I hope Jerry Webber didn't quit his day job yet. If Debbie runs, you can stick a fork in him!
fedup dem
· 2 years ago
Of course, the longer Cong. Weller delays announcing his intentions for 2008, the harder it will be for the Republicans to find a top-notch candidate (more likely, a sacrifical lamb that won't cause further damage) to run if he opts out of a re-election bid.
Carl Nyberg
· 2 years ago
In the '90s I heard it claimed that this district was the most heavily unionized (most households with a union member) in the state.
Obviously, the districts have been redrawn. And many of those union jobs have left the district or disappeared completely.
I've also heard someone who travels in Dem circles say that the Joliet Democrats are most dysfunctional local party organization in the state.
BTW, what are the Democrats willing to offer Jason Wallace, the Green Party candidate, to get out of the race?
Politics is about negotiation. You can't argue Wallace got in the race as a spoiler since he was running before Weller got out.
So, what are the Democrats willing to offer?
wndycty
· 2 years ago
If Debbie runs, she wins. To me the most important thing she can do is to broker an agreement between Congressman Jackson and the Will County group as it relates to the Peotone airport.
butt head
· 2 years ago
Um Carl, until the Green party wins a single election in Illinois I don't think the Democrats need to offer that guy anything. Why try to buy him out when you can just beat him?
If Debbie runs she would be great, but I totally understand why she would want to stay in the Senate too.
Weller is probably seeing the spray paint on the walls.
Fan of the Game
· 2 years ago
Will Sen. Halvorson, as chair of the Senate Rules Committee, allow the ethics bill--that she co-sponsored--out of the committee before she runs for Congress?
The bill has been sitting in the committee since April. All House members voted for it, and the bill is co-sponsored by almost 80% of the Senate membership. Yet, the bill sits as Sen. Halvorson bows to the wishes of Sen. Jones.
I would hope that, if Sen. Halvorson wants to be a U.S. Representative, that she would allow this bill to come out of rules so the Senate can vote on it.
ZC
· 2 years ago
Hopefully this will get the national Dems to take another look at this seat, and the news media too, and quit focusing so much on the maybe-less-vulnerable Kirk.
Yes, Kirk is beatable, but the problem is his district has been pretty thoroughly combed over for Democrats (by Beth-Gash and Seals), and twice it's come up lacking. It's great if you can get 47% of the vote Democrat, but that last 3%+1 can be murderously hard to get.
Weller's district hasn't been combed in a long time. You do a serious voter registration push out there - if the local Dems get organized, or care to - and he might be a balloon ready to pop. Sounds like Weller thinks he might be.
Six Degrees of Separation
· 2 years ago
If Weller drops out and Deb or someone else of her stature runs, no "offer" will be needed; I don't see the Green Party as more than a 1% or 2% swing vote in the 11th. The 11th is a fairly heavy unionized district. However, Weller has received considerable union support, primarily because of all the construction money he brought to the 11th. The Will County Dems may be dysfunctional, but they were successful in replacing former local hero and NBA star George Mikan's Republican nephew Joe with Larry Walsh as County Executive, and have had other successes at the local level.
This begs another question: If Weller drops out, who replaces him on the R ticket?
GOP'er
· 2 years ago
Incredible. The Illinois GOP is still in freefall. The chickens are still coming home to roost after years and years of incompetent leadership.
And Tony "I've got friends in low places" Peraica's candidacy for State's Attorney is further proof the party still doesn't have a clue.
Carl Nyberg
· 2 years ago
And Jason King, the Republican candidate, who figured out Weller wasn't "all that" deserves a mention too.
King has been using You Tube and the Internet to reach out to people.
Fire Ron Guenther
· 2 years ago
if Weller drops out, would Bill Brady consider running? I am surprised the AJ Wilhelmi hype machine hasn't announced his candidacy for the seat.
Super Mega
· 2 years ago
Whoa, slow down people!
Sure the IL GOP is in a free fall, but they have little to no say as to who is running for Congress. The state party is lucky it can pay its bills, let alone play king maker.
Halvorsen would have had a shot under the old district lines. This district takes in Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau, Woodford and McLean counties. Not strong Democrat area and the district was designed as a GOP district.
If Weller does not run and a decent GOP candidate is nominated, I have no question it will be a 'GOP Hold.'
Don't kid yourselves about a Democratic takeover. This district doesn't include the City of Chicago or Southern Cook Suburbs anymore.
BTW, enough with the Green Party stuff. They have no chance. Enough!
