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Making it even tougher is that Madigan has backed Lipinski in the past so it's very much an uphill fight, but one worth having to those who are doing it.
Granted, it remains to be seen if such "harassment action" can be translated to a higher level like a Congressional primary... but still. ;)
There's little question that Dan Lipinski is a mope. But that district is very susceptible to precinct captain influence - perhaps more than any other in Illinois.
Oh and to see their effect in the 14th CD would be interesting. If they can raise enough to help the nominee other than Lipinski and if they can build an organization. There's no reason to assume they can't win. Of course I'm being optimistic.
His campaign has a long, long, long way to go though.
Yes, he's their mope ;)
The DKos post was about a) a Republican defending the Lipinski (apparently the only person to step up to defend him) and b) Lipinski's record of voting with the Republicans/Bush on critical issues, a record which runs counter to his deep blue district which went solidly for both Kerry and Gore.
We are too busy earning our livings, paying our taxes, and living our lives...and we don't like outsiders like Kos and netroots sticking their noses in our business...
...and Lip is not a mope. He may be a little too conservative but definitely not a mope.
And most voters don't know what Daily Kos is. However, it does provide a place for activists to come together to volunteer and donate. Often times people will organize locally by using the web site as a place to meet. While the money is often national, the volunteers are often local and quite good at self-organizing.
If the Dem primary turns out a lot of new women voters, that could upset things for Lip II if Pera can get his name and ideas out there to them.
Wake up loonies! Voters are not as ridiculous as you are!
Go ahead and gut Morganthaler and Lipinski. Both candidates are far more normal politically than you are. While I can't stand Lipinski, (because of how he got his job), I'd happily vote for the GOP candidate in his district if I lived there. Morganthaler is utterly normal - so the time has come for the Netroots to start showing some political reality by allowing normal people to run in their party.
===Wake up loonies! Voters are not as ridiculous as you are!
===Both candidates are far more normal politically than you are.
How is Lipinski more normal than I am?
Except recent polling shows if voters knew what they know now--Lieberman would have lost. Remember,he won by lying about the war.
60% of the public wants the war to end within 1 year. 60% oppose the FISA law without warrants being required. Over 60% favor embryonic stem cell research. How are these not normal?
Normal != >51%
if voters knew what they know now–Lieberman would have lost
And that new thing is? The war was a HUGE issue. How can you say CN voters did NOT know his war record? It was why he didnt' get the nomination.
===At a July 2006 debate with challenger Ned Lamont, Lieberman estimated that troops would be coming home by the end of 2006 and that half would be out of Iraq by the end of 2007, saying, "So I am confident that the situation is improving enough on the ground that by the end of this year, we will begin to draw down significant numbers of American troops, and by the end of the next year more than half of the troops who are there now will be home."
"No one wants to end the war in Iraq more than I do." - Joe Lieberman, 10/18/06.
"I want to help end the war in Iraq." - Joe Lieberman, 8/11/06
I'm just not sure yet it'll matter much in this Little Lip race, but we'll see.
I've read her weblog and if she sounds like someone I'd want to vote for, doesn't that mean Dems have changed... at least a bit maybe?
But how in Hades do you do both at the same time? Lil' Lip is Tennessee's unofficial congresmman.
I've lived there for 20+ years, and it is safe to say it is a moderate district, with a vast pro-life contingent. The large Catholic Churches in the district are packed every weekend. The main reason Pera will lose is because his top agenda item is that he is pro-choice. It might help him raise money from the liberals on the north side of Chicago and the east coast, but it won't get him more than 25% of the vote in the 3rd Congessional District.
Funny that Pera is so vehemently pro-choice but back in '96 when he ran for a state seat he was viewed as pro-life and was closely tied to the Lipinski camp.
A majority of voters in the 3rd district are Democrats that voted for Gore and Kerry, but the percentage of actual liberals in the district is at most 25%.
It's a 20% Hispanic District as well. This isn't 1980 and while the challenge is great to organize the voters in the 3rd since the wards have generally discouraged turnout in primaries for those not connected, it's not a conservative district. It's more conservative than other Districts in the city, but it's only performs 7% less than does Rahm's 5th District.
Getting those less organized voters to turnout and know Pera's name is the primary challenge. That's a big one, but it's not a basic ideological problem.
Plus, the Latino vote is rapidly being brought into the fold (Cicero and Berwyn Towships, 13, 14, etc.).
Also, as far as conservative goes, that district produces a ton of conservative Dem state legislators, aldermen, etc. More than any other Chicago district, to be sure.
My ultimate point here, I think, is that Pera is gonna have to raise a fortune, which he hasn't yet done, get on TV in a big way and super-flood the zone with his message if he has any hope of winning. I just don't see it yet.
What it CAN do is provide a rallying point for people who are mad, but not sure what to do about it.
What is can not do is create those people, or "raise their awareness" to use the phrase.
And, frankly, incumbents are very hard to beat in primaries, even with motivated locals.
Ask Patricia Lindner and Mark Beaubien.
A few hundred dollars in a race that happened 11 years ago does not make one "closely tied to the Lipinski camp".... Please.
"Challenger" Jerry Bennett is far more closely tied to the Lipinski camp seeing as how his ringing endorsement of Dan Lipinski was on Lipinski's homepage for some time.
I see the same problems, but I'd say the solution is different. Cable TV would be a good buy in that area and I'd say organizing is his most important aspect. Getting people out to vote is the hardest part because virtually no one not connected to the ward organizations shows up in these areas so you have to create your own organizing system. The good news is that it's a geographically compact area, the bad news is that your only way to ID voters is interest group lists since these are people largely off the radar.
He'll need to do some radio and certainly lots of mailing and targeted TV on cable. But the key in races where you are overtaking organizational politics that still function, but have a much smaller base than in the past is to find the voters and contact them regularly and get a viral campaign going amongst people who never felt connected to the organizations in those areas. It's not easy, and I cannot say that Mark has that ability to inspire people--though I think it's possible.
Add to that, Obama being on the ballot in February, and a lot of those kind of voters will be going out to the polls--you hit them with what media you can and hope they can put you over the top.
Much of what the ward orgs need is low turnout. If you can match them with turnout through organizing, you need that extra push of buzz and media to win.
Before 2004, I'd have said it was impossible. Now, I'd say it's really, really hard to pull off.
I think the Mangieri race makes both of our points because they aren't that far off--the organization put their weight behind Mangieri and yet they could only pull off a draw. That isn't the powerful organizations that can control everything.
And whenever someone runs a campaign to be the one who topples the old system, it's a low probability of success. That said, with the demographic changes going on there (and Lipinski being especially horrible on immigration) it will happen. Is this the year? I hope so, but we won't know until February 5th.
Add to that Lipinski is lazy, doesn't raise any money, and is god awful in person, there is an opening. The bad news is Madigan is the best about getting the old system to bring out the votes and he's interested in the race.
If HRC knocks Obama out in Iowa first, a lot of those Obama voters are going to stay home or cast a protest vote on the GOP side instead for Ron Paul.
Define "a lot." And then get out your checkbook for a nice side bet.
I don't think you can go up against those captains with no real cash and no fantabulous endorser. Plus, Little Lip has the brand name.
It's just too much to overcome with the relatively modest campaign kitty that Pera is building and the smallish precinct operation he'll have. Targeted state legislative races routinely run above $500K. It doesn't look like Pera will even have that.
The big secret here is that the powers that be are saving that seat for someone else down the road. They have to keep Pera out and the mope in so they can put their own (way better) person into that slot a few years from now.
Some classic Kos Dems include so called centrists like Jim Webb in VA and Jon Tester in MT. It's not about ideological litmus tests. But don't let the facts get in the way of conventional MSM wisdom. DailyKos is NOT synonymous with moveon.org.
That said, Mark Pera ran a lackluster campaign in '96 and as much as I despise little Lip and wish he would be defeated, Pera doesn't have a snowballs chance in hell to win in that district.
Nor does Kos darling Daniel Biss in his run against Beth Coulson for that matter. Frankly I think this is the worst choice of a race for Kos. Beth Coulson is a great moderate rep - probably my favorite Republican in the GA (ok, it's a short list). She doesn't deserve the Kos treatment.
Pera is too deep blue for the district. That's my point. If he was running in an open seat in Rahm or Jan's district, he'd have a better shot than running against Little Lip.
And for those on the far left that believe that Bennett is running just to foil Pera, you're detached from reality. A longtime mayor and the Chairman of CMAP isn't a Lipinski plant. Bennett is his own man. My bet is that he gets more votes than Pera.
There is no mystery here. Hastert and his peeps can't stand the idea of Chris Lauzen maybe getting his seat and they'll play any game if they think it might work to Lauzen's disadvantage. It's not even clear if resignation would even hurt Lauzen at this point though.
Last time we did this it was a beer that Lieberman would crush Lemont but some outragous percent. I don't think I hit the percent but Lieberman crushed Lemont none the less.
Paul's this option sitting out there for people to complain. He's a wildcard sitting out there for people to play.
In places like the IL-3rd he's got this potential to pull a lot of complainers into the GOP primary. I don't think Obama is going to get the complainer-and-angry vote especially when his campaign looks like it's running out of gas.
So you just have to pull the angry margin from overwhelmingly regular Dem districts like the third to get this big number for Paul.
I think these Paul people will help Oberweis in Il-14 where this sort of radical libertarian line has appeal too.
I don't pretend to science here. Just my gut from talking to people.