CapitolFax.com - Latest Comments in Weller under siege, may not run

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Kevin O'Connor — Sat, 22 Sep 2007 17:47:04 -0000

This rebuttal is in response to the uninformative statement made by "butt head" claiming "until the Green party wins a single election in Illinois I donâ€™t think the Democrats need to offer [Jason Wallace] anything.

http://ilgp.org/elections/c...

The IL Green Party is fairly small in numbers still, mainly because it just became and established party under IL ballot access laws. However, it's the largest growing political organization in the United States and in 2006 state membership doubled. The fact that Greens are a viable option now will only give them more opportunities in the media and branching out to new voters and disillusioned Dems/Pubs. Jason Wallace has already received fair madia coverage for the most part and will continue to gain support toward the general election.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

paddyrollingstone — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 23:04:04 -0000

regarding redistricting, it appears that we will lose 1 seat next tome, leaving us with 18. why would the D's not do a map that is like 14 D 4 R?

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Some Guy — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:35:18 -0000

Let's see -

Phil Crane lost in 2004.

Henry Hyde stepped down in 2006.

Peoria Boy (blanking on his name), and Hastert are already stepping down in 2008. Weller's out.

In a few years the state legislature will have to redraw the map. Barring a miracle, they'll have to look for a seat or two to cut from the existing map. Given how heavily Dem the legislature is currently there are good odds it'll still be majoriy Dem when redistricing comes. (Normally I'd say great odds but great googly moogly things are fouled up down there right now).

Even if Roskam keeps on a-chooglin' and the GOP holds all these seats, the state legislature can pick and choose which low-tenured GOP Congressman they want to throw under the bus.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Team Sleep — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 18:03:08 -0000

Wire reports have it that Weller is expected to retire no later than Friday. Stay tuned.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Squideshi — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 16:42:25 -0000

FYI, the Democratic candidate has already met with and asked Wallace to drop out of the race; but Wallace did not agree to do so. (This is becoming some what of an annual tradition between Democrats and Greens at all levels.) I think that the Democrats are concerned about Wallace's candidacy because he's a decorated Iraq war veteran who happens to be in sync with even the conservative rural voters on key issues like opposition to a third-airport in Peotone and shipping the world's nuclear waste into Morris to be reprocessed into weapons-grade plutonium. Neither Democrats or Republicans can claim to best represent the residents on these issues, and these tend to be the most important types of issues for anyone living in those areas of Will County. The question that the Democrats should be asking is not how they can get Wallace to drop out of the race but, rather, how they can implement majority elections, using a reform like Instant Runoff Voting. I mean, it's been 7 years since 2000; and if the so-called spoiler problem was such a big deal, you would think that this Democratically controlled House, Senate, and Governor's mansion would have lifted a finger to do something about this. Must not be a very big problem, because they're certainly not at all addressing it. They're the ones in office.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

El Gallito — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 16:41:02 -0000

Luis' GOP oppponent's website is no longer accessible. Any idea why? No tengo la menor idea.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Pot calling kettle — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 16:21:08 -0000

The trend in the district is against Weller. Whether that would still translate to a Dem if Weller were to step down...who knows?

'02 Weller 64% vs. VanDuyne (no real campaign)
'04 Weller 58.5% vs. Renner (underfunded, won McLean)
'06 Weller 55% vs. Pavich (underfunded, inexperienced)

If the Dems would have kicked in some help for Renner & Pavich, they would have been closer (maybe a winner). An example is '04: Weller's home address was a garage! But with no money to capitalize on Weller's many missteps, the opposition cannot get over the hump.

IMHO, the DCCC needs to rethink. They will pump a ton of money into the 15th next year and lose it to the R nominee who will travel the district with the very popular LaHood. They will put nothing into the 11th, lose it, and continue to say Weller is not beatable. Self-fulfilling prophecy.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Anonymous — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:58:41 -0000

Will County permits are at the lowest level since 1997. Building trades are starting to hurt. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of them backing away from Weller(not to mention a few tribune articles).

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

1930s Labor Racketeer — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:55:51 -0000

Carl Nyberg made an excelent point that has been demonstrated for decades. Even as recently as the 80s, during contract negotiations for some Will County-based trade unions, the union representatives and the contractors' representatives would drive together to and from the negotiations.