Carl Nyberg
· 2 years ago
If a voter is sincerely against occupying Iraq, do you think it sends a stronger message to vote Democrat or to vote Green?
Haven't the Democrats shown that they are unwilling to end the occupation if it means offending the Beltway elites--the same pretentious, clueless clique--who originally bought into the flawed case for invading?
Democrats have no room for complaining about people voting Green on Election Day 2008 if the U.S. military is still occupying Iraq.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
OK - This is my advice to Debbie:
The Congressional district you would be running for has been redrawn to favor the GOP. So running for Congress as a Democrat would mean running with one hand tied behind your back. Any capable GOP candidate, of which there are many, has an edge over you.
But that is not the only negative hits against you right now. This summer's fiscal meltdown and your leadership position in the Senate makes you look like a part of the problem, even though were weren't. You didn't step up in these battles and take a stand, but staying quiet while the sign on your door reads, "Assistant Majority Leader" doesn't help you. It will be so easy right now for your opponent to tie you up with Mr. Jones and Company. Every Jones blemish and your relationship to him would be shown on TV repeatedly by any savvy GOP candidate.
But there is also more negative news regarding a Congressional run, Deb. Your record. In this race you don't want to be The Liberal. Your political positions fit Bloom Township just fine, but would not be the least bit acceptable outside Joliet. So, if you take this gamble, you will only find voters there. The rest of the district will not vote for you. Any capable GOP candidate will roast you on your political positions and the entire campaign will end up with you in a defensive position in Joliet.
The Democrats right now think 2008 will be their year. Its empty hype. Do you want to be woman candidate on a ticket with the top spot headed by another woman? Voters will split their ticket at your expense. You will lose at least 10% of Clinton/Clark voters and you will not gain any votes from the Giuliani/Huckabee voters.
2006 was a fluke. 2008 will not be a repeat. Take a look at the 2006 results in this district. What the Democrats pulled off against Weller in 2006 is your base and it isn't strong enough for you to run on.
Look what you would be giving up! You will be the Senate Majority Leader. After the Jones fiasco, your cohorts would welcome your personality, drive and gender in charge. We always look for a change agent after a guy like Jones, and you are the person who will be selected to reform the Leader's role and clean up the office. Why would you give up to play Don Quixote?
The Democrats courting you don't care about what you would be giving up. They don't care about the unchangable conditions you would face by running in this district. They don't care if you become another Duckworth. But you and your staff are needed right here in Illinois!
Even if you are successful, just how much effect would you have in Washington for Illinois? Right after you are sworn in, you have to start running again since 2010 would be right around the corner.
If you want to be Governor, stay where you are. If you want to make a difference in Illinois, stay where you are. If Bloom is ever going to get the help it needs to fix all the crap we had to endure back in the 70's, please stay right where you are!
Make history in Illinois - with the situation we face right now, we need you HERE!
Rich Miller
· 2 years ago
VanillaMan, as it happens, Halvorson asked about you last night. Apparently, you have a fan.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
We need Debbie here, not in Washington.
Six Degrees of Separation
· 2 years ago
It just occurred to me...Gary Dahl could be a candidate in the 11th, and he is not lacking for money. VM has some good comments on Deb and her challenges, but I think they are a little overblown. Will, Kankakee, Grundy and LaSalle counties are not as R as, say 20 years ago. Don't they all have D county board majorities?
Fire Ron Guenther
· 2 years ago
Will County Board is GOP majority but its county executive, former State Sen. Larry Walsh, is a Dem.
archpundit
· 2 years ago
===Halvorsen would have had a shot under the old district lines. This district takes in Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau, Woodford and McLean counties. Not strong Democrat area and the district was designed as a GOP district.
===If Weller does not run and a decent GOP candidate is nominated, I have no question it will be a ‘GOP Hold.’
The Cook Rating is +1 R with a 53-46 Bush in 2004 and 50-48 Bush (using the new lines) in 2000. It's competitive District. It's an interesting District because the West side of Bloomington is Democratic which is out of character of the rest of the county.
VanillaMan
· 2 years ago
20 years ago is the old Democratic lines. The district used to swing D/R during the 1980 and 1990s until Weller and the GOP redrew the lines. The new lines are GOP favored as of 2000. The new lines are far more rural and southern than before.
So it is still a GOP leaning district for 2008 that is unaffected by Chicagoland political trends.
