I don't think he'd have any support from the south side. What has he done for residents there lately?
Ghost
· 6 months ago
I think he could win against Stroger; I just dont see Stroger surviving as the dem canidate.
Fire Ron Guenther
· 6 months ago
Claypool and Preckwinkle split anti-Stroger vote in primary. Stroger wins nomination. Cook County Dem Central Committee does one of two things:
a) keeps Stroger on ballot, afraid to alienate black voters. Vallas wins.
b) Dumps Stroger, nominates someone a hack, Vallas wins.
c) Dumps Stroger, nominates someone qualified, Vallas touts his reform credentials and wins.
Keep in mind that if Claypool & Preckwinkle run in the primary and lose they cannot run in the general election.
Steve
· 6 months ago
Paul Vallas could win if government workers weren't allowed to vote. We know that's not going to happen. The Democratic registration advantage is something Republicans can't overcome in Cook County.
corvax
· 6 months ago
i think he'd be competitive against any names mentioned (Stroger, Brown, Claypool, Preckwinkle, et al) and beats the first two.
he did very well versus blago in south and north cook suburban townships--voters not likely to be put off by the repub label or the party-switching. he'll still have lots of appeal in the city where he also bested blago (losing to Burris i think).
the capmpaingn mantra can switch from what have you done for me lately to what have the dems done TO you lately.
OneMan
· 6 months ago
I think vs. Stroger he could pull it off. Enough anger at Todd (and the media will keep it going) that it would a posibility.
vs Claypool he has a tougher road ahead.
tubbfan
· 6 months ago
I thought he was going to run for Governor as a Repub?
Big West
· 6 months ago
Vallas certainly can win. Peraica came awful close, particularly for a Republican. Peraica's problem was himself. Traditionally Democratic voters were scared of Tony's more conservative bent and decided that a bad Todd Stroger was better than scary Tony Peraica. That's unlikely to happen to Vallas, who is both a known quantity and not scary to liberals. Should Stroger win the nomination, Vallas is likely to get an enthusiastic margin from liberals in the north suburbs, lakefront, and Oak Park. Combined with an big overallsuburban victory, and he's in.
Ghost
· 6 months ago
he needs to hire Cobb to run his campaign and start talking about himself in the Third person.
Vallas: A renewed and experienced Vallas is what the people of Cook county need. Vallas is here to help the cook county.
wordslinger
· 6 months ago
I think he would do it if some bigfoot like Thompson or McKenna could show him the path to raise $3 million to get on TV.
2ConfusedCrew
· 6 months ago
ZERO Paul Might not make it through the Circular Firing Squad primary process...where is he on guns, choice, gays, etc..... Plus no one can explain how to poy for jails and hospital
Anonymous
· 6 months ago
who can have respect for such an unprincipled man?
Bill
· 6 months ago
None. Vallas is a poor candidate with one race on his resume. He is a loser. He doesn't have any money. He can't talk, has a failed record with pubic school systems in three cities and is anti-labor. So were does his support come from? Palatine? How many voters live there. Besides, does anyone think Crazy Tony is gonna just roll over for Vallas?
fedup dem
· 6 months ago
I don't see how Vallas can win. Without a unified African-american voting base, Toddler has no chance of being the Democratic nominee (and Preckwinkle's candidacy will take care of that).
The general election matchup would likely be Vallas vs. Claypool. Given a choice between the ex-Daley aide who defected to the Republicans and the ex-Daley aide who remained a Democrat, just where do you expect voters in overwhelmingly Democratic Cook County to turn to? Besides, Vallas' record of turning the Chicago public schools from an abomination to merely being rotten is hardly a ringing testimonial for Vallas.
OneMan
· 6 months ago
==who can have respect for such an unprincipled man?== there are people who will vote for Stroger reguardless.
Niles Township
· 6 months ago
Vallas wins only if Stroger gets nominated which I do not think is likely. Vallas should run for governor or senator with GOP. He'll have a better chance in a general with those offices if he can get past the primary.
Insight
· 6 months ago
1) Stroger repeals the sales tax increase, narrowly winning the primary;
2) No other Republican runs, handing Vallas the nomination.
3) Vallas manages to pay off his 2002 campaign debts first.
But isn't this moot? I thought the Mayor of New Orleans announced Vallas was staying?
John Doe
· 6 months ago
A ringing endoresement of Vallas by Andy McKenna or Big Jim Thompson will do Paul Vallas more harm than good. If Vallas decides to run on the Republican ticket, he will do himself a world of good if he publicly states that "Although I am running on the GOP ballot, I answer to no man nor any party other than my own conscience and what is good for the people." Voters (GOP, Dems, & Independents) have all reached the saturation point on partisan politics and self-serving politicians.
VanillaMan
· 6 months ago
Can Vallas win? Yes! Here's how!
Dawn of the GOP Dead
Chicago is struck by a pandemic of reanimated zombies, who now have no other desire than to feast on the wages of the living. The cause of the plague is not fully understood by the political community. Despite desperate efforts by the U.S. Government and local civil authorities to control the situation, society has effectively collapsed and the remaining wage earners seek refuge in Indiana. Increasingly infrequent television and radio broadcasts imply that chaos is spreading throughout the county.
This scenario opens in the television studio of WGN in Chicago, where confusion reigns. Paul Vallas a GOP political hero, who earlier stole a helicopter to Louisiana in order to escape the zombie threat, returns when the Chicago Tribune editorial board shines a floodlight into the Loop skyline of a GOP elephant silhouette.
