woe. The problem inherent Is a view incoherent On where Illinois ought to go.
'Lainer
· 2 years ago
Team Sleep -- I think you're right in saying the GOP would be much better off today had Poshard won in '98 and cleaned out the Ryan crowd. I also think the Democratic party would have been much better off today had that happened. For one thing, it might have convinced them to widen THEIR "tent" to include social and fiscal conservatives, instead of just writing them all off. People who care about what's right and wrong, are willing to stand on principle and are willing to make sacrifices for the future good are not "extremists"; they are exactly the kind of people ANY political party needs. Especially with the fiscal train wreck looming in the state's future.
JBC
· 2 years ago
I second Tweed's concern over the VM post. Chicagoland seems to be growing/adapting quite well to the 21st century economy and has a seemingly unbeatable pro-biz mayor who made the corporate environment quite comfortable. What specifics do Red States (i.e. Indiana) offer that will prove the diference in 10-15 years.
Anon
· 2 years ago
Scott Lukas:
Would Lisa have won the AG race against Birkett if Mike Madigan wasn't her father? She would have been a laughable candidate because of her lack of prosecutorial experience. Daddy got her elected for her first term and running against Stu Umholtz last years was a no brainer.
Birkett is a self made man. No one pulled strings or pressured (use your imagination here) people to vote for him or else.
Lisa has a record now. Hope she runs on it in 2010 and not on her last name and her dad's influence if the field gets crowded.
And remember, Madigan's win over Birkett was by the slimest of margins, all things considered, so I wouldn't call it a TKO.
Anon
· 2 years ago
Scott Lukas:
Would Lisa have won the AG race against Birkett if Mike Madigan wasn't her father? She would have been a laughable candidate because of her lack of prosecutorial experience. Daddy got her elected for her first term and running against Stu Umholtz last years was a no brainer.
Birkett is a self made man. No one pulled strings or pressured (use your imagination here) people to vote for him or else.
Lisa has a record now. Hope she runs on it in 2010 and not on her last name and her dad's influence if the field gets crowded.
And remember, Madigan's win over Birkett was by the slimest of margins, all things considered, so I wouldn't call it a TKO.
steve schnorf
· 2 years ago
I'm really quite taken aback by all this. I thought with Kjellander out as national treasurer, the main issue around which so many rallied for the last 2 or 3 years, we would be entering the land of milk and honey. Surely with that enormous problem solved we'll go red in the next presidential, and retake the statehouse 2 years later. Madigan and Jones should tremble also; with Kjellander gone their majorities won't last much longer.
Truthful James
· 2 years ago
steve schnorf
thanks for the giggle.
You really have no idea how many of the conservative republicans told Andy McKenna to shove it. Kjellander was their pin up boy for throwing darts, since Big Jim Thompson was white shoeing money off Blago and Mr Edgar was in his Charleston hidey hole sticking his head out to announce that the party didn't need any conservative voters ...and the RNC took the position that Bobby K knows best as they sucked Republican money out of the state to give to other races. I hear that the IllGOP hotfingered only $9 Mil to support the state ticket.
Stevie, Kjellancer was a symbol, and symbols can excite or repel. Coupled with Judy B's picture marching with gay pride, a lot of the conservatives were motivated to stay out of sight.
Whatever the party will be by 2008 is anybody's guess. there might be an effort to rebuild from the precincts (which I suggested on this thread earlier) or they may stand shivering in the cold hoping for superfluous unripe nuts to be rolled down to them by the squirrels in charge in Springfield.
Scott Lukas
· 2 years ago
Anon 4:44-
Bring it on. Joe "self made man" Birkett will have an opportunity to be known as "o for three Joe"
decaturboy
· 2 years ago
Looks like a number of Macon Ccounty Democrats may be lining up to take on Sen. Frank Watson. Tim Dudley,a RRC trustee,an young black attorney named Small, and the front runner Macon COunty Auditor Amy Stockwell are said to be ready to take on Frank in what appears to a big Democratic year. Stockwell got her name out during a short bid to replace Lane Evans. Stockwell saved Macon County from financial dooms day. She is the best candidate to defeat Watson.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
Mr. Decatur, Frank will be able to raise enough dough to keep his seat. What that will mean to the rest of the field, however, remains to be seen. The question is whether or not Emil would be willing to put a huge challenge to Frank. Emil did very well in 2006 but he blew it big-time with the Lewandowski-Syverson race.