Anonymous
· 2 years ago
Any of you that think the 11th is a GOP strong district don't know what you are talking about. You have Halvorson, Wilhelmi, Gordon, Dugan, Mcguire, Mautino representing the District in the GA. You have Will County now with the majority of countywide seats being held by Democrats. Grundy county had huge gains with Democratic county positions last election. LaSalle county has gone dem in the past, hell Blago even won it. Kankakee has two Democrats in Springfield. The 11th was only R+1, and we are talking about Dems compete ting in the 14th and 18th which were both R+5. NO question that this seat can be won by a good dem campaign.
God's Country
· 2 years ago
Six Degrees,
The Kankakee County Board is comprised of 17 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
archpundit
· 2 years ago
===2006 was a fluke. 2008 will not be a repeat. Take a look at the 2006 results in this district. What the Democrats pulled off against Weller in 2006 is your base and it isn’t strong enough for you to run on.
Actually, all the polling shows an even worse year for Republicans an, in fact, the Republicans are having an incredibly tough time raising money for the campaign committees. The number of retirements are way up on the Republican side meaning they have far more seats to defend. Clinton could create some problems in that she draws out Republicans, but that's assuming she is the nominee.
A dispirited base, an unpopular war, a housing crisis, high retirements, low fundraising. I'll take the odds on 2006 not being a fluke.
Pat Collins
· 2 years ago
One would think Weller would want to run again to keep some Congressional immunity to being subpoenaed.
Real people could care less about what he does or doesn't do in Central America. If it looks like corruption, that might be different. But as for his wife and her maybe less than savory relations, that is a VERY hard "connection" for the average voter to make.
"Where he lives". Please.
Who in IL, since Ken "king of pork" Gray has actually returned to his district when he left Washington? Darn few.
Carl Nyberg
· 2 years ago
I predict 2008 will be a very bad year for Republicans.
What have they got to run on? Arguing Iraq really is a success? Immigrant bashing? More tax cuts paid for by more borrowing? Gay bashing?
In Illinois the GOP has number of specific issues that exacerbate the negative trends on the national level.
The state party is in disarray. It lacks resources. It has a smaller chunk of the gov't jobs than in the past. And the Republicans on gov't payroll are old and comfortable. The people that want jobs know that they are more likely to get them working with the Dems.
Also, I suspect that the media environment in Illinois is less pro-GOP than in other parts of the country.
Republicans can talk trash about marginal R districts being a lock. But talking trash is easy. Does the GOP have the money, manpower, organization and drive to do what's necessary to win?
My prediction: No, the GOP does not have what it takes to win in Illinois.
In 2008 the GOP will lose IL-10, plus at least one of IL-11, 14 and 18. IL-13, 16 and 19 will at least be close.
Remember, national money is going to be tight for Republicans in 2008. The party is already losing the fundraising battle with the Democrats.
If the GOP can raise $30 million six weeks before the election where is the party going to send that money? To swing states in the presidential race? How about the long list of vulnerable incumbent U.S. Senators?
Incumbents in other states are more likely to get money than open-seat candidates in Illinois. Because of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate it makes much more sense for GOP interest groups to spend their money on Senate races than House races. Once the GOP is the minority party in the U.S. House, it doesn't really matter if they are the minority party by 25 seats or 65 seats. The minority is impotent.
So, any GOP candidate running in an open seat in Illinois better be prepared to raise his/her own money in the final weeks of the campaign, b/c the national party isn't going to be there for him or her.
In 2010 the GOP will lose another seat Illinois.
And in 2012, on a new map there will be from 3-5 hard GOP seats and the rest of the turf will be quite unfriendly.
Betting the future of the party on Bush and invading Iraq seemed like such a good idea in 2002, didn't it?
Sucks having to pay the bills for living too well in the past, eh?
Boone Logan Square
· 2 years ago
To repeat Archpundit, the current district only has a PVI of only R+1.1. It is not a Republican district, but a swing district. Should Halvorson get in with EMILY $, she has an excellent chance to win an open seat.
Given the funding problems of both the state GOP and the national house campaign committee, the Republican nominee may suffer from funding problems in a presidential year, where the Democratic half of the district will be mobilized. If I'm betting money, this district (should Weller drop out) flips next November.
Chicago Cynic
· 2 years ago
Pat,
While I generally agree that Joe and Jane voter have trouble getting their hands around many scandals of this kind, I think it's very easy for people to see a problem with their Congressman living in a foreign country, especially when you have some nice personal enrichment corruption thrown in.