Meanwhile, caught in Chicago for a small GOP fundraiser, Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin led Chicago's SWAT force to raid a tenement building because the residents are ignoring the martial law imposition of delivering the zombies over to National Guard and evacuating private dwellings. The peaceful residents are attacked by their own elected officials, who emerge from their rooms, reanimated by the zombie infection. During the raid, Palin meets Illinois Governor Patrick Quinn, who is part of another SWAT unit. Governor Palin suggests deserting their SWAT force and fleeing the city in Vallas' helicopter later that night. Soon, they find the basement packed full of undead Cook County officials that the living residents had kept from being seized by the National Guard, and the two defeat the zombies.
Later that night, Governors Palin and Quinn meet up with Vallas on the TV station's helipad and they escape Chicago in the station's helicopter, with the intention of reaching the safety of the Alaskan wilderness. During their long flight, they make a pass over Springfield where National Guard troops and GOP vigilantes are taking the situation in stride, combating zombies while holding a political rally against abortion. They see Palin waving from Vallas' helicopter and cheer, as Palin joyfully points a machine gun into the sky and fires and hollar support for the GOPers below. The group stops for fuel at a private airstrip, where Governors Palin and Quinn are both nearly bitten and Vallas nearly shoots Quinn while aiming at a reanimated politician.
Looking for a place to rest, they spot an indoor shopping mall, naturally empty since the Governor's economic policies had drove Illinois businesses bankrupt. After finding that much of the mall is free from zombies, they look for a way in. They find a hidden storage room filled with food which they can get to by breaking a skylight and climbing down a ladder. Finding the area safe, they rest and eat some rations.
Palin and the men now decide to make the mall their own sanctuary, and though Vallas is skeptical, they start enacting her plan. First, to keep the undead from entering the mall, they block the large acrylic glass entrance doors with semi trucks. During this endeavor, Quinn acts recklessly and is bitten by Filan, a Blagojevich appointee who Quinn kept on after becoming governor. Next, the group drive around in a display car, locking up entrance doors. Finally, they destroy the remaining undead inside with armaments they acquired from a gun shop inside the mall, which would make no sense at all, except remember, they are in a Downstate Illinois mall.
Now that the mall is safe, they learn that society outside of the mall is continuing to collapse. Quinn slowly succumbs to the infection, but asks Palin to kill him up as he wants to try "not to come back." Palin reminds Quinn that she is pro-life, and only kills endangered species, which Democrats do not fall under. Quinn dies from the Filan bite he suffered moving the trucks. Palin gives him his chance, but as Quinn's body is reanimated, he begins to discuss raising massive taxes. Palin pistol-whips Quinn and locks him up in the mall basement. Later, stricken with boredom and hopelessness, the novelty of their materialistic utopia wears thin. Our scenario ends as Vallas flies away from the mall at dawn in the helicopter to become Cook County President, as Governor Palin announces her campaign for the US Presidency.
That's how!
Wumpus
· 6 months ago
Vallas is the man who threatened Daley! Arne Duncan took credit for his work (and has a better jump shot) and is now SecEd.
Vallas went to help Philly Schools.
Vallas went to help NOLA and their schools rebuild after one of the worst (modern) disasters in US history.
Finally, Vallas is coming back to IL. He tried to warn us in 2002, but voters didn't listen. The men who were his defeators proved to be in as much collusion now as they were then, Blago and Burris.
Vallas has never backed down from a challenge. He is here to save us all!
He will win if Black voters remember he cares. If he can get through the primary vs. who, Peracia? The GOP needs to realize that he is the best candidate. The Oberwies/Roessers will stay out (I hope) as this is basically the city and Cook.
I was beign over the top, but he can win.
Anonymous
· 6 months ago
one man - i meant vallas obviously...but i get your point.
John Bambenek
· 6 months ago
The entire concept of recruiting a lifelong Democrat to run as a Republican despite not changing any of his core beliefs and never helping a single Republican says all anyone needs to know about the health of the Party.
Phineas J. Whoopee
· 6 months ago
Vallas could beat Stroger or Claypool. There is enough resentment against the present board pres. that he is a lame duck. Claypool would be tougher but it could be done.
I don't think Vallas would beat Preckwinkle or a dark horse like Terry O'Brien who don't bring the baggage the former two do.
I am assuming Vallas has the money to get his message out and isn't vilified by his new party-two big ifs. If he could get guys like Mayor Nagin and others to campaign for him, I think he could carry the black community against Claypool.
Wumpus
· 6 months ago
Phinneas, Ray Nagin? How about a campaign fundraising luncheon keynoted by Nagin and William Jefferson?
scoot
· 6 months ago
Yes Vallas can win. I believe that voters will vote for the individual and not for the party, especially if it's Stroger v. Vallas.
A recent poll showed Claypool getting trounced by Vallas based on their names. When party ID was involved it was 50/50. AND I have no idea why Cook County wouldn't want a successful County Prez w/ Vallas's resume??
Adding that Peraica came close to winning in the strong Democratic year of 2006, so it's very possible that Vallas can win.
therealdeal
· 6 months ago
The only candidate that can emerge and beat Paul Vallas is Cong. Danny K. Davis -- blacks, progressive whites and latinos will vote for him -- i believe recent polls suggestg that he polls well not only county wide but statewide -- very few negatives.