Mr. Schnorf, even though your sarcasm is funny ha-ha, K-J is a problem. As long as we have national figure in the party who has questionable ethics and ties to Karl Rove, the Dems can use that info against us in tight races. What if the State Central group doesn't man up and vote him out next spring? He will be in issue in the 2008 Senate race and all of the 2010 constitutional races. Karl Rove is just as unpopular as Bush, and his friendship with K-J is damning at best.
Mad Conservative Crimefighter
· 2 years ago
Rich Miller...YES I LIVE IN ILLINOIS. I thought it was a two term limit for governor. That's it.
For those saying, I'm talking to YOU Larry Mulholland, that I'm some Alan Keyes type of conservative...that's BULL...I am a RONALD REAGAN CONSERVATIVE. THAT is what is gonna bring the GOP back, promoting TRUE conservative prinicipals, not half-hearted, spineless people who are Republican in name only but really are in the wrong party.
respectful
· 2 years ago
Mad Conservative is aptly named. Going back to the '80s with Reagan-style conservatism will not inspire the 20-somethings flocking to Obama.
Nostradamus
· 2 years ago
The Gop's problems started under Big Jim T., when he fought C. Rutan and lost. That put an end to the county chairmen having political clout. It was hard for the older chairmen to accept. Then it was hard to find someone interested in being a committeman without some type of a reward. The next problem is the Political Powers that have run the party for the last 30 yrs., ie; BK, BC, DA,IS. They were at the "trough" all those years and didn't want to share. If they hadn't been so greedy and opened up the "tent" to the younger people interested in politics, we'd be better off. They should have lived by this quote,"PIGS GET FAT, HOGS GET SLAUGHTERED". Another big factor was Geo. Ryan. The dems. had been out so long, they promised the "World" to people and accepted all newcomers. Jobs was a big thing to their county chairmen. Even though it is illegal to use politics when hiring, the Gov and crew threw those rules and laws out the window. I think that the Republicans can make a come back, once PF gets done with Big "little man" Rod. These people will put their party in the same boat the Reps. were in. Finally, the Rep.party needs to stop all the fighting amongst themselves. We're like the Dems used to be. Get younger people involved.
the wonderboy
· 2 years ago
Mad Conservative--"promoting TRUE conservative prinicipals, not half-hearted, spineless people who are Republican in name only but really are in the wrong party"...well that should help grow the party. Well done.
As for the claim of being a Ronald Reagan Conservative: shich part of Reagan? The part that grew up admiring FDR and being a Democrat? The part that essentially avoided abortion discussion? People use that term in so many ways, and it has little definition. Many saw Reagan as a moderate, and yet others claim he was a neocon...please elaborate.
one who knows
· 2 years ago
Birkett needs to remember he does NOT have a clean slate to run on... He can run as fast and as far as he'd like, but he's not going to get far.
steve schnorf
· 2 years ago
You know, I really don't remember the Ds using KJ against us: we used it against ourselves quite effectively, though.
All Comments
At the heart of the dispute is the definition of success. On one hand, you have ideologues who define success as 'righteousness'; that is, ideologically pure candidates. The other group defines sucess as electoral victory; that is, winning elections, not necessarily affecting policy.
Until these two competing views of success are reconciled, expect blood on the floor.
Recent developments are putting Illinois Republicans in a desperate place, but that doesn't guarantee a continued trend. If Illinois Republicans are to win anything statewide, then there must be a change in leadership and a renewed commitment to allowing moderates to be a part of the team.
As usual, Prof. Green does not disappoint.
what are THEY thinking?
First the GOPs (as in MOPEs) bring Karl Rove (as in ) into IL. Then they let BrickheadJoe back on the road again. AND Then they let him talk about GRyan. Yipes.
What's next? Will JRyan and ChopperJim be on the loose.
Meanwhile, Dems can take a break
Regardless of the merits of your post, it is interesting that today you seek to highlight a "no news" report on the Democratic demographics of our state, while, on the other hand, you fail to even mention that the Cook County Republicans made a fresh start yesterday by electing a new County Chairman, Commissioner Elizabeth Doody Gorman.
Are you Democrats so insecure in your "majority" status that you have to regurgitate propaganda and bury the news?