Or let me put it in the form of a rough political ad script:
[Photo of Weller on screen] VO: Congressman Jerry Weller claims to represent you.
[morph to photo of Daniel Ortega with Fidel Castro] VO: Yet he lives in a country run by avowed American enemy Daniel Ortega.
VO: And as your Congressman, he even voted to provide tax breaks for Ortega's Nicaragua at the same time he was making investments there.
[Pic of Halvorson] VO: Isn't it time we had a Congressman who put our needs first for a change?
10th Indy
· 2 years ago
The tenth is not a lock for the dems - after a tough primary the nominee will face a strong and extremely well-funded campaigner in Kirk.
Pat Collins
· 2 years ago
political ad script
*^^* That's good, but let's not forget Weller's classic against Clem. "Hey dude"
And frankly, Halvorson is a prime target for such ads. Not because of her per se, but you can make her "part of the Chicago Democrats that can't get a budget done, but they CAN give them selves a raise" etc.
I think Gov Blago. and Sen. Jones would be hung on her like the albatross.
Chicago Cynic
· 2 years ago
Whether it's Footlik or Seals (both of whom would be excellent candidates), the 10th will be very tough. Possible, but very tough.
And BTW, to whomever implied Dan Seals was a lousy candidate like Lauren Beth Gash, you don't know what you're talking about. Seals ran an amazing campaign that shouldn't have even been competitive. He might have even won if Rahm Emanuel had supported him and not written him off until the final few days.
Anonymous
· 2 years ago
Halvorson is not likely to run for this seat. However, what if Pavich decided that he would run again?
Six Degrees of Separation
· 2 years ago
Both parties have albatrosses they can hang on the other side in 2008.
The D's can hang George Bush out there, and the R's can hang the IL state government out there.
I say it's a wash, and then it gets down to candidate vs. candidate, being personable and how well they present themselves.
Carl Nyberg
· 2 years ago
How closely is Bush associated with brand GOP?
How closely is Blagojevich associated with brand Democrat?
Holding the DC GOP against a Republican Congressional candidate makes sense. This is especially true when one considers how shamelessly partisan the GOP is.
Holding the Springfield Democrats (Blago, Madigan and Jones) against a Dem Congressional candidate makes less sense. There is much less danger in Democrats slavishly lining-up behind bad policies because some leader tells them it's a good idea.
Mindless authoritarianism is much more a GOP thing than a Dem thing.
The Dems vulnerability is not making the case the Springfield Dems are screw-ups. The Dem vulnerability is making the case the DC Dems are feckless in doing what they promise to reign in the excesses of the Bush administration.
The very reason DC Dems are unpopular is the one reason that the GOP can never directly exploit. The best the GOP can hope for is voters supporting Green candidates or staying home.
Captain America
· 2 years ago
I concur with Vsn Man, that I'd prefer to see Senator Halvorson stay in the Illnois Senate. She would be a much better Senate President than Emil Jones.
Carl Nyberg
· 2 years ago
There are easily a half dozen senators who would be better than Jones, right?
The issue isn't whether Halvorson is in the Illinois Senate or not, it's whether the Senate Dems have the courage to do the right thing and dump Jones.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
Bush is an albatross around the GOP's neck. Weller is not as popular in the 11th as people may think. Joliet, LaSalle-Peru, Ottawa, Wilmington, Princeton and parts of Kankakee County are fairly Democratic. If Debbie Halvorson ran, she could beat someone slated in Weller's place or even Weller himself. She is both a good person and an able leader, and I think the DCCC could easily get behind her if Weller steps down or looks particulary vulnerable. Remember, though, that Weller is not nearly as bad off as some GOP members that lost last year, both in terms of the safety of the seat and his actions.
Gary Dahl would not go to D.C. He could self-fund or help fund a Congressional race, but I don't think D.C. allows motor homes to be parked for an entire week. And having talked to Senator Dahl several times and seeing him get worked up about the culture in Springfield, he would probably care less for D.C.
I think people are forgetting that while Weller may be a not-too-nice individual and a shady character, Congressional members think they are all bulletproof and unbeatable. If you read Roy Blunt's press release on the subpoena, he acts like he's never had any dealings with any contractors or insiders. These guys are so full of baloney.
Fun(d)-Raiser
· 2 years ago
Rich, I am semi-familiar with your policy on endorsements and am respectfully familiar with your policy on predictions. That's actually a good, (if not great)policy, but I do like reading Russ Stewart's before and after the elections to see how close he came.