Preckwinkle and Claypoll have name recognition problems and I don't think that Stroger can win under any circumstances -- it would be hard even if his father was resurrected.
Vallas will have to explain his absence from Illinois politics -- is he really a carpetbagger?
We love to hate our politicians but we love loyalty more than anything else -- and Vallas has not been loyal to Illinoians.
SSide
· 6 months ago
Vallas still has debt from his last campaign-stiffing many vendors. He needs to pay up first before thinking of moving forward.
Third Generation Chicago Nativ
· 6 months ago
Cook County is not ready for a Republican President. After how much Todd Stroger angered the people of his county, with what he did in office(too long to go into here), and how he got in (all the commotion about his Dad's true health condition, to his resignation right after the deadline for opponents passed), they still voted him in.
The Republicans should try and get him to run for Governor, he has a much better chance for this office, than Cook County President.
jaundiced eye
· 6 months ago
Thank you, Vanilla Man, as always for your sense of humor and political smarts -- both of which set you apart from many other posters on this site. The real question to me is: Who is behind a Vallas' Republican candidacy? And why ...
Louis G. Atsaves
· 6 months ago
Yes Vallas can win. There is a huge resentment factor and anger against the current County Board and Todd Stroger. Should Stroger survive the primary, Vallas would defeat him. Should some one else emerge, Vallas still has a good shot.
Vallas will get a ton of free press, mostly positive, about his accomplishments both here in the region and in other parts of the country, which should offset any shortfalls in financing his campaign. That free press will not be available to other challengers. Vallas was the guy the power brokers ran out of town after he ran for governor. Those same power brokers offered him nothing to stick around.
Vallas can and should rightfully portray himself as the good government policy wonk reformer guy the Democrats in Cook County and Chicago ran out of town. Those parking meters in Chicago, the sales tax in Cook County and the general attitude by the current office holders in Cook County and the City of Chicago that the residents serve them and not the other way around will lead to his election.
On occasion, Republicans get elected to county wide offices in Cook County, usually in times of voter resentment and anger. Get ready for lightning to strike again.
L.S.
· 6 months ago
A head to head with Stroger alone and a strong Claypool endorsement is the only thing I can think that would pave the way for a Repub. in Cook. Any other circumstance and the Dem. registration numbers will be too high to overcome. Let's not forget that this guy has been out of the state for so long that when he left, Barack Obama was just another state senator and Rod Blagojevich was an up and comer with high approval ratings. His ship has sailed.
irishpirate
· 6 months ago
Well if Stroger gets the Democratic nomination Vallas could win easily.
I'm a democrat and I've only voted for Repubs twice in my life. I voted for Judy Topinka over Blago and crazy Tony Peraica over Stroger. I'd vote for Vallas before anyone else. I admire the man and it would tick off "the powers that be".
All that being said I think the most likely scenario is Claypool wins the primary and then it's Claypool V Vallas. I'd have to give the slight advantage to Claypool in that case. Cook County is overwhelmingly Democrat and Claypool MIGHT be able to get Obama to campaign for him.
In the 2006 race it was clear Obama preferred Claypool over the elder Stroger, but being overly cautious he didn't endorse anyone. Not a great moment in courage for our President.
ILPundit
· 6 months ago
I think Vallas would be very well positioned for the following reasons:
1. In about 3 months, the coming meltdown at the state level is going to combine with the already toxic anti-Stroger anger to create a potent, anti-Democrat backlash in Illinois. Who wants to vote for the gang that can't shoot straight?
2. Vallas is a darling of the editorial boards, and his entry will be hailed as a potential savior to all of our ills.
3. Vallas still has strong popularity in the African American community, and no matter what happens in the Democratic primary, a large segment of that community is going to be disgruntled with the Democratic party because one of their candidates (Preckwinkle or Stroger) did not win.
4. Because of the massive Democratic party dysfunction in Illinois, it is going to be a magnet for national GOP money -- especially because it is Obama's home state. Vallas will have all the money he needs, and more.
Argonaut
· 6 months ago
If Stroger wins the primary the party will work hard for his reelection and I would guess that he would, in the end, receive a strong vote in the African American community. Stroger defeats Vallas though Vallas could make a race of it. The same is true of Preckwinkle who may very well be the strongest general election candidate. However, if Claypool wins the primary, Vallas can win by pulling together a coalition of Rebublicans, reformers who do not trust Claypool because of his previous tenure spent in the Daley inner circle and African-Americans. Because of his schools tenure, Vallas can get those votes in a way no other Republican candidate could. He is credible and not politically extreme. It would be close, but certainly doable.
lake county democrat
· 6 months ago
Scenario 1: As Fire Ron G. said, if Stroger wins the Dem primary, Vallas has a decent shot.
Scenario 2: Some no-name white guy wins the Dem primary and the Dems don't have an African-American on the ticket. Say Stroger/T.P./F.C. all split and someone else slipped-in.
just sayin
· 6 months ago
If Jesus Christ came back and ran as a Republican he wouldn't win in Cook County. That's how Blue it is now.
Consider that Obama got more votes in Cook alone last year than Topinka did in the entire state in 2006. A lot more.
Add to that the fact that the Cook GOP is a bigger joke than ever.
Some people may have warm feelings about Vallas now (why I'm not sure - he left the Chicago schools as bad as he found them). But that all changes when the Democrats start painting Vallas as the traitor to the party he would make himself.