In the future, you might want to take a deep breath before you act like a knee-jerk and assign motives where none exists.
Bring on the Brickhead -- Blagojevich will crush him in 2010.
Barack is and will continue to bring a newly interested generation into the D's big tent.
The radical right will continue to attempt to sabatoge the big tent concept justly supported by the moderates like Bob Kjellander.
The right wingnuts will continue to high five each other and slap themselves on the back just as they did in the last two (or three) elections. Illinois may never ever elect a conservative candidate (see conservatives Jim Ryan/Alan Keys election results).
Not a bright outlook for R's
That is, only if your name is Obama.
Is Barack exempt from ignoring the high levels of corruption in IL? He had no problem standing shoulder to shoulder with those in the eye of the U.S. Attorney storm. He ignored the chance to make a difference in the Nov. Elections, and is now the spokesman for ethics reform on the national level.
Birkett has a valid point about Blago's corruption. Can you deny that the public trust has been damaged? Yet, the voters have accepted that corruption is just a part of public service. Very discouraging.
To echo what the wonderboy commented earlier ... if the GOPers in this state want to resonate with voters and win, either with ideas or in the polls, they need to open their tent. The fact is many pockets of this state are unique demographically ... you have educators in wealthy areas that often vote Democratic on education and social issues but Republican on fiscal issues. You have laborers in many areas who might tend to vote Democratic on issues effecting their employment (and because Democrats don't tend to label unions as the devil's playground) but might tend to vote Republican on many social issues.
I, for one, believe it would behoove the Republican Party in this state to recognize that there are many moderates and independents in this State who might join them in their tent if the doors were open ... if the issues we talked about were more about people's lives and less about abortion, gay rights, and abortion. While those issues are near and dear to many, there are those of us who would like our politicians to be more about the bigger issues and less about the fringe.
Some folks here yelled that Rich is a Republican because he posted wall-to-wall stories about Blago's problems. Now you scream Rich is a Democrat because he posted on Prof. Green's article the GOP's woes. Conclusion: Goldilocks Rich Miller is getting it just right ! :)
As to the substance of the post, IL Dems can relate to the IL GOP's woes. Remember, IL Dems spent a generation out of the Governor's Mansion and years in the wilderness, and faced many of the same obstacles, e.g. Poshard's 1998 gov race and the ideological tests he faced and failed from more liberal elements of the party (when Ann Sathers on Belmont posted George Ryans signs in its front window, you knew Poshard was in trouble.)
In recent years, the IL GOP has tried unsuccessfully to sign big name talent (e.g. Alan Keyes and Mike Ditka for Senate, Jim Edgar for Gov) but is neglecting its farm team, i.e. younger state reps and smaller town mayors. These folks are your next generation of leaders. Give them opportunities to grow, expereience and lead. "But where can we get opportuntiies when Dems control the Mansion, the Statehouse and every Constitutional office ?," you ask. Look to the White House and GOP friends in DC. The GOP White House has countless task forces, advisory committees and other opportunities that may not be front page, but offer the chance to learn and grow.
See my comments above. I think you made my point EVEN MORE clealry.
To all others, SEE!!!! Do you see clearly the moderates are dealing with? That guy still has reading Alan Keys talking points as his screen saver.
Rod will never run in 2010. I think he will be dealing with an Irishman on some particular issues dogging him.
The corruption / indictment rumors are rampant. Blago's new low-profile in recent months sure looks like someone who's getting ready for a [edited by Miller - please don't swear in any form] storm, but who knows rumors are only rumors.
As for Joe Birkett, if the poor guy wants another job, they should rewrite the script for the play "Twelve Angry Men" to include some scenes with the prosecuting attorney. Then maybe cast member (and Birkett's brother-in-law) George wendt can help him land that part.
Chicagoland sets the thermostate of the state politically. So Illinois leans strongly Democratic. Thats is the way it is, and has been since 1930. The Thompson-Ryan years were a remarkable fluke. We are very unlikely to see another run of GOP governors like that anytime soon - especially with the conservatives running the GOP.
The bad news is: the candidate will not be a conservative GOP flag-bearer. IL is going more "blue" at the nationwide level, and what the IL GOP sorely needs is a standard bearer in the Schwarzenegger / Pataki / Mitt Romney model. If the GOP can figure out a way to position itself as a _check_ on the increasing Democratic tendencies of this state, it can win the governor's mansion and give something back to the conservative base on the side.