What is your policy on attending fund-raisers, even if you are comped as a friend and/or media member? I am just curious, cf. Lynn Sweet who always goes and gives a rundown on the hors d'oerves, etc.
I do not believe I have read any of your accounts of such festivities.
Just wonderin' on a journalistic level.
Rich Miller
· 2 years ago
I don't write about parties. I write about what I learn at parties.
Fun(d)-Raiser
· 2 years ago
Thanks for the clarity, as always.
1930s Labor Racketeer
· 2 years ago
Carl Nyberg made an excelent point that has been demonstrated for decades. Even as recently as the 80s, during contract negotiations for some Will County-based trade unions, the union representatives and the contractors' representatives would drive together to and from the negotiations.
That alone would be schizophrenic in some areas.
What this means for the '08 congressional election is that anything can happen, and it usually does.
Anonymous
· 2 years ago
Will County permits are at the lowest level since 1997. Building trades are starting to hurt. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of them backing away from Weller(not to mention a few tribune articles).
Pot calling kettle
· 2 years ago
The trend in the district is against Weller. Whether that would still translate to a Dem if Weller were to step down...who knows?
'02 Weller 64% vs. VanDuyne (no real campaign) '04 Weller 58.5% vs. Renner (underfunded, won McLean) '06 Weller 55% vs. Pavich (underfunded, inexperienced)
If the Dems would have kicked in some help for Renner & Pavich, they would have been closer (maybe a winner). An example is '04: Weller's home address was a garage! But with no money to capitalize on Weller's many missteps, the opposition cannot get over the hump.
IMHO, the DCCC needs to rethink. They will pump a ton of money into the 15th next year and lose it to the R nominee who will travel the district with the very popular LaHood. They will put nothing into the 11th, lose it, and continue to say Weller is not beatable. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
El Gallito
· 2 years ago
Luis' GOP oppponent's website is no longer accessible. Any idea why? No tengo la menor idea.
Squideshi
· 2 years ago
FYI, the Democratic candidate has already met with and asked Wallace to drop out of the race; but Wallace did not agree to do so. (This is becoming some what of an annual tradition between Democrats and Greens at all levels.) I think that the Democrats are concerned about Wallace's candidacy because he's a decorated Iraq war veteran who happens to be in sync with even the conservative rural voters on key issues like opposition to a third-airport in Peotone and shipping the world's nuclear waste into Morris to be reprocessed into weapons-grade plutonium. Neither Democrats or Republicans can claim to best represent the residents on these issues, and these tend to be the most important types of issues for anyone living in those areas of Will County. The question that the Democrats should be asking is not how they can get Wallace to drop out of the race but, rather, how they can implement majority elections, using a reform like Instant Runoff Voting. I mean, it's been 7 years since 2000; and if the so-called spoiler problem was such a big deal, you would think that this Democratically controlled House, Senate, and Governor's mansion would have lifted a finger to do something about this. Must not be a very big problem, because they're certainly not at all addressing it. They're the ones in office.
Team Sleep
· 2 years ago
Wire reports have it that Weller is expected to retire no later than Friday. Stay tuned.
Some Guy
· 2 years ago
Let's see -
Phil Crane lost in 2004.
Henry Hyde stepped down in 2006.
Peoria Boy (blanking on his name), and Hastert are already stepping down in 2008. Weller's out.
In a few years the state legislature will have to redraw the map. Barring a miracle, they'll have to look for a seat or two to cut from the existing map. Given how heavily Dem the legislature is currently there are good odds it'll still be majoriy Dem when redistricing comes. (Normally I'd say great odds but great googly moogly things are fouled up down there right now).
Even if Roskam keeps on a-chooglin' and the GOP holds all these seats, the state legislature can pick and choose which low-tenured GOP Congressman they want to throw under the bus.
paddyrollingstone
· 2 years ago
regarding redistricting, it appears that we will lose 1 seat next tome, leaving us with 18. why would the D's not do a map that is like 14 D 4 R?
Kevin O'Connor
· 2 years ago
This rebuttal is in response to the uninformative statement made by "butt head" claiming "until the Green party wins a single election in Illinois I don’t think the Democrats need to offer [Jason Wallace] anything.
The IL Green Party is fairly small in numbers still, mainly because it just became and established party under IL ballot access laws. However, it's the largest growing political organization in the United States and in 2006 state membership doubled. The fact that Greens are a viable option now will only give them more opportunities in the media and branching out to new voters and disillusioned Dems/Pubs. Jason Wallace has already received fair madia coverage for the most part and will continue to gain support toward the general election.