Someone needs to ask Vallas who he favored for president last year. If he says Obama, then his party conversion is exposed as phony to Republicans. If he says McCain, then he alienates a boatload of Cook voters.
Let's see how he handles it.
Rob_N
· 6 months ago
Doesn't a candidate in the primary need to a be a resident of the jurisdiction for 1 year prior to the primary?
Vallas running is a moot point.
N'ville
· 6 months ago
Kirk for U.S. Senate, Brady for Governor, Vallas for County Board President. Good combination of city/suburbs/downstate.
312
· 6 months ago
I really don't think Vallas ought to run as a Republican - the numbers aren't there, plus the right wing would make mincemeat of him.
If he decides to run, Vallas should run as an Independent. Rise above the Dem circular firing squad with Claypool, Preckwinkle & Stroger (whoever comes out on top in that primary will be a mess). Plus, the Dem organization turned their back on him in 2002, so why should he come back to them? The Republicans will probably put forward a right wing-nut or wrong-way Tony. In a 3-way race, Vallas comes out on top.
His reform cred, and his independence (ie, run as an Independent, outside of the "organizations") is what's attractive to voters.
NOT REPUBLICAN. INDEPENDENT!
hmmm
· 6 months ago
...Joe Birkett for AG, and you have the white males club all over again.
anon
· 6 months ago
I can see why they have money problems.
Leroy
· 6 months ago
Who cares if Vallas wins or not? All we'd be doing is replacing the Stroger brand of corruption & nepotism with the Vallas brand of corruption & nepotism. How exactly do I win as a voter?
And if you do that, a whole lot of people are going to be upset they are shut out of a system they once controlled. The sob stories are going to be endless in the media. I don't see how I win under that scenario, either.
phocion
· 6 months ago
I know this is going to sound outlandish, that it could never happen, but here's a scenario on how Vallas can win:
Step 1. Paul Vallas is running a close race. Step 2. Vallas suffers a debilitating stroke. Step 3. Vallas' opponent is stymied, unable to criticize the stricken Vallas. Step 4. Vallas' camp assures the public that while he is ill, he will fully recover, and asks for their prayers. Step 5. Vallas wins.
the Other Anonymous
· 6 months ago
I have to disagree with all the commenters that say that Vallas has no chance to win as a Republican because Cook County is so overwhelmingly Democratic. First, few voters will actually think of Vallas as a bona-fide Republican. Second, Democratic voters turned on Blagojevich -- many will turn on Stroger as well in the general election, especially as penance for voting for Rod.
Two things have to happen for Vallas to win. One, he has to face a weak opponent. I'd say right now Stroger qualifies as weak, and possibly Brown as well. Two, he has to get out of the GОP primary. This one is tougher; as the GOP shrinks in Cook County, its primary voters become disproportionately ultra-right wing and ideological. I think Peraica running a subtle race-baiting campaign has the edge.
Ghost
· 6 months ago
Investigators searching for the roote cause of the Dawn of the GOP Dead were surpsied to find that there were a number of anti-zombie programs in place. These programs successfully curred or removed the tax eating zombie from society and replaced them with wage earners. Investigators were startled to learn that all hese prgrams were rmeoved when the GOP claimed they were too expnsive anmd shut down all zombie rehabilitation and removal programs in favor of reduced taxes, exponentialy increasing the zombies.
The last wgae earner was seen trying to get to Palin to tell her the tax eaters were actually made of peny wuise pound foolish former wage earners who were infected due to their own short sitedness and unwillingess to address the zombie problem.
Palin simple muttered braiiiins, killed and ate the man.
WaxonWaxoff
· 6 months ago
Vallis' Hamlet routine has worn thin. The man has never held elective office in his life. I am sure in a City of 12,000,000 we can find somene better suited than Vallis. Leave Paul in peace to dine and wine in the Quarter!
If the Trib is going to lobby and put up candidates should't they be regulated by state campaign law? Should't they also face public finaincing caps given their penchant to sell the Cubs to Blago?
doc
· 6 months ago
Fire Ron - You're mistaken, a primary loser can later be slated to run in the SAME party for the General Election. He just can't be slated by any OTHER party (or run as an independent).
slow down
· 6 months ago
Vallas is a blank slate right now for most people. People think they know him even though he hasn't been around for years. The gullible are imputing all their happy thoughts and dreams on him.
But his real record won't stand up to the happy thoughts. He's got plenty of baggage and lots of critics from the cities where he's made a lot of money but had mixed results, at best. He is good at taking credit.
Vallas will never poll higher than he does today. The day he announces a run (if he does) will be the day his numbers start to fall.
By the way, I'm certainly not suggesting that nut Peraica is a better option.
wordslinger
· 6 months ago
-- I am sure in a City of 12,000,000 we can find somene better suited than Vallis. --
What city is that, and who is Vallis?
JonShibleyFan
· 6 months ago
There's a Cook County in Georgia, population 15,000.
Just sayin'
Alice
· 6 months ago
The really interesting thing is what else happens if Vallas runs in the Cook County primaries on GOP ballot. --> Kirk has a chance for Senate seat. :o) (More non-partisans reach for GOP ballot.)
I tend to agree with all who say Vallas has a real chance of winning, especially that he would run from GOP side - he's a liberal and we all know it and it would give the voter a perfect opportunity to stick it to the Dems without actually betraying one's views. And Cook County Dems deserve it and we all want to stick it to them, oh, we want it sooo much! I just don't see IL GOP smart enough to let it happen. Vallas winning primaries would mean huge changes in GOP. And we need 2 parties. This would be good for all. It could be a blueprint for the entire country. But it's IL, smart things like that don't happen here... The parties are too entrenched to allow change.