Expect the base to eventually figure this out. But maybe not in 2010.
Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. When business as usual continues and gets worse (and it is and will), a shift is certainly to occur. Democrats have complete power and they will screw it up over egos, jealousy, and internal power battles. We just might see the emergence of a consistent third party presence in Springfield when many more Democrats get fed up with their party leadership not delivering on promises despite complete control. Of course the shift could be back to the Republicans or it could be to other states as people leave the worsening quality of life in Illinois. Or maybe the Dems will wisen up and finally dump Madigan and Jones. Green seems to only be looking at the next election, which anyone could easily predict.
We lost every "competitive" race last November and we need new direction. We need new leadership and new ideas. But hey, don't listen to me or anything: I'm not a lobbyist or a check writer or a mope.
Another problem I see is that many of our players don't want to run for higher office. They are too concerned with losing out on their current office. Look at what Blago did in 2002: he ran for governor while he was still in Congress. Being a Congressman in either party is pretty awesome, but he rolled the dice and won. Yes, Rahm Emanuel was in place to succeed him, but to give up the throngs of D.C. to run a state is gutsy. Where are our players who are willing to do this?!
Also, folks who are preaching to the GOP about "opening up the tent" need to get a clue. As you were appearently in a coma last year, here's an update. The State GOP ran the most "moderate" statewide slate probably in history last year. The State GOP organization was on the side of Topinka even all through the primary. It didn't remain neutral and actually worked against the more conservative challengers.
News flash, Topinka got fewer votes than Keyes statewide. Yes, yes, I know Keyes ran in a Presidential year. But the fact remains, Topinka got fewer votes than Keyes.
If Topinka was so wonderful (as so many on here said) she should have been able to get more people to the polls, despite the year. She couldn't.
The GOP's problem isn't ideology. It's terrible mismanagement and horribly weak candidates.
As for JBT...not sure that this past election is indicative of how a moderate would fare in Illinois. JBT had to deal with issues such as George Ryan, a $16 million campaign by Rod, Voters coming out as a referendum on Iraq,and a poorly run campaign. JBT's loss cannot be generalized to future elections.
Birkett's campaign debt has been paid off for some time now. Try to do a little research....
IL is a moderate state: admit it, deal with it, and ADAPT (...or die as a party).
Rep leadership needs to adopt a long view, not try kiss the @## of every extreme element, and build for the future. The party will die without unification. The first step would be UNIFIED support behind a moderate-leaning-right candidate to unite the party (vs. the moderate-leaning-left DEM state party).
Topinka's campaign fell apart the minute she won the primary--the conservatives took their toys and went home. They failed to put any money into her campaign after they tore her down in the primary and then stood idly by while the Blago campaign "heaped it on". To them they would rather loose the battle than loose the war. Its that thinking that is sinking the party.
"Conservatism" will never again get a foothold in IL again unless you get a "conservative-leaning" moderate first to open up the tent and bring back swing voters to the fold. Then (and only then) will any hope of leaning further to the right be possible.
The party will get plenty of opportunity to open the tent doors when the Blago "Smoke & Mirror" promises turn into fiscally mismanaged reality for IL taxpayers. Indictments, jail time for some big names and public trials will only make it easier. But, will they open the doors???
Plain and simple...
And as for the collapse of the Republican ticket in NY, CA, MA - I think that was going to happen anyway. Those are very Democratic states right now, if you look at how they vote nationally, and only when the Democrats misstep are the Republicans going to have a serious chance. the nation is getting far more polarized by party now, so that increasingly the national and the state politics are lining up - with the exception of many governor's mansions.
Anybody who claims to predict the shape of a state's politics 15-20 years out is crazy, in my opinion - I'm sure we eventually will see the Republican resurgence in Illinois, and maybe even a very socially conservative resurgence. But the best immediate hope for the IL GOP in the next 10-15 years is to continue to run social moderates for the top office and to use that as a platform to help rebuild the party brand at the lower levels.
The more the nanny-state social conservatives dig into the Republican Party apparatus, the more those folks are going to split -- some to Dems, some to Libertarians, some to their living room sofas...