That alone would be schizophrenic in some areas.

What this means for the '08 congressional election is that anything can happen, and it usually does.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Fun(d)-Raiser — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:42:15 -0000

Thanks for the clarity, as always.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Rich Miller — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:29:33 -0000

I don't write about parties. I write about what I learn at parties.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Fun(d)-Raiser — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:26:30 -0000

Rich, I am semi-familiar with your policy on endorsements and am respectfully familiar with your policy on predictions. That's actually a good, (if not great)policy, but I do like reading Russ Stewart's before and after the elections to see how close he came.

What is your policy on attending fund-raisers, even if you are comped as a friend and/or media member? I am just curious, cf. Lynn Sweet who always goes and gives a rundown on the hors d'oerves, etc.

I do not believe I have read any of your accounts of such festivities.

Just wonderin' on a journalistic level.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Team Sleep — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:13:07 -0000

Bush is an albatross around the GOP's neck. Weller is not as popular in the 11th as people may think. Joliet, LaSalle-Peru, Ottawa, Wilmington, Princeton and parts of Kankakee County are fairly Democratic. If Debbie Halvorson ran, she could beat someone slated in Weller's place or even Weller himself. She is both a good person and an able leader, and I think the DCCC could easily get behind her if Weller steps down or looks particulary vulnerable. Remember, though, that Weller is not nearly as bad off as some GOP members that lost last year, both in terms of the safety of the seat and his actions.

Gary Dahl would not go to D.C. He could self-fund or help fund a Congressional race, but I don't think D.C. allows motor homes to be parked for an entire week. And having talked to Senator Dahl several times and seeing him get worked up about the culture in Springfield, he would probably care less for D.C.

I think people are forgetting that while Weller may be a not-too-nice individual and a shady character, Congressional members think they are all bulletproof and unbeatable. If you read Roy Blunt's press release on the subpoena, he acts like he's never had any dealings with any contractors or insiders. These guys are so full of baloney.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Carl Nyberg — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:56:55 -0000

There are easily a half dozen senators who would be better than Jones, right?

The issue isn't whether Halvorson is in the Illinois Senate or not, it's whether the Senate Dems have the courage to do the right thing and dump Jones.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Captain America — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:47:29 -0000

I concur with Vsn Man, that I'd prefer to see Senator Halvorson stay in the Illnois Senate. She would be a much better Senate President than Emil Jones.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Carl Nyberg — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:45:24 -0000

How closely is Bush associated with brand GOP?

How closely is Blagojevich associated with brand Democrat?

Holding the DC GOP against a Republican Congressional candidate makes sense. This is especially true when one considers how shamelessly partisan the GOP is.

Holding the Springfield Democrats (Blago, Madigan and Jones) against a Dem Congressional candidate makes less sense. There is much less danger in Democrats slavishly lining-up behind bad policies because some leader tells them it's a good idea.

Mindless authoritarianism is much more a GOP thing than a Dem thing.

The Dems vulnerability is not making the case the Springfield Dems are screw-ups. The Dem vulnerability is making the case the DC Dems are feckless in doing what they promise to reign in the excesses of the Bush administration.

The very reason DC Dems are unpopular is the one reason that the GOP can never directly exploit. The best the GOP can hope for is voters supporting Green candidates or staying home.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Six Degrees of Separation — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:27:09 -0000

Both parties have albatrosses they can hang on the other side in 2008.

The D's can hang George Bush out there, and the R's can hang the IL state government out there.

I say it's a wash, and then it gets down to candidate vs. candidate, being personable and how well they present themselves.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Anonymous — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 14:26:36 -0000

Halvorson is not likely to run for this seat. However, what if Pavich decided that he would run again?

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Chicago Cynic — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:43:20 -0000

Whether it's Footlik or Seals (both of whom would be excellent candidates), the 10th will be very tough. Possible, but very tough.

And BTW, to whomever implied Dan Seals was a lousy candidate like Lauren Beth Gash, you don't know what you're talking about. Seals ran an amazing campaign that shouldn't have even been competitive. He might have even won if Rahm Emanuel had supported him and not written him off until the final few days.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Pat Collins — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:41:03 -0000

political ad script

*^^* That's good, but let's not forget Weller's classic against Clem. "Hey dude"

And frankly, Halvorson is a prime target for such ads. Not because of her per se, but you can make her "part of the Chicago Democrats that can't get a budget done, but they CAN give them selves a raise" etc.