So my bet is he's not going to run. This is just an academic discussion...
WaxonWaxoff
· 6 months ago
Duh CHICAGO, and the guy that lives in New Orleans that the Tribune thinks should save us from ourselves.
Reformer
· 6 months ago
A fact to ponder: Five months ago, Tony Peraica got a whopping 25% of the vote in his last countywide race. If Stroger isn't the Democratic nominee, then the Dem wins.
wordslinger
· 6 months ago
--I am sure in a City of 12,000,000 we can find somene better suited than Vallis. –-
Waxon, his name is Vallas. And what's the population of Chicago?
the Other Anonymous
· 6 months ago
Reformer wrote:
Five months ago, Tony Peraica got a whopping 25% of the vote in his last countywide race. If Stroger isn’t the Democratic nominee, then the Dem wins.
And the last time Vallas ran, he won Cook County.
Peraica and Vallas attract a completely different coalition of voters. In my opinion, Peraica loses, even against Stroger; Vallas, though, has a shot against Stroger and possibly some others.
Obamarama
· 6 months ago
I don't see Vallas winning. Let's not forget that he is still over a quarter million in debt and that a large portion of his campaign funds came from Dean. Furthermore, can you imagine the tantrum that Peraica would throw if a lifelong Dem like Vallas won the GOP nomination over him?
WaxonWaxoff... I'll help you out here before someone less kind steps in. The population for the entire state of Illinois is just about 13 million. Chicago is just under 3 million.
Anonymous
· 6 months ago
==Democratic voters turned on Blagojevich== When did that happen? Did I miss an election?
Left of Center
· 6 months ago
Vallas started making calls this afternoon, he is NOT running.
Third Generation Chicago Nativ
· 6 months ago
Cook County, second most populous county in the nation 5,376,741 people 2,449 kilometers 946 miles biggest city in the county, Chicago.
The last few elections Democrats running for any office in Cook County had a nice healthy lead over any Republican candidate (if any existed)
Most Democrats voted for Quinn because they figured he would be Governor, and Blagojevich was the lesser of two evils for the undecided Cook County voters. The undecideds were thrilled with either Judy or Rod, but Judy Baar Topinka comes off as brass, and yes those polka dancing ads with her at the state fair with Ryan, so close to his conviction did not help her.
Don't kid yourself County and City workers will come out and vote and they will vote Democratic.
Third Generation Chicago Nativ
· 6 months ago
I meant not thrilled with either Judy or Rod.
party of one
· 6 months ago
"so close to his conviction"? Had he even been indicted? Of course not
Phineas J. Whoopee
· 6 months ago
===Don’t kid yourself County and City workers will come out and vote and they will vote Democratic===
If it came between Claypool and Vallas County and City workers would not be ashoe in for Claypool.
Captain America
· 6 months ago
Vallas would defeat Stroger without difficulty. He could also beat Brown. Preckwinkle would be more difficult than Brown because she would have some lakefront and liberal support - but it's still doable. Vallas would definitely be competitive against Claypool - I thnk the African-Ameican community might punish Claypool for defeating Stroger -therefore a Vallas victory is still plausible -50/50 - against Claypool.
2ConfusedCrew
· 6 months ago
Perhaps he can join Mr and Mrs Blagoof at 2nd City? BTW who is paying for the Peoria gig?
Disgusted
· 6 months ago
===Perhaps he can join Mr and Mrs Blagoof at 2nd City? BTW who is paying for the Peoria gig?===
Vallas is paying for it....driving in from New Orleans and wouldn't even take gas money. Imagine that, an unselfish public servant in Illinois.
Anonymous
· 6 months ago
#
---Perhaps he can join Mr and Mrs Blagoof at 2nd City? BTW who is paying for the Peoria gig?---
Vallas is driving to Peoria from New Orleans and has refused even gas money. Imagine, an unselfish public servant in Illinois.
freddy
· 6 months ago
I worked with Paul Vallas a number of years and I just cannot see him as a Republican.....I hope he comes to his senses.....he could win, but I think his chances would be less than 50-50.
Big West
· 6 months ago
I'm a bit shocked. I'm proud of the belief in the strength of the Democrats to win, but I think a Vallas vs. Stroger race makes Todd the instant underdog. Go back and look at the '06 Peraica numbers. It was so close that Tony headed off to the County Clerk's office with pitchforks and torches. Vallas has to perform better than Peraica. In fact, the only losing scenario I could imagine is if Republicans rejected him for being too liberal.
scoot
· 6 months ago
Geez...if Vallas was running as a Dem it would a totally opposite reaction here!!!
So with all of these overreactions...it means the Dems are scared.
AND Vallas "may" emphasis on may...may not have a GOP primary opponent so he doesn't need to hurry up and make a decision publicly. It would be exciting if he runs though.
what's he thinking?
· 6 months ago
Vallas would have to be nuts to run as a Republican. Clearly he's been gone too long realize there is no GOP here to help him.