I agree with the social conservatives' premise that the two parties should offer a demonstrable difference in policy proposals and initiative agendas. That said, Illinois may grow even more Democratic should the differences be laid stark and bare (as evidenced informally by Green's analyses posted here and formally by Obama's victory over social conservative Alan Keyes).
The social conservatives' delusions of grandeur know few bounds. They are delighted to compare state senators's sex lives to porn stars and boast anti-Christian attitudes when it serves them ... yet they can't understand why a few thousand write-in votes for a Constitution Party candidate doesn't inherently mean that they're on their way to statewide domination.
At the grass roots level, precinct workers have remained for the longest time uneducated as to how to do their jobs, either than carry election materials. Township by Township, County by County there are numerous vacancies at the precinct level. The boss system is in place.
Precinct committeemen were always the key to electoral success. Programs of intra election voter registration and education were lost in the shuffle. There was, if you will, no job satisfaction, no motivation for these people to work.
It comes from the current Illinois law covering the republican Party organization. It is vastly different than the law concerning the Democratic Party. The latter encourages and rewards growth at the grass roots level. The former offers no such satisfactions.
There was legislation to fix this. SB 600 passed unanimously in the Senate. It was killed in the House by Skip Saviano, a supposed Cook County Republican who is an old time place holder who exists under sufference with and in alliance with the Democrat State Senator.
It is up for resubmission to the new General Assembly. It calls for direct election of Committement and State Committemen. With votes in hand in each precinct, that committeeman has an incentive to bring more people on board.
Reform, from the bottom up, is the only hope for the Republican Party in the State of Illinois. Will it happen? We shall see.
The majority of voters do support policies and agendas that are focused on economic growth, growing families and strong schools. Proven successes have occurred in attaining these goals in Red States.
Blue States are 20th Century states, not 21st. They are dying industrial giants. They have a higher percentage of senior voters. They have smaller families. They are high taxed states because voters in those states are worried about getting their fair share. This is Illinois.
Eventually, Illinois will continue to lose businesses, lag in population growth and slough off more representatives in Congress. As it craters toward a liberal socialist agenda, it will rot and continue losing any competative edge it held during our glorious Industrial Age.
Like Michigan, Illinois faces a very bleak future. So when will it turn from a Blue State agenda? I just couldn't say because when you look at Blue States, even in the case of New Jersey, it appears that they cling tighter to socialist policies the further they fail.
A Blue State miasma is my prediction for Illinois for the next generation. Young people in this state will most likely leave to Red States for the opportunities available there. We already see this happening, and this trend will continue. Any jolt from a pro-business, pro-family younger generation will be blunted by this exodus.
It is possible that another fluke will occur politically in Illinois, bringing a fresh 21st Century approach to government policies and breaking the doldrums, setting a new course for the state. I won't hold my breath, however.
Bill, I like Vanilla Man and I enjoy reading your posts as well. I didn't get a hurrumph outta that guy!
Anyway, trends are just that: trends. George Ryan beat a much better candidate than himself because of money. The same COULD be said for Blago besting JBT, and please notice that I said could. If Glenn Poshard had beaten GRyan, the state GOP might be in a better position and might have more of a competent farm team. We might have held on to such seats as Phil Crane's CD, Laura Kent Donahue's senate seat and possibly even the U.S. Senate seat won by Barack-the-House.
In other states, you have to realize that issues and candidates play a huge role. In New York, was anybody short of Rudy Guiliani or Alphonse D'Amato really going to stop Eliot Spitzer? And in Massachussetts, was anyone other than Mitt Romney going to be able to best an African-American Democrat in a Democrat year? Those two candidates were practically unbeatable. And even though Ahnald won in Colley-fohnya, he has taken a left-hand turn very quickly.
And to the Dems who want to gloat about last year's landslide in the state: I truly believe that Bush's low ratings and the lingering problems from the GRyan years led to the losses of such good-to-great candidates as Christine Radogno, Sue Simpson, John Cavaletto, Ernie Russell, Terri Wintermute, Billie Roth and Steve Haring. Those, of course, are just a few of the many examples.
There are very attractive Dems to replace Blago, such as Hynes, Lisa and Alexi, to name the most prominent. They could likely overcome the public relations problems of an indicted Blago better than JBT could, based on their youth, personality, and lots of $$$.