All Comments
Obviously, the districts have been redrawn. And many of those union jobs have left the district or disappeared completely.
I've also heard someone who travels in Dem circles say that the Joliet Democrats are most dysfunctional local party organization in the state.
BTW, what are the Democrats willing to offer Jason Wallace, the Green Party candidate, to get out of the race?
Politics is about negotiation. You can't argue Wallace got in the race as a spoiler since he was running before Weller got out.
So, what are the Democrats willing to offer?
If Debbie runs she would be great, but I totally understand why she would want to stay in the Senate too.
Weller is probably seeing the spray paint on the walls.
The bill has been sitting in the committee since April. All House members voted for it, and the bill is co-sponsored by almost 80% of the Senate membership. Yet, the bill sits as Sen. Halvorson bows to the wishes of Sen. Jones.
I would hope that, if Sen. Halvorson wants to be a U.S. Representative, that she would allow this bill to come out of rules so the Senate can vote on it.
Yes, Kirk is beatable, but the problem is his district has been pretty thoroughly combed over for Democrats (by Beth-Gash and Seals), and twice it's come up lacking. It's great if you can get 47% of the vote Democrat, but that last 3%+1 can be murderously hard to get.
Weller's district hasn't been combed in a long time. You do a serious voter registration push out there - if the local Dems get organized, or care to - and he might be a balloon ready to pop. Sounds like Weller thinks he might be.
This begs another question: If Weller drops out, who replaces him on the R ticket?
And Tony "I've got friends in low places" Peraica's candidacy for State's Attorney is further proof the party still doesn't have a clue.
King has been using You Tube and the Internet to reach out to people.
Sure the IL GOP is in a free fall, but they have little to no say as to who is running for Congress. The state party is lucky it can pay its bills, let alone play king maker.
Halvorsen would have had a shot under the old district lines. This district takes in Will, Kankakee, Grundy, LaSalle, Bureau, Woodford and McLean counties. Not strong Democrat area and the district was designed as a GOP district.
If Weller does not run and a decent GOP candidate is nominated, I have no question it will be a 'GOP Hold.'
Don't kid yourselves about a Democratic takeover. This district doesn't include the City of Chicago or Southern Cook Suburbs anymore.
BTW, enough with the Green Party stuff. They have no chance. Enough!
Haven't the Democrats shown that they are unwilling to end the occupation if it means offending the Beltway elites--the same pretentious, clueless clique--who originally bought into the flawed case for invading?
Democrats have no room for complaining about people voting Green on Election Day 2008 if the U.S. military is still occupying Iraq.
The Congressional district you would be running for has been redrawn to favor the GOP. So running for Congress as a Democrat would mean running with one hand tied behind your back. Any capable GOP candidate, of which there are many, has an edge over you.
But that is not the only negative hits against you right now. This summer's fiscal meltdown and your leadership position in the Senate makes you look like a part of the problem, even though were weren't. You didn't step up in these battles and take a stand, but staying quiet while the sign on your door reads, "Assistant Majority Leader" doesn't help you. It will be so easy right now for your opponent to tie you up with Mr. Jones and Company. Every Jones blemish and your relationship to him would be shown on TV repeatedly by any savvy GOP candidate.
But there is also more negative news regarding a Congressional run, Deb. Your record. In this race you don't want to be The Liberal. Your political positions fit Bloom Township just fine, but would not be the least bit acceptable outside Joliet. So, if you take this gamble, you will only find voters there. The rest of the district will not vote for you. Any capable GOP candidate will roast you on your political positions and the entire campaign will end up with you in a defensive position in Joliet.
The Democrats right now think 2008 will be their year. Its empty hype. Do you want to be woman candidate on a ticket with the top spot headed by another woman? Voters will split their ticket at your expense. You will lose at least 10% of Clinton/Clark voters and you will not gain any votes from the Giuliani/Huckabee voters.
2006 was a fluke. 2008 will not be a repeat. Take a look at the 2006 results in this district. What the Democrats pulled off against Weller in 2006 is your base and it isn't strong enough for you to run on.
Look what you would be giving up! You will be the Senate Majority Leader. After the Jones fiasco, your cohorts would welcome your personality, drive and gender in charge. We always look for a change agent after a guy like Jones, and you are the person who will be selected to reform the Leader's role and clean up the office. Why would you give up to play Don Quixote?