In his defense, Vallas has only run for public office as a Democrat once. That's only half as often as Tony Peraica has run for public office as a Democrat.
reformer
· 6 months ago
There's a bit of revisionist history going on about the '06 Peraica-Stroger race. It wasn't that close. Stroger won with 54% of the vote. Fifty-five percent is considered a landslide.
scoot
· 6 months ago
It doesn't matter whether or not Vallas has been in elected office before, just look at Blago, Burris, & Stroger.
Are you telling me that Vallas couldn't do a better job then these guys?? They have all held public office before they were elected to their high offices.
The anti-Vallas voice isn't making much sense.
Rob_N
· 6 months ago
I'll ask again...
Isn't there a residency restriction on primary candidates.
The primary is in Feb 2010. Paul Vallas was still living in Louisiana as of Feb of this year.
...And Peoria isn't in Cook County. ;)
Rich Miller
· 6 months ago
He has a residence in Cook.
Rob_N
· 6 months ago
Thanks Rich. Though having an empty house in Cook while living in NOLA doesn't exactly mean he's a resident... Heck, does he have a vacation house in Wisconsin? Why not run for Senate against Feingold? :)
(I just read your post saying he ruled it out anyway.)
All Comments
I don't think he'd have any support from the south side. What has he done for residents there lately?
a) keeps Stroger on ballot, afraid to alienate black voters. Vallas wins.
b) Dumps Stroger, nominates someone a hack, Vallas wins.
c) Dumps Stroger, nominates someone qualified, Vallas touts his reform credentials and wins.
Keep in mind that if Claypool & Preckwinkle run in the primary and lose they cannot run in the general election.
he did very well versus blago in south and north cook suburban townships--voters not likely to be put off by the repub label or the party-switching. he'll still have lots of appeal in the city where he also bested blago (losing to Burris i think).
the capmpaingn mantra can switch from what have you done for me lately to what have the dems done TO you lately.
vs Claypool he has a tougher road ahead.
Vallas: A renewed and experienced Vallas is what the people of Cook county need. Vallas is here to help the cook county.
Paul Might not make it through the Circular Firing Squad primary process...where is he on guns, choice, gays, etc..... Plus no one can explain how to poy for jails and hospital
Vallas is a poor candidate with one race on his resume. He is a loser. He doesn't have any money. He can't talk, has a failed record with pubic school systems in three cities and is anti-labor.
So were does his support come from? Palatine? How many voters live there.
Besides, does anyone think Crazy Tony is gonna just roll over for Vallas?
The general election matchup would likely be Vallas vs. Claypool. Given a choice between the ex-Daley aide who defected to the Republicans and the ex-Daley aide who remained a Democrat, just where do you expect voters in overwhelmingly Democratic Cook County to turn to? Besides, Vallas' record of turning the Chicago public schools from an abomination to merely being rotten is hardly a ringing testimonial for Vallas.
there are people who will vote for Stroger reguardless.
2) No other Republican runs, handing Vallas the nomination.
3) Vallas manages to pay off his 2002 campaign debts first.
But isn't this moot? I thought the Mayor of New Orleans announced Vallas was staying?
Voters (GOP, Dems, & Independents) have all reached the saturation point on partisan politics and self-serving politicians.
Dawn of the GOP Dead
Chicago is struck by a pandemic of reanimated zombies, who now have no other desire than to feast on the wages of the living. The cause of the plague is not fully understood by the political community. Despite desperate efforts by the U.S. Government and local civil authorities to control the situation, society has effectively collapsed and the remaining wage earners seek refuge in Indiana. Increasingly infrequent television and radio broadcasts imply that chaos is spreading throughout the county.
This scenario opens in the television studio of WGN in Chicago, where confusion reigns. Paul Vallas a GOP political hero, who earlier stole a helicopter to Louisiana in order to escape the zombie threat, returns when the Chicago Tribune editorial board shines a floodlight into the Loop skyline of a GOP elephant silhouette.
Meanwhile, caught in Chicago for a small GOP fundraiser, Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin led Chicago's SWAT force to raid a tenement building because the residents are ignoring the martial law imposition of delivering the zombies over to National Guard and evacuating private dwellings. The peaceful residents are attacked by their own elected officials, who emerge from their rooms, reanimated by the zombie infection. During the raid, Palin meets Illinois Governor Patrick Quinn, who is part of another SWAT unit. Governor Palin suggests deserting their SWAT force and fleeing the city in Vallas' helicopter later that night. Soon, they find the basement packed full of undead Cook County officials that the living residents had kept from being seized by the National Guard, and the two defeat the zombies.
Later that night, Governors Palin and Quinn meet up with Vallas on the TV station's helipad and they escape Chicago in the station's helicopter, with the intention of reaching the safety of the Alaskan wilderness. During their long flight, they make a pass over Springfield where National Guard troops and GOP vigilantes are taking the situation in stride, combating zombies while holding a political rally against abortion. They see Palin waving from Vallas' helicopter and cheer, as Palin joyfully points a machine gun into the sky and fires and hollar support for the GOPers below. The group stops for fuel at a private airstrip, where Governors Palin and Quinn are both nearly bitten and Vallas nearly shoots Quinn while aiming at a reanimated politician.
Looking for a place to rest, they spot an indoor shopping mall, naturally empty since the Governor's economic policies had drove Illinois businesses bankrupt. After finding that much of the mall is free from zombies, they look for a way in. They find a hidden storage room filled with food which they can get to by breaking a skylight and climbing down a ladder. Finding the area safe, they rest and eat some rations.