I think Gov Blago. and Sen. Jones would be hung on her like the albatross.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

10th Indy — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:32:36 -0000

The tenth is not a lock for the dems - after a tough primary the nominee will face a strong and extremely well-funded campaigner in Kirk.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Chicago Cynic — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 13:16:28 -0000

Pat,

While I generally agree that Joe and Jane voter have trouble getting their hands around many scandals of this kind, I think it's very easy for people to see a problem with their Congressman living in a foreign country, especially when you have some nice personal enrichment corruption thrown in.

Or let me put it in the form of a rough political ad script:

[Photo of Weller on screen] VO: Congressman Jerry Weller claims to represent you.

[morph to photo of Daniel Ortega with Fidel Castro] VO: Yet he lives in a country run by avowed American enemy Daniel Ortega.

VO: And as your Congressman, he even voted to provide tax breaks for Ortega's Nicaragua at the same time he was making investments there.

[Pic of Halvorson] VO: Isn't it time we had a Congressman who put our needs first for a change?

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Boone Logan Square — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 12:48:42 -0000

To repeat Archpundit, the current district only has a PVI of only R+1.1. It is not a Republican district, but a swing district. Should Halvorson get in with EMILY $, she has an excellent chance to win an open seat.

Given the funding problems of both the state GOP and the national house campaign committee, the Republican nominee may suffer from funding problems in a presidential year, where the Democratic half of the district will be mobilized. If I'm betting money, this district (should Weller drop out) flips next November.

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Carl Nyberg — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 12:39:57 -0000

I predict 2008 will be a very bad year for Republicans.

What have they got to run on? Arguing Iraq really is a success? Immigrant bashing? More tax cuts paid for by more borrowing? Gay bashing?

In Illinois the GOP has number of specific issues that exacerbate the negative trends on the national level.

The state party is in disarray. It lacks resources. It has a smaller chunk of the gov't jobs than in the past. And the Republicans on gov't payroll are old and comfortable. The people that want jobs know that they are more likely to get them working with the Dems.

Also, I suspect that the media environment in Illinois is less pro-GOP than in other parts of the country.

Republicans can talk trash about marginal R districts being a lock. But talking trash is easy. Does the GOP have the money, manpower, organization and drive to do what's necessary to win?

My prediction: No, the GOP does not have what it takes to win in Illinois.

In 2008 the GOP will lose IL-10, plus at least one of IL-11, 14 and 18. IL-13, 16 and 19 will at least be close.

Remember, national money is going to be tight for Republicans in 2008. The party is already losing the fundraising battle with the Democrats.

If the GOP can raise $30 million six weeks before the election where is the party going to send that money? To swing states in the presidential race? How about the long list of vulnerable incumbent U.S. Senators?

Incumbents in other states are more likely to get money than open-seat candidates in Illinois. Because of the filibuster in the U.S. Senate it makes much more sense for GOP interest groups to spend their money on Senate races than House races. Once the GOP is the minority party in the U.S. House, it doesn't really matter if they are the minority party by 25 seats or 65 seats. The minority is impotent.

So, any GOP candidate running in an open seat in Illinois better be prepared to raise his/her own money in the final weeks of the campaign, b/c the national party isn't going to be there for him or her.

In 2010 the GOP will lose another seat Illinois.

And in 2012, on a new map there will be from 3-5 hard GOP seats and the rest of the turf will be quite unfriendly.

Betting the future of the party on Bush and invading Iraq seemed like such a good idea in 2002, didn't it?

Sucks having to pay the bills for living too well in the past, eh?

Re: Weller under siege, may not run

Pat Collins — Wed, 19 Sep 2007 12:37:44 -0000

One would think Weller would want to run again to keep some Congressional immunity to being subpoenaed.

Real people could care less about what he does or doesn't do in Central America. If it looks like corruption, that might be different. But as for his wife and her maybe less than savory relations, that is a VERY hard "connection" for the average voter to make.

"Where he lives". Please.

Who in IL, since Ken "king of pork" Gray has actually returned to his district when he left Washington? Darn few.