I could see state Dems subdividing into two or three factions (Madigan vs. Jones/Blago being a current example) and most battles in Illinois fought out that way for a couple of decades, while Republicans either remain factionalized or take the long road to building the party back up.
Or maybe not so long. Even political "experts" don't have a great record for predicting the future.
The GOP in Illinois is a mess, with out a Governor to provide smart advice and talking points for the County Chairman it is only going to get worse.
And George Allen and Thomas Kean, Jr., lost almost exclusively due to the shenanigans of the Bush Administration. Jim Webb had some very bad revelations come up and he still beat George Allen, and Robert Menendez' donor and friend list looked like "Goodfellas" and he still beat Thomas Kean, Jr. Seriously.
Anon -- It isn't a smart governor Republicans need. It is a smart organization, communicating up and down, ameliorating differences. What Republicans have in the Illinois GOP is the Chairman doing an OK imitation as the Great Buddha.
Then he opens his mouth and informs Republicans that what the party needs is a self funding candidate for governor. Relieves him of a lot of work, dontcha know? The man is delusional.
But then the old godfathers don't want anything different They are making theirs.
But then he opens
Mike Madigan knew that Blagojevich was ultimately heading for a train wreck. Hence, Lisa Madigan has been groomed by Mike to take over as head of the Democrat Party when Rod goes down. Everybody likes Lisa and she has not been touched by the multitude of Democrat scandals that we have been seeing. Lisa's vote totals last election show that she would have been elected Governor last time if she had chosen to run for Governor.
Judy Barr Topinka was an outrageous candidate for the Illinois GOP to have gone with. Somebody in the GOP leadership must have thought that they could pull Judy's strings and she would dance to the GOP Party leadership's tune. Only the previous choice of Alan Keyes back when he replaced Jack Ryan could be considered more of a disastrous decision on the part of the Illinois GOP.
Emil Jones picked the wrong horse when he lined up with Blagojevich rather than Mike Madigan. Lisa is the top heavyweight contender for Illinois Governor come the next gubernatorial election.
just hit the fiscal route to try and gain some
traction. It's a so called traditionally Republican
value, that is if they can get away from Bush and
deficit governance,
and if this state is socially liberal, they cannot
hope to gain with the scary Christian Right.
perhaps their business world view is polluted with
too many Enrons, but Republicans claim themselves
to be able to deal with numbers. Why can't they do that? usage levels, usage fees, site evaluation,
hard choices for where services are provided
and whether they work. actually, republican
or democrat, I'd appreciate all levels of
government in Illinois to do things this way.
Cassandra: Always remember, treachery and old age will overcome youth and enthusiasm every time.
Just ask Emil and Mike. They've been around forever, much to the detriment of the citizens of this state.
Could you for once give some stats to back up your theory on the doom and gloom of Illinois' economy? All I ever read from you is that Illinois (specifically Chicago) is a dying place. Yet year after year Chicago's population grows or remains the same. The suburban population is booming. Your theories strike me as very 1980's when all of the factories were shutting down and people came up with the term Rust Belt. Well Chicago has survived even grown and the economy has adapted to the new trends of the marketplace.
I'm not saying it's all cheery for Chicago, but instead of giving us 80's talking points and telling us how Chicago is not prepared for the 21st Century, perhaps it is time to readjust your thoughts now that we are almost 1/10th of the way through the 21st century and doing quite fine.
In what speific ways could Chicago & Illinois improve? What states and industries are Chicago & Illinois losing out to? Don't just give me 'red states' and 'new industries'. I want some specifics.
Republicans in Illinois definitely have a problem and slowing losing the collar counties is one of them. However, statewide, Democrats need to be careful not to go too liberal as they could lose their southern Illinois Democrats who oftentimes are more conservative than some Republicans up north. It all gets to how far people want to let Chicago run the rest of the state.
Birkett was the only Conservative on the statewide ticket, and the only one for whom one could not cast a vote directly.
But "Conservative!" will bring only woe.
The problem inherent
Is a view incoherent
On where Illinois ought to go.
Would Lisa have won the AG race against Birkett if Mike Madigan wasn't her father? She would have been a laughable candidate because of her lack of prosecutorial experience. Daddy got her elected for her first term and running against Stu Umholtz last years was a no brainer.