Palin and the men now decide to make the mall their own sanctuary, and though Vallas is skeptical, they start enacting her plan. First, to keep the undead from entering the mall, they block the large acrylic glass entrance doors with semi trucks. During this endeavor, Quinn acts recklessly and is bitten by Filan, a Blagojevich appointee who Quinn kept on after becoming governor. Next, the group drive around in a display car, locking up entrance doors. Finally, they destroy the remaining undead inside with armaments they acquired from a gun shop inside the mall, which would make no sense at all, except remember, they are in a Downstate Illinois mall.
Now that the mall is safe, they learn that society outside of the mall is continuing to collapse. Quinn slowly succumbs to the infection, but asks Palin to kill him up as he wants to try "not to come back." Palin reminds Quinn that she is pro-life, and only kills endangered species, which Democrats do not fall under. Quinn dies from the Filan bite he suffered moving the trucks. Palin gives him his chance, but as Quinn's body is reanimated, he begins to discuss raising massive taxes. Palin pistol-whips Quinn and locks him up in the mall basement. Later, stricken with boredom and hopelessness, the novelty of their materialistic utopia wears thin. Our scenario ends as Vallas flies away from the mall at dawn in the helicopter to become Cook County President, as Governor Palin announces her campaign for the US Presidency.
That's how!
Vallas went to help Philly Schools.
Vallas went to help NOLA and their schools rebuild after one of the worst (modern) disasters in US history.
Finally, Vallas is coming back to IL. He tried to warn us in 2002, but voters didn't listen. The men who were his defeators proved to be in as much collusion now as they were then, Blago and Burris.
Vallas has never backed down from a challenge. He is here to save us all!
He will win if Black voters remember he cares. If he can get through the primary vs. who, Peracia? The GOP needs to realize that he is the best candidate. The Oberwies/Roessers will stay out (I hope) as this is basically the city and Cook.
I was beign over the top, but he can win.
I don't think Vallas would beat Preckwinkle or a dark horse like Terry O'Brien who don't bring the baggage the former two do.
I am assuming Vallas has the money to get his message out and isn't vilified by his new party-two big ifs. If he could get guys like Mayor Nagin and others to campaign for him, I think he could carry the black community against Claypool.
A recent poll showed Claypool getting trounced by Vallas based on their names. When party ID was involved it was 50/50. AND I have no idea why Cook County wouldn't want a successful County Prez w/ Vallas's resume??
Adding that Peraica came close to winning in the strong Democratic year of 2006, so it's very possible that Vallas can win.
Preckwinkle and Claypoll have name recognition problems and I don't think that Stroger can win under any circumstances -- it would be hard even if his father was resurrected.
Vallas will have to explain his absence from Illinois politics -- is he really a carpetbagger?
We love to hate our politicians but we love loyalty more than anything else -- and Vallas has not been loyal to Illinoians.
The Republicans should try and get him to run for Governor, he has a much better chance for this office, than Cook County President.
Vallas will get a ton of free press, mostly positive, about his accomplishments both here in the region and in other parts of the country, which should offset any shortfalls in financing his campaign. That free press will not be available to other challengers. Vallas was the guy the power brokers ran out of town after he ran for governor. Those same power brokers offered him nothing to stick around.
Vallas can and should rightfully portray himself as the good government policy wonk reformer guy the Democrats in Cook County and Chicago ran out of town. Those parking meters in Chicago, the sales tax in Cook County and the general attitude by the current office holders in Cook County and the City of Chicago that the residents serve them and not the other way around will lead to his election.
On occasion, Republicans get elected to county wide offices in Cook County, usually in times of voter resentment and anger. Get ready for lightning to strike again.
I'm a democrat and I've only voted for Repubs twice in my life. I voted for Judy Topinka over Blago and crazy Tony Peraica over Stroger. I'd vote for Vallas before anyone else. I admire the man and it would tick off "the powers that be".
All that being said I think the most likely scenario is Claypool wins the primary and then it's Claypool V Vallas. I'd have to give the slight advantage to Claypool in that case. Cook County is overwhelmingly Democrat and Claypool MIGHT be able to get Obama to campaign for him.
In the 2006 race it was clear Obama preferred Claypool over the elder Stroger, but being overly cautious he didn't endorse anyone. Not a great moment in courage for our President.
1. In about 3 months, the coming meltdown at the state level is going to combine with the already toxic anti-Stroger anger to create a potent, anti-Democrat backlash in Illinois. Who wants to vote for the gang that can't shoot straight?
2. Vallas is a darling of the editorial boards, and his entry will be hailed as a potential savior to all of our ills.
3. Vallas still has strong popularity in the African American community, and no matter what happens in the Democratic primary, a large segment of that community is going to be disgruntled with the Democratic party because one of their candidates (Preckwinkle or Stroger) did not win.
4. Because of the massive Democratic party dysfunction in Illinois, it is going to be a magnet for national GOP money -- especially because it is Obama's home state. Vallas will have all the money he needs, and more.
Scenario 2: Some no-name white guy wins the Dem primary and the Dems don't have an African-American on the ticket. Say Stroger/T.P./F.C. all split and someone else slipped-in.
Consider that Obama got more votes in Cook alone last year than Topinka did in the entire state in 2006. A lot more.
Add to that the fact that the Cook GOP is a bigger joke than ever.
Some people may have warm feelings about Vallas now (why I'm not sure - he left the Chicago schools as bad as he found them). But that all changes when the Democrats start painting Vallas as the traitor to the party he would make himself.