The Democrats courting you don't care about what you would be giving up. They don't care about the unchangable conditions you would face by running in this district. They don't care if you become another Duckworth. But you and your staff are needed right here in Illinois!
Even if you are successful, just how much effect would you have in Washington for Illinois? Right after you are sworn in, you have to start running again since 2010 would be right around the corner.
If you want to be Governor, stay where you are. If you want to make a difference in Illinois, stay where you are. If Bloom is ever going to get the help it needs to fix all the crap we had to endure back in the 70's, please stay right where you are!
Make history in Illinois - with the situation we face right now, we need you HERE!
===If Weller does not run and a decent GOP candidate is nominated, I have no question it will be a ‘GOP Hold.’
The Cook Rating is +1 R with a 53-46 Bush in 2004 and 50-48 Bush (using the new lines) in 2000. It's competitive District. It's an interesting District because the West side of Bloomington is Democratic which is out of character of the rest of the county.
So it is still a GOP leaning district for 2008 that is unaffected by Chicagoland political trends.
The Kankakee County Board is comprised of 17 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
Actually, all the polling shows an even worse year for Republicans an, in fact, the Republicans are having an incredibly tough time raising money for the campaign committees. The number of retirements are way up on the Republican side meaning they have far more seats to defend. Clinton could create some problems in that she draws out Republicans, but that's assuming she is the nominee.
A dispirited base, an unpopular war, a housing crisis, high retirements, low fundraising. I'll take the odds on 2006 not being a fluke.
Real people could care less about what he does or doesn't do in Central America. If it looks like corruption, that might be different. But as for his wife and her maybe less than savory relations, that is a VERY hard "connection" for the average voter to make.
"Where he lives". Please.
Who in IL, since Ken "king of pork" Gray has actually returned to his district when he left Washington? Darn few.
What have they got to run on? Arguing Iraq really is a success? Immigrant bashing? More tax cuts paid for by more borrowing? Gay bashing?
In Illinois the GOP has number of specific issues that exacerbate the negative trends on the national level.
The state party is in disarray. It lacks resources. It has a smaller chunk of the gov't jobs than in the past. And the Republicans on gov't payroll are old and comfortable. The people that want jobs know that they are more likely to get them working with the Dems.
Also, I suspect that the media environment in Illinois is less pro-GOP than in other parts of the country.
Republicans can talk trash about marginal R districts being a lock. But talking trash is easy. Does the GOP have the money, manpower, organization and drive to do what's necessary to win?
My prediction: No, the GOP does not have what it takes to win in Illinois.
In 2008 the GOP will lose IL-10, plus at least one of IL-11, 14 and 18. IL-13, 16 and 19 will at least be close.
Remember, national money is going to be tight for Republicans in 2008. The party is already losing the fundraising battle with the Democrats.
If the GOP can raise $30 million six weeks before the election where is the party going to send that money? To swing states in the presidential race? How about the long list of vulnerable incumbent U.S. Senators?
Incumbents in other states are more likely to get money than open-seat candidates in Illinois. Because of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate it makes much more sense for GOP interest groups to spend their money on Senate races than House races. Once the GOP is the minority party in the U.S. House, it doesn't really matter if they are the minority party by 25 seats or 65 seats. The minority is impotent.
So, any GOP candidate running in an open seat in Illinois better be prepared to raise his/her own money in the final weeks of the campaign, b/c the national party isn't going to be there for him or her.
In 2010 the GOP will lose another seat Illinois.
And in 2012, on a new map there will be from 3-5 hard GOP seats and the rest of the turf will be quite unfriendly.
Betting the future of the party on Bush and invading Iraq seemed like such a good idea in 2002, didn't it?
Sucks having to pay the bills for living too well in the past, eh?
Given the funding problems of both the state GOP and the national house campaign committee, the Republican nominee may suffer from funding problems in a presidential year, where the Democratic half of the district will be mobilized. If I'm betting money, this district (should Weller drop out) flips next November.
While I generally agree that Joe and Jane voter have trouble getting their hands around many scandals of this kind, I think it's very easy for people to see a problem with their Congressman living in a foreign country, especially when you have some nice personal enrichment corruption thrown in.
Or let me put it in the form of a rough political ad script:
[Photo of Weller on screen] VO: Congressman Jerry Weller claims to represent you.
[morph to photo of Daniel Ortega with Fidel Castro] VO: Yet he lives in a country run by avowed American enemy Daniel Ortega.
VO: And as your Congressman, he even voted to provide tax breaks for Ortega's Nicaragua at the same time he was making investments there.