Birkett is a self made man. No one pulled strings or pressured (use your imagination here) people to vote for him or else.
Lisa has a record now. Hope she runs on it in 2010 and not on her last name and her dad's influence if the field gets crowded.
And remember, Madigan's win over Birkett was by the slimest of margins, all things considered, so I wouldn't call it a TKO.
Would Lisa have won the AG race against Birkett if Mike Madigan wasn't her father? She would have been a laughable candidate because of her lack of prosecutorial experience. Daddy got her elected for her first term and running against Stu Umholtz last years was a no brainer.
Birkett is a self made man. No one pulled strings or pressured (use your imagination here) people to vote for him or else.
Lisa has a record now. Hope she runs on it in 2010 and not on her last name and her dad's influence if the field gets crowded.
And remember, Madigan's win over Birkett was by the slimest of margins, all things considered, so I wouldn't call it a TKO.
thanks for the giggle.
You really have no idea how many of the conservative republicans told Andy McKenna to shove it. Kjellander was their pin up boy for throwing darts, since Big Jim Thompson was white shoeing money off Blago and Mr Edgar was in his Charleston hidey hole sticking his head out to announce that the party didn't need any conservative voters ...and the RNC took the position that Bobby K knows best as they sucked Republican money out of the state to give to other races. I hear that the IllGOP hotfingered only $9 Mil to support the state ticket.
Stevie, Kjellancer was a symbol, and symbols can excite or repel. Coupled with Judy B's picture marching with gay pride, a lot of the conservatives were motivated to stay out of sight.
Whatever the party will be by 2008 is anybody's guess. there might be an effort to rebuild from the precincts (which I suggested on this thread earlier) or they may stand shivering in the cold hoping for superfluous unripe nuts to be rolled down to them by the squirrels in charge in Springfield.
Bring it on. Joe "self made man" Birkett will have an opportunity to be known as "o for three Joe"
Tim Dudley,a RRC trustee,an young black attorney named Small, and the front runner Macon COunty Auditor Amy Stockwell are said to be ready to take on Frank in what appears to a big Democratic year.
Stockwell got her name out during a short bid to replace Lane Evans. Stockwell saved Macon County from financial dooms day. She is the best candidate to defeat Watson.
Mr. Schnorf, even though your sarcasm is funny ha-ha, K-J is a problem. As long as we have national figure in the party who has questionable ethics and ties to Karl Rove, the Dems can use that info against us in tight races. What if the State Central group doesn't man up and vote him out next spring? He will be in issue in the 2008 Senate race and all of the 2010 constitutional races. Karl Rove is just as unpopular as Bush, and his friendship with K-J is damning at best.
For those saying, I'm talking to YOU Larry Mulholland, that I'm some Alan Keyes type of conservative...that's BULL...I am a RONALD REAGAN CONSERVATIVE. THAT is what is gonna bring the GOP back, promoting TRUE conservative prinicipals, not half-hearted, spineless people who are Republican in name only but really are in the wrong party.
he fought C. Rutan and lost. That put an end to
the county chairmen having political clout. It was
hard for the older chairmen to accept. Then it was
hard to find someone interested in being a committeman without some type of a reward. The
next problem is the Political Powers that have
run the party for the last 30 yrs., ie; BK, BC,
DA,IS. They were at the "trough" all those years
and didn't want to share. If they hadn't been so
greedy and opened up the "tent" to the younger
people interested in politics, we'd be better off.
They should have lived by this quote,"PIGS GET FAT, HOGS GET SLAUGHTERED".
Another big factor was Geo. Ryan.
The dems. had been out so long, they promised the
"World" to people and accepted all newcomers. Jobs
was a big thing to their county chairmen. Even
though it is illegal to use politics when hiring,
the Gov and crew threw those rules and laws out
the window. I think that the Republicans can make
a come back, once PF gets done with Big "little
man" Rod. These people will put their party in the
same boat the Reps. were in.
Finally, the Rep.party needs to stop all the fighting amongst themselves. We're like the Dems
used to be. Get younger people involved.
As for the claim of being a Ronald Reagan Conservative: shich part of Reagan? The part that grew up admiring FDR and being a Democrat? The part that essentially avoided abortion discussion? People use that term in so many ways, and it has little definition. Many saw Reagan as a moderate, and yet others claim he was a neocon...please elaborate.