Someone needs to ask Vallas who he favored for president last year. If he says Obama, then his party conversion is exposed as phony to Republicans. If he says McCain, then he alienates a boatload of Cook voters.
Let's see how he handles it.
Vallas running is a moot point.
If he decides to run, Vallas should run as an Independent. Rise above the Dem circular firing squad with Claypool, Preckwinkle & Stroger (whoever comes out on top in that primary will be a mess). Plus, the Dem organization turned their back on him in 2002, so why should he come back to them? The Republicans will probably put forward a right wing-nut or wrong-way Tony. In a 3-way race, Vallas comes out on top.
His reform cred, and his independence (ie, run as an Independent, outside of the "organizations") is what's attractive to voters.
NOT REPUBLICAN. INDEPENDENT!
And if you do that, a whole lot of people are going to be upset they are shut out of a system they once controlled. The sob stories are going to be endless in the media. I don't see how I win under that scenario, either.
Step 1. Paul Vallas is running a close race.
Step 2. Vallas suffers a debilitating stroke.
Step 3. Vallas' opponent is stymied, unable to criticize the stricken Vallas.
Step 4. Vallas' camp assures the public that while he is ill, he will fully recover, and asks for their prayers.
Step 5. Vallas wins.
Two things have to happen for Vallas to win. One, he has to face a weak opponent. I'd say right now Stroger qualifies as weak, and possibly Brown as well. Two, he has to get out of the GОP primary. This one is tougher; as the GOP shrinks in Cook County, its primary voters become disproportionately ultra-right wing and ideological. I think Peraica running a subtle race-baiting campaign has the edge.
The last wgae earner was seen trying to get to Palin to tell her the tax eaters were actually made of peny wuise pound foolish former wage earners who were infected due to their own short sitedness and unwillingess to address the zombie problem.
Palin simple muttered braiiiins, killed and ate the man.
If the Trib is going to lobby and put up candidates should't they be regulated by state campaign law? Should't they also face public finaincing caps given their penchant to sell the Cubs to Blago?
But his real record won't stand up to the happy thoughts. He's got plenty of baggage and lots of critics from the cities where he's made a lot of money but had mixed results, at best. He is good at taking credit.
Vallas will never poll higher than he does today. The day he announces a run (if he does) will be the day his numbers start to fall.
By the way, I'm certainly not suggesting that nut Peraica is a better option.
What city is that, and who is Vallis?
Just sayin'
I tend to agree with all who say Vallas has a real chance of winning, especially that he would run from GOP side - he's a liberal and we all know it and it would give the voter a perfect opportunity to stick it to the Dems without actually betraying one's views. And Cook County Dems deserve it and we all want to stick it to them, oh, we want it sooo much! I just don't see IL GOP smart enough to let it happen. Vallas winning primaries would mean huge changes in GOP. And we need 2 parties. This would be good for all. It could be a blueprint for the entire country. But it's IL, smart things like that don't happen here... The parties are too entrenched to allow change.
So my bet is he's not going to run. This is just an academic discussion...
Waxon, his name is Vallas. And what's the population of Chicago?
Five months ago, Tony Peraica got a whopping 25% of the vote in his last countywide race. If Stroger isn’t the Democratic nominee, then the Dem wins.
And the last time Vallas ran, he won Cook County.
Peraica and Vallas attract a completely different coalition of voters. In my opinion, Peraica loses, even against Stroger; Vallas, though, has a shot against Stroger and possibly some others.
WaxonWaxoff... I'll help you out here before someone less kind steps in. The population for the entire state of Illinois is just about 13 million. Chicago is just under 3 million.
When did that happen? Did I miss an election?
The last few elections Democrats running for any office in Cook County had a nice healthy lead over any Republican candidate (if any existed)
Most Democrats voted for Quinn because they figured he would be Governor, and Blagojevich was the lesser of two evils for the undecided Cook County voters. The undecideds were thrilled with either Judy or Rod, but Judy Baar Topinka comes off as brass, and yes those polka dancing ads with her at the state fair with Ryan, so close to his conviction did not help her.
Don't kid yourself County and City workers will come out and vote and they will vote Democratic.
If it came between Claypool and Vallas County and City workers would not be ashoe in for Claypool.
BTW who is paying for the Peoria gig?
BTW who is paying for the Peoria gig?===
Vallas is paying for it....driving in from New Orleans and wouldn't even take gas money. Imagine that, an unselfish public servant in Illinois.
---Perhaps he can join Mr and Mrs Blagoof at 2nd City?
BTW who is paying for the Peoria gig?---
Vallas is driving to Peoria from New Orleans and has refused even gas money. Imagine, an unselfish public servant in Illinois.
So with all of these overreactions...it means the Dems are scared.
AND Vallas "may" emphasis on may...may not have a GOP primary opponent so he doesn't need to hurry up and make a decision publicly. It would be exciting if he runs though.
In his defense, Vallas has only run for public office as a Democrat once. That's only half as often as Tony Peraica has run for public office as a Democrat.
Are you telling me that Vallas couldn't do a better job then these guys?? They have all held public office before they were elected to their high offices.
The anti-Vallas voice isn't making much sense.
Isn't there a residency restriction on primary candidates.
The primary is in Feb 2010. Paul Vallas was still living in Louisiana as of Feb of this year.
...And Peoria isn't in Cook County. ;)
(I just read your post saying he ruled it out anyway.)