[Pic of Halvorson] VO: Isn't it time we had a Congressman who put our needs first for a change?
*^^* That's good, but let's not forget Weller's classic against Clem. "Hey dude"
And frankly, Halvorson is a prime target for such ads. Not because of her per se, but you can make her "part of the Chicago Democrats that can't get a budget done, but they CAN give them selves a raise" etc.
I think Gov Blago. and Sen. Jones would be hung on her like the albatross.
And BTW, to whomever implied Dan Seals was a lousy candidate like Lauren Beth Gash, you don't know what you're talking about. Seals ran an amazing campaign that shouldn't have even been competitive. He might have even won if Rahm Emanuel had supported him and not written him off until the final few days.
The D's can hang George Bush out there, and the R's can hang the IL state government out there.
I say it's a wash, and then it gets down to candidate vs. candidate, being personable and how well they present themselves.
How closely is Blagojevich associated with brand Democrat?
Holding the DC GOP against a Republican Congressional candidate makes sense. This is especially true when one considers how shamelessly partisan the GOP is.
Holding the Springfield Democrats (Blago, Madigan and Jones) against a Dem Congressional candidate makes less sense. There is much less danger in Democrats slavishly lining-up behind bad policies because some leader tells them it's a good idea.
Mindless authoritarianism is much more a GOP thing than a Dem thing.
The Dems vulnerability is not making the case the Springfield Dems are screw-ups. The Dem vulnerability is making the case the DC Dems are feckless in doing what they promise to reign in the excesses of the Bush administration.
The very reason DC Dems are unpopular is the one reason that the GOP can never directly exploit. The best the GOP can hope for is voters supporting Green candidates or staying home.
The issue isn't whether Halvorson is in the Illinois Senate or not, it's whether the Senate Dems have the courage to do the right thing and dump Jones.
Gary Dahl would not go to D.C. He could self-fund or help fund a Congressional race, but I don't think D.C. allows motor homes to be parked for an entire week. And having talked to Senator Dahl several times and seeing him get worked up about the culture in Springfield, he would probably care less for D.C.
I think people are forgetting that while Weller may be a not-too-nice individual and a shady character, Congressional members think they are all bulletproof and unbeatable. If you read Roy Blunt's press release on the subpoena, he acts like he's never had any dealings with any contractors or insiders. These guys are so full of baloney.
What is your policy on attending fund-raisers, even if you are comped as a friend and/or media member? I am just curious, cf. Lynn Sweet who always goes and gives a rundown on the hors d'oerves, etc.
I do not believe I have read any of your accounts of such festivities.
Just wonderin' on a journalistic level.
That alone would be schizophrenic in some areas.
What this means for the '08 congressional election is that anything can happen, and it usually does.
'02 Weller 64% vs. VanDuyne (no real campaign)
'04 Weller 58.5% vs. Renner (underfunded, won McLean)
'06 Weller 55% vs. Pavich (underfunded, inexperienced)
If the Dems would have kicked in some help for Renner & Pavich, they would have been closer (maybe a winner). An example is '04: Weller's home address was a garage! But with no money to capitalize on Weller's many missteps, the opposition cannot get over the hump.
IMHO, the DCCC needs to rethink. They will pump a ton of money into the 15th next year and lose it to the R nominee who will travel the district with the very popular LaHood. They will put nothing into the 11th, lose it, and continue to say Weller is not beatable. Self-fulfilling prophecy.
Phil Crane lost in 2004.
Henry Hyde stepped down in 2006.
Peoria Boy (blanking on his name), and Hastert are already stepping down in 2008. Weller's out.
In a few years the state legislature will have to redraw the map. Barring a miracle, they'll have to look for a seat or two to cut from the existing map. Given how heavily Dem the legislature is currently there are good odds it'll still be majoriy Dem when redistricing comes. (Normally I'd say great odds but great googly moogly things are fouled up down there right now).
Even if Roskam keeps on a-chooglin' and the GOP holds all these seats, the state legislature can pick and choose which low-tenured GOP Congressman they want to throw under the bus.
http://ilgp.org/elections/current-elected-green...
The IL Green Party is fairly small in numbers still, mainly because it just became and established party under IL ballot access laws. However, it's the largest growing political organization in the United States and in 2006 state membership doubled. The fact that Greens are a viable option now will only give them more opportunities in the media and branching out to new voters and disillusioned Dems/Pubs. Jason Wallace has already received fair madia coverage for the most part and will continue to gain support toward the